by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2023 08:30:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.2% week-over-week. Maybe inventory has finally bottomed seasonally.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of April 7th, inventory was at 411 thousand (7-day average), compared to 410 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is down 16.3%.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 59.1% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 62.2%), and down 50.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 50.8%). 

A key will be when inventory starts increasing in 2023 - maybe this is the beginning.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 4/09/2023 06:34:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of April 9, 2023

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 8 and DOW futures are up 50 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $81.02 per barrel and Brent at $85.45 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $98, and Brent was at $101 - so WTI oil prices are down about 17% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.57 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $4.09 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.52 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/09/2023 12:51:00 PM

From BofA:

On net, since the last weekly publication, our 1Q US GDP growth tracking estimate rose from 0.8% q/q saar to 1.6% q/q saar [Apr 7th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

[W]e lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.3% (qoq ar)). [Apr 5th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2023 is 1.5 percent on April 5, down from 1.7 percent on April 3. [Apr 5th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 4/09/2023 08:11:00 AM

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.

I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through March 2023, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.

Click on graph for larger image.

Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.

Currently inventory is still very low, and only up slightly from the record low set in February 2022. 

Prices are down 0.4% YoY, even with inventory at historically low levels.

It is possible the massive snow storms have limited listings in the Tahoe market this year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2023 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

• Update: Comparing the Current Housing Cycle to the 1980 Period

• Moody's: Multifamily Demand "Softened notably over the past few quarters"

• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Slightly in February; Prices Up 1.9% YoY

• Mortgage Rate Update

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Most content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2023 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are March CPI and retail sales.

For manufacturing, the March Industrial Production report will be released this week.

----- Monday, April 10th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, April 11th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March.

----- Wednesday, April 12th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI (up 5.2% YoY) and a 0.4% increase in core CPI (up 5.6% YoY).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 21-22

----- Thursday, April 13th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 233 thousand initial claims, up from 228 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.0% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

----- Friday, April 14th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in retail sales. 

This graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 6.1% on a YoY basis in February.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 79.0%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for April).

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 08:51:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths).  Data is now weekly.

After the first few weeks, the pandemic low for weekly deaths had been the week of July 7, 2021, at 1,690 deaths.  

Weekly deaths increased this week after setting a new pandemic low at 1,537 the previous week (see graph below).

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Week2	120,820	136,879	≤35,0001
Hospitalized2	13,324	15,136	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2	1,773	1,537	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

For cases, the low was 82,186.  

For COVID hospitalizations, the low was 9,821. 

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 03:25:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Rail volumes today are being negatively influenced by broader economic trends, including slowdowns in industrial output, high inventory levels at many retailers, lower port activity, and consumer spending that’s not as robust as it was during most of the last three years. Unfortunately, to date there are no clear indications that this uncertainty will dissipate in the near term.

Total U.S. freight carloads were down 1.2% in March 2023 from March 2022, their fourth year-over-year decline in the past five months. In 2023’s first quarter, total carloads were down 0.3% from last year. ... Meanwhile, U.S. intermodal volume fell 13.3% in March 2023, its 13th straight year-over-year decline and 19th in the past 20 months. In the first quarter, volume was 3.024 million containers and trailers, down 10.3% from last year and the lowest first-quarter total for intermodal since 2012.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022:

U.S. freight railroads originated 1.164 million total carloads in March 2023, down 1.2%, or 13,794 carloads, from the same period in 2022.

For the first quarter of 2023, total carloads were down 0.3%, or 9,068 carloads, from last year.

The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

U.S. railroads also had 1.160 million intermodal originations in March 2023, down 13.3% from March 2022. ... March 2023 was only the second month since March 2017 (January 2023 was the other) in which originated carloads exceeded originated intermodal units.
...
Reasons for intermodal’s decline this year include consumer spending that is less robust than it has been; reduced port activity; too-high inventory levels at many retailers; and lower truck rates that make all-truck movements more price competitive.

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 11:56:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

A brief excerpt:

This is the first look at local markets in March. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were over 6% for all of January and February - compared to 4% range the previous year - closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in March. However, the impact was probably not as severe as for closed sales in December and January (rates were the highest in October and November 2022 when contracts were signed for closing in December and January).
...
Median sales prices for single family homes were down 7.6% year-over year (YoY) in Las Vegas, down 7.5% in the Northwest, and down 6.3% YoY in Denver.
...
In March, sales in these markets were down 26.5%. In February, these same markets were down 24.3% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a slightly larger YoY decline NSA than in February for these early reporting markets. The March existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, and the 19th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

This was a just a few early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2023 11:09:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Modest Increase in March

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) increased 1.5% in March from February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 238.1, down 2.4% from a year ago. March’s increase was moderated by the seasonal adjustment. The non-adjusted price change in March increased by 3.5% compared to February, moving the unadjusted average price down 2.9% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in March (seasonally adjusted) and were down 2.4% year-over-year (YoY).