by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2023 10:13:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 44, up from 42 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Higher in March but Future Outlook Uncertain

Although high construction costs and elevated interest rates continue to hamper housing affordability, builders expressed cautious optimism in March as a lack of existing inventory is shifting demand to the new home market.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in March rose two points to 44, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the third straight monthly increase in builder sentiment levels..
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions in March rose two points to 49 and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased three points to 31. This is the highest traffic reading since September of last year. The component charting sales expectations in the next six months fell one point to 47.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose five points to 42, the Midwest edged one-point higher to 34, the South increased five points to 45 and the West moved four points higher to 34.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast. 

The "traffic of prospective buyers" is still well below breakeven at 31 (below 50).

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2023 08:42:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.4% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.4 percent from February 2022.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.9 billion, down 0.4 percent from the previous month, but up 5.4 percent above February 2022. ... The December 2022 to January 2023 percent change was revised from up 3.0 percent to up 3.2 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.4% in February.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 6.1% on a YoY basis.

Sales in February were slightly below expectations, however, sales in December and January were revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2023 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 6.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 10, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 percent from the previous week and was 74 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week and was 38 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Treasury yields declined late last week, as market concerns over bank closures and the potential for broader ripple effects triggered a flight to safety in Treasury bonds. This decline pushed mortgage rates for all loan types lower, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.71 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Home-purchase applications increased for the second straight week but remained almost 40 percent below last year’s pace. While lower rates should buoy housing demand, the financial market volatility may cause buyers to pause their decisions.”

Added Kan, “Refinance activity remained more than 70 percent behind last year’s level, as rates are still more than two percentage points higher than a year ago. The dip in rates did bring some borrowers back as evidenced by the 5 percent increase in refinance applications last week.”
..
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.71 percent from 6.79 percent, with points decreasing to 0.79 from 0.80 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022.

Other than the lows recent in Q4 of 2022 and earlier this year, the refinance index was at the lowest level since the year 2000.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 38% year-over-year unadjusted.  

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2023 08:06:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.4% increase in core PPI.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of -7.7, down from -5.8.

• At 10:00 AM, The March NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 41, down from 42.  Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2023 04:47:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q4 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

A brief excerpt:

In 2021, I pointed out that with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, combined with the expiration of a large number of forbearance plans, we would see an increase in REOs in late 2022 and into 2023. However, this would NOT lead to a surge in foreclosures and significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) since lending has been solid and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes.

Last week, CoreLogic reported on homeowner equity: US Annual Home Equity Gains Cool Again in Q4 2022, CoreLogic Reports

The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) saw equity increase by 7.3% year over year, representing a collective gain of $1 trillion, for an average of $14,300 per borrower, since the fourth quarter of 2021.

With substantial equity, and low mortgage rates (mostly at a fixed rates), few homeowners will have financial difficulties.
...
Here is some data on REOs through Q4 2022 …
...
This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.

The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) increased from $818 million in Q3 2022 to $829 million in Q4 2022. This is increasing, but still very low.
...
The bottom line is there will be an increase in foreclosures in 2023 (from record low levels), but it will not be a huge wave of foreclosures as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2023 11:42:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in February

A brief excerpt:

This is the second look at local markets in February. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
...
In February, sales in these markets were down 23.1%. In January, these same markets were down 33.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a significantly smaller YoY decline NSA than in January for these early reporting markets.

The early data suggests NAR reported sales will rebound in February. This will still be a significant YoY decline, and the 18th consecutive month with a YoY decline.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2023 11:23:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in February. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.5% in February. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 7.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 6.5%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 5.5%. Core PCE is for January and increased 4.7% year-over-year.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. "Fuel oil and other fuels" decreased at a 55% annualized rate in February, and "Used Cars" decreased at a 29% annualized rate.

Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up 8.8% annualized (based on relative importance in the index). This data is lagged and asking rents have declined in recent months (due to the sharp slowdown in household formation). Ex-Shelter these indexes are decreasing sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2023 09:07:00 AM

Here a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell has been mentioning.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through February 2023.

Services were up 7.6% YoY as of February 2023, unchanged from 7.6% YoY in January.

Services less rent of shelter was up 6.9% YoY in February, down from 7.2% YoY in January.

Will services ex-shelter inflation be persistent, or will it follow a similar pattern as goods?   This is a topic I discussed yesterday in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -1.8% YoY as of February 2023, down from -1.3% YoY in January.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were up 1.0% YoY in February, down from 1.3% YoY in January.

Goods inflation was transitory.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through February) and housing from the PCE report (through January 2023)

Shelter was up 8.1% year-over-year in February, up from 7.9% in January. Housing (PCE) was up 8.0% YoY in January.

The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase [in CPI]".

by Calculated Risk on 3/14/2023 08:34:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase, with the indexes for food, recreation, and household furnishings and operations also contributing. The food index increased 0.4 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.3 percent. The energy index decreased 0.6 percent over the month as the natural gas and fuel oil indexes both declined.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.5 percent in February, after rising 0.4 percent in January. Categories which increased in February include shelter, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and airline fares. The index for used cars and trucks and the index for medical care were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index increased 6.0 percent for the 12 months ending February; this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending September 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 5.5 percent over the last 12 months, its smallest 12-month increase since December 2021. The energy index increased 5.2 percent for the 12 months ending February, and the food index increased 9.5 percent over the last year.

emphasis added

Both CPI and core CPI were close to expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2023 08:43:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Down Big, But Lagging Other Indicators

If you're just getting caught up or otherwise haven't heard, the biggest news in financial markets since last Friday has been the precipitous failure of Silicon Valley Bank. While not necessarily a household name, SVB was the 16th largest bank in terms of assets and the 2nd biggest bank failure in history behind Washington Mutual 15 years ago.

Combine that with the fact that the 3rd largest bank failure in history (Signature Bank) occurred 2 days later and it's no surprise that there's some panic in financial markets about systemic risk (aka, a domino effect resulting in additional turmoil).
...
If the market is calmer, then why are rates still so much lower? This has to do with the market shifting its expectations for Fed rate hikes in the rest of 2023. Specifically, the market now sees the Fed hitting a ceiling rate that's more than 1.5% lower than it was at the beginning of last week! [30 year fixed 6.57%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for February from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.4% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 6.0% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 5.5% YoY.