by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2022 08:37:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.2 percent from September 2021.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $684.0 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, but 8.2 percent above September 2021. ... The July 2022 to August 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.3% to up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.1% in September.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 7.2% on a YoY basis.

Sales in September were below expectations, however sales in July and August were revised up, combined.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2022 08:37:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for September will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2022 03:31:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from economist Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 8, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

• Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 31% above one year ago.

Highlighting the roller coaster ride that the housing market and its participants have been on in the last few years, one’s take on the current number of homes for sale depends very much on the comparison point. After a period of unusually hot activity, financial conditions are cooling demand in the housing market and there are substantially more homes for-sale compared to one year ago. However, the market still falls short of pre-pandemic inventory levels by an even greater amount.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 15% from one year ago.

This week marks the fourteenth straight week of year over year declines in the number of new listings coming up for sale. As mortgage rates near 7 percent, which is a level not seen in more than two decades, sellers who are also trying to buy a home, nearly 3 of every 4 potential sellers, have had to alter their trade-up plans. It appears that many have put selling on hold despite record levels of home equity, as higher mortgage rates and home prices sap purchasing power.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.

Then the Realtor.com data was stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row.  This was due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales have fallen sharply.

Now YoY inventory is increasing again, suggesting sales are off more than new listings.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2022 01:07:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices to National Average Wage Index

A brief excerpt:

One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately, most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).
...
The National Average Wage Index increased to $60,575.07 in 2021, up 8.89% from $55,628.60 in 2020. This was the largest percentage increase in wages since 1981 - another reason to compare the current housing cycle to the 1978 to 1982 period (not the housing bubble and bust).

As of 2022, house prices were well above the median historical ratio - and at the level of the bubble peak - even though wages increased sharply in 2021. This suggests house prices are too high based on fundamentals, and I expect house prices to spend 7 years in purgatory.

There is more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2022 11:17:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in September. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 7.0%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 7.3%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.6%. Core PCE is for August and increased 4.9% year-over-year.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Motor Fuel" decreased at a 45% annualized rate in September.

Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up between 3.7% annualized in the Midwest and almost 13% in the South with an average of close to 10% annualized. The year-over-year increase was larger in September than in August.  This data is lagged, and actually rent growth has slowed in recent months.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2022 08:55:00 AM

With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2023.

From Social Security: Social Security Announces 8.7 Percent Benefit Increase for 2023

Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for approximately 70 million Americans will increase 8.7 percent in 2023, the Social Security Administration announced today. On average, Social Security benefits will increase by more than $140 per month starting in January.

The 8.7 percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will begin with benefits payable to more than 65 million Social Security beneficiaries in January 2023. Increased payments to more than 7 million SSI beneficiaries will begin on December 30, 2022. (Note: some people receive both Social Security and SSI benefits). The Social Security Act ties the annual COLA to the increase in the Consumer Price Index as determined by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.
...
Some other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) will increase to $160,200 from $147,000.

Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (8.7% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments.

The contribution and benefit base will be $160,200 in 2023.

The National Average Wage Index increased to $60,575.07 in 2021, up 8.89% from $55,628.60 in 2020 (used to calculate contribution base). This was the largest percentage increase in wages since the early '80s.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2022 08:36:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,500, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 206,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 211,500.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2022 08:31:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the monthly seasonally adjusted all items increase. These increases were partly offset by a 4.9-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 2.1 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the natural gas and electricity indexes increased.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in September, as it did in August. The indexes for shelter, medical care, motor vehicle insurance, new vehicles, household furnishings and operations, and education were among those that increased over the month. There were some indexes that declined in September, including those for used cars and trucks, apparel, and communication.

The all items index increased 8.2 percent for the 12 months ending September, a slightly smaller figure than the 8.3-percent increase for the period ending August. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.6 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 19.8 percent for the 12 months ending September, a smaller increase than the 23.8-percent increase for the period ending August. The food index increased 11.2 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

Both CPI and core CPI were above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2022 08:29:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week (likely impact from Hurricane Ian).

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.5% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 8.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 6.5% YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2022 02:06:00 PM

"Purposefully moving" towards a more restrictive policy.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 20-21, 2022. Excerpt:

In their assessment of the effects of policy actions and communications to date, participants concurred that the Committee's actions to raise expeditiously the target range for the federal funds rate demonstrated its resolve to lower inflation to 2 percent and to keep inflation expectations anchored at levels consistent with that longer-run goal. Participants noted that the Committee's commitment to restoring price stability, together with its purposeful policy actions and communications, had contributed to a notable tightening of financial conditions over the past year that would likely help reduce inflation pressures by restraining aggregate demand. Participants observed that this tightening had led to substantial increases in real interest rates across the maturity spectrum. Most participants remarked that, although some interest-sensitive categories of spending—such as housing and business fixed investment—had already started to respond to the tightening of financial conditions, a sizable portion of economic activity had yet to display much response. They noted also that inflation had not yet responded appreciably to policy tightening and that a significant reduction in inflation would likely lag that of aggregate demand. Participants observed that a period of real GDP growth below its trend rate, very likely accompanied by some softening in labor market conditions, was required. They agreed that, by moving its policy purposefully toward an appropriately restrictive stance, the Committee would help ensure that elevated inflation did not become entrenched and that inflation expectations did not become unanchored. These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability.

In light of the broad-based and unacceptably high level of inflation, the intermeeting news of higher-than-expected inflation, and upside risks to the inflation outlook, participants remarked that purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk-management considerations. Many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action. Several participants underlined the need to maintain a restrictive stance for as long as necessary, with a couple of these participants stressing that historical experience demonstrated the danger of prematurely ending periods of tight monetary policy designed to bring down inflation. Several participants observed that as policy moved into restrictive territory, risks would become more two-sided, reflecting the emergence of the downside risk that the cumulative restraint in aggregate demand would exceed what was required to bring inflation back to 2 percent. A few of these participants noted that this possibility was heightened by factors beyond the Committee's actions, including the tightening of monetary policy stances abroad and the weakening global economic outlook, that were also likely to restrain domestic economic activity in the period ahead.
emphasis added