by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 09:22:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

Red is single family units. Currently there are 794 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This is below the previous six months, and 36 thousand below the recent peak in April and May. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints.

Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 928 thousand multi-family units under construction.  This is the highest level since December 1973! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.

Combined, there are 1.722 million units under construction. This is the all-time record number of units under construction.

There is much more in the post.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 08:42:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,425,000. This is 4.2 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,488,000 and is 8.8 percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,563,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 855,000; this is 6.1 percent below the revised September figure of 911,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 556,000.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,526,000. This is 2.4 percent below the revised September rate of 1,564,000 and is 10.1 percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,698,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 839,000; this is 3.6 percent below the revised September figure of 870,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 633,000 in October.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in October compared to September.   Multi-family starts were up 17.8% year-over-year in October. 

Single-family starts (red) decreased in October and were down 20.8% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery.

Total housing starts in October were above expectations, however, starts in August and September were revised down slightly, combined.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 08:33:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 225,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 218,750 to 219,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 221,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 09:06:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for October. The consensus is for 1.410 million SAAR, down from 1.439 million SAAR.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims, up from 225 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of -8.0, up from -8.7.

• At 11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 03:49:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October; California Sales off 37% YoY, Prices Fall; Early Read on October Sales

A brief excerpt:

California doesn’t report monthly inventory numbers, but they do report the change in months of inventory. Here is the press release from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales bear brunt of higher interest rates in October, C.A.R. reports

October’s sales pace was down 10.4 percent on a monthly basis from 305,680 in September and down 36.9 percent from a year ago, when 434,170 homes were sold on an annualized basis. ...

California’s median home price declined 2.5 percent in October to $801,190 from the $821,680 recorded in September. The October price was 0.3 percent higher than the $798,440 recorded last October and was the smallest year-over-year price gain in 29 months.

In October, sales were down 29.2% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) for these markets.

Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in October.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 12:02:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Demand for design services decreases considerably

Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October, according to a new report from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7, the first decline in billings since January 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings). Inquiries into new projects continued to grow in October with a score of 52.3, while the value of new design contracts declined, with a score of 48.6.

“Economic headwinds have been steadily mounting, and finally led to weakening demand for new projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Firm backlogs are healthy and will hopefully provide healthy levels of design activity against fewer new projects entering the pipeline should this weakness persist.”
...
• Regional averages: Midwest (50.8); South (50.6); Northeast (50.3); West (49.6)

• Sector index breakdown: institutional (54.3); mixed practice (50.8); multi-family residential (46.1); commercial/industrial (45.9)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.7 in October, down from 51.7 in September. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index had been positive for 20 consecutive months.   This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment in early 2023, but if the weakness persists - a slowdown in CRE investment later in 2023.

Note that multi-family billing turned down in September and declined again in October, and if that continues, we will see a downturn in multi-family starts sometime in 2023.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 10:07:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 33, down from 35 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Declines for 11 Consecutive Months as Housing Weakness Continues

Elevated interest rates, stubbornly high building material costs and declining affordability conditions that are pushing more buyers to the sidelines continue to drag down builder sentiment.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its 11th straight monthly decline in November, dropping five points to 33, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the lowest confidence reading since June 2012, with the exception of the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

“Higher interest rates have significantly weakened demand for new homes as buyer traffic is becoming increasingly scarce,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “With the housing sector in a recession, the Biden administration and new Congress must turn their focus to policies that lower the cost of building and allow the nation’s home builders to expand housing production.”

To bring more buyers into the marketplace, 59% of builders report using incentives, with a big increase in usage from September to November. For example, in November, 25% of builders say they are paying points for buyers, up from 13% in September. Mortgage rate buy-downs rose from 19% to 27% over the same time frame. And 37% of builders cut prices in November, up from 26% in September, with an average price of reduction of 6%. This is still far below the 10%-12% price cuts seen during the Great Recession in 2008.”
...
All three HMI components posted declines in November. Current sales conditions fell six points to 39, sales expectations in the next six months declined four points to 31 and traffic of prospective buyers fell five points to 20.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell six points to 41, the Midwest dropped two points to 38, the South fell seven points to 42 and the West posted a five-point decline to 29
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast, and the lowest level since 2012 (excluding the two-month drop at the beginning of the pandemic). 

The "traffic of prospective buyers" is now well below breakeven at 20 (below 50).

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 09:21:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production decreased 0.1 percent in October, and its gain in September was revised down to 0.1 percent. Manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent in October, and its increases in July, August, and September were all lower than previously reported. In October, the index for mining stepped down 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities fell 1.5 percent. At 104.7 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in October was 3.3 percent above its year-earlier reading. Capacity utilization decreased 0.2 percentage point in October to 79.9 percent, a rate that is 0.3 percentage point above its long-run (1972–2021) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 79.9% is 0.3% above the average from 1972 to 2021.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased in October to 104.7. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

The change in industrial production was below consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 08:39:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.3% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.3 percent from October 2021.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $694.5 billion, up 1.3 percent from the previous month, and 8.3 percent above October 2021. ... The August 2022 to September 2022 percent change was unrevised from virtually unchanged.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 1.0% in October.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 7.4% on a YoY basis.

Sales in October were above expectations, however sales in August and September were revised up, combined.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2022 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 11, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Veterans Day.

... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 88 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week and was 46 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates decreased last week as signs of slower inflation pushed Treasury yields lower. The 30- year fixed rate saw the largest single-week decline since July 2022, dropping to 6.9 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity, adjusted to account for the Veterans Day holiday, increased in response to the drop in rates – driven by a 4 percent rise in home purchase applications. Purchase applications increased for all loan types, and the average purchase loan dipped to its smallest amount since January 2021. Refinance activity remained depressed, down 88 percent over the year. There is very little refinance incentive with rates so much higher than last year.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 6.90 percent from 7.14 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.77 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year.

The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 46% year-over-year unadjusted.

The purchase index is 7% below the pandemic low and just up from the lowest level since 2015.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).