by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2023 09:46:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: American Homes 4 Rent Net Seller of Single-Family Homes Last Quarter

Brief excerpt:

Housing economist Tom Lawler brings us some interesting data from American Homes 4 Rent. Last week, Lawler discussed Invitation Homes Net Seller of Single-Family Properties for Second Straight Quarter and also provided statistics from eight public builders):

American Homes 4 Rent Net Seller of Single-Family Homes Last Quarter; Rent Growth Slowed but Remained Elevated

American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), a publicly-traded company in the single-family rental business with over 58,000 SF rental properties, reported that it disposed of 354 more SF properties than it acquired last quarter, and excluding deliveries of build-to-rent homes from its own AMH Development Program its net sales of SF properties totaled 653 properties.  Below is a table showing AMH’s acquisitions, dispositions, and total wholly-owned SF properties.

There is much more in the post.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/.

by Calculated Risk on 5/08/2023 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of May 5th, inventory was at 420 thousand (7-day average), compared to 422 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is down 14.5%.  And inventory is up 3.5% from the bottom three weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 39.7% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 46.7%), and down 52.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 52.3%). 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 5/07/2023 11:53:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of May 7, 2023

Monday:
• At 2:00 PM ET Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $71.34 per barrel and Brent at $75.30 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $110, and Brent was at $114 - so WTI oil prices are down about 35% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.50 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $4.28 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.78 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/07/2023 09:32:00 AM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from chief economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Apr 29, 2023

• Active inventory was up at a slower pace, with for-sale homes up just 35% above one year ago. The number of homes for sale continues to grow, but compared to one year ago, the pace is slowing.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 22% from one year ago. The number of newly listed homes has been lower than the same time the previous year for the past 43 weeks.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory is still up year-over-year - from record lows - however, the YoY increase has slowed sharply recently.  

This was the smallest YoY increase since October.

The recent trend suggests active inventory could be down YoY in Q3!

by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2023 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Year-over-year Rent Growth Continues to Decelerate

• Lawler: Invitation Homes Net Seller of Single-Family Properties for Second Straight Quarter

• A Policy Proposal to Increase the Utilization of the Current Housing Stock

• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased in March; Prices Up 1.0% YoY

• Early Look at Local Housing Markets in April

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

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by Calculated Risk on 5/06/2023 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is April CPI.

Note: The Fed will release the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) on Monday. This will provide some information on recent credit tightening.

----- Monday, May 8th -----
2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for April.

----- Tuesday, May 9th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.

----- Wednesday, May 10th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in CPI (up 5.0% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 5.5% YoY).

----- Thursday, May 11th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 250 thousand initial claims, up from 242 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

----- Friday, May 12th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for May).

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2023 09:04:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths).  Data is now weekly.

After the first few weeks, the pandemic low for weekly deaths had been the week of July 7, 2021, at 1,690 deaths (until recently).  

For cases, the low was 82,186 (getting close).

For COVID hospitalizations, the low was 9,821 (until this week).

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Week2	77,924	90,318	≤35,0001
Hospitalized2	8,861	10,214	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2🚩	1,109	1,049	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Weekly deaths increased slightly this week, just up from the pandemic low of 1,049 deaths the previous week.

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2023 03:01:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Rail intermodal continues to struggle. U.S. intermodal volume was 12.7% lower in April 2023 than in April 2022. April’s decline was the 14th straight and 20th in the past 21 months. In 2023 through April, volume was 3.97 million containers and trailers, down 10.9% (484,228) from last year and the fewest for January to April since 2012. Year-to-date container volume was down 9.5%; trailer volume was down 28.3%. Trailers accounted for 5.8% of intermodal units In the first four months of 2023, a record low.

Meanwhile, carloads were better: total originated carloads on U.S. railroads in April were up 1.8% over April 2022 and averaged 234,159 per week — the most in six months. Year-to-date total carloads were 3.93 million, up 0.6% over the first four months of 2022 and the most for January to April since 2019.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022:

Originated carloads on U.S. railroads in April 2023 totaled 936,637, up 1.8% over April 2022. Total carloads averaged 234,159 per week in April 2023, the most in six months.

For the first four months of 2023, total carloads were 3.93 million, up 0.6% (23,161 carloads) over the first four months of 2022 and the most for January to April since 2019.

The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2021, 2022 and 2023: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

U.S. railroads originated 945,313 intermodal containers and trailers in April 2023, down 12.7% (137,879 units) from April 2022. April’s decline was the 14th straight for intermodal. Originations averaged 236,328 units per week in April 2023, the most in five months.

In 2023 through April, intermodal volume was 3.97 million units, down 10.9% (484,228) from last year and the fewest for January to April since 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2023 01:46:00 PM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Sizable Decline in April

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 3.0% in April from March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 230.8, down 4.4% from a year ago.

“While values increased 8.6% through the first quarter from December, the market has reversed course in April, with our monthly figures showing a month-over-month decline for the first time in 2023,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. “Values in April also continue to be lower year over year. We’ve experienced eight straight months of year-over-year declines, averaging 8.3%, and it’s likely not over yet. During the financial crisis, we had 16 months of annualized declines, averaging 5.8%. Though I’m not predicting doom, we’ve surely started a second, and more rapid, decent off the pandemic peak of January 2022.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in April (seasonally adjusted) and were down 4.4% year-over-year (YoY).

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2023 10:36:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Early Look at Local Housing Markets in April

A brief excerpt:

This is a look at a few early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in April were mostly for contracts signed in February and March. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were over 6% for all of February and March - compared to the 4% range the previous year - closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in April.

It is likely sales were down more year-over-year in April than in March, however, the impact was probably not as severe as for closed sales in December and January (rates were the highest in October and November 2022 when contracts were signed for closing in December and January).
...
In April, sales in these markets were down 34.5%. In March, these same markets were down 26.5% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This is a larger YoY decline NSA than in March for these early reporting markets, however there was one less selling day in April this year. This early data suggests the April existing home sales report will show another significant YoY decline, and the 20th consecutive month with a YoY decline in sales.

This was a just a few early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/