by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2022 08:15:00 AM

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Metrics Improve Week to Week and Outpace 2019

U.S. hotel performance came in higher than the previous week and showed improved comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Nov. 12.

Nov. 6-12, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 64.6% (+0.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$148.43 (+17.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$95.89 (+18.2%)

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will decline into the Winter.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2022 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.43 million SAAR in October

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October; California Sales off 37% YoY, Prices Fall; Early Read on October Sales

• Lawler: Are US Rents Falling?

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October


This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

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by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is October New Home sales.

For manufacturing, the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week.

----- Monday, November 21st -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, November 22nd -----
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

----- Wednesday, November 23rd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225 thousand initial claims, up from 222 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 570 thousand SAAR, down from 603 thousand in September.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of November 1-2, 2022

----- Thursday, November 24th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 25th -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2022 08:27:00 PM

NOTE: COVID stats are updated on Fridays.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths).  Data has switched to weekly.

NOTE: Cases have declined almost 75% from the recent peak, and deaths lag cases - so we might see weekly deaths below 2,000 soon.

Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Week2	280,711	289,884	≤35,0001
Hospitalized2	21,275	21,722	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2	2,222	2,347	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2022 02:47:00 PM

From BofA:

Existing home sales actually fell less than we expected, implying slightly stronger brokers’ commissions in 4Q. As a result, our tracking estimate for residential investment in 4Q edged up. That said, after rounding, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate was unchanged at 1.3% q/q saar. [Nov 18th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +0.9% (qoq ar). [Nov 18th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.2 percent on November 17, down from 4.4 percent on November 16. [Nov 17th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2022 11:41:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.43 million SAAR in October

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $379,100, a gain of 6.6% from October 2021 ($355,700), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 128 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 6.6%. The YoY increase in October was the lowest since June 2020. Note that the median price usually starts falling seasonally in July, so the 1.1% decline in October in the median price was partially seasonal, however the 8.4% decline over the last four months has been much larger than the usual seasonal decline.

It is likely the median price will be down year-over-year in a few months.

There is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2022 10:12:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October

Existing-home sales retreated for the ninth straight month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year declines.

Total existing-home sales - completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – decreased 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October. Year-over-year, sales dropped by 28.4% (down from 6.19 million in October 2021).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.22 million units, which was down 0.8% from both September and one year ago (1.23 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.1 months in September and 2.4 months in October 2021.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in October (4.43million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 28.4% below the October 2021 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.22 million in October from 1.23 million in September.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was essentially unchanged year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2021.

Months of supply (red) increased to 3.3 months in October from 3.1 months in September.

This was slightly above the consensus forecast. I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2022 08:45:00 AM

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 2.2% in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September.   Outbound traffic decreased 0.4% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.

Imports were down 26% YoY in October, and exports were down 5% YoY.  

It is possible that exports have bottomed after declining for several years (even prior to the pandemic).

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 08:35:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.39 million SAAR, down from 4.71 million in September.

• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2022

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2022 02:10:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 12, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

• Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 45% above one year ago. Inventory accelerated again, notching a fifth straight week of gains roughly at or above 2% after a fair amount of stability between July and September. Fewer newly listed homes would normally cause a decline in inventory, but buyers have retreated from the housing market as higher and more uncertain costs make it difficult to ascertain purchasing power and set a budget.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 18% from one year ago. This marks the nineteenth week of year over year declines in homeowners listing their home for sale, a tangible reflection of the ongoing decline in seller confidence. Because potential sellers have pulled back so significantly, prices are decelerating in a more modest fashion than might otherwise be the case.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.

Then the Realtor.com data was stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row.  This was due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales had fallen sharply.

Now YoY inventory is increasing again with even higher mortgage rates, suggesting sales are off more than new listings.