by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2023 08:30:00 AM

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $65.5 billion in June, down $2.8 billion from $68.3 billion in May, revised.

June exports were $247.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than May exports. June imports were $313.0 billion, $3.1 billion less than May imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports and imports decreased in June.

Exports are down 4% year-over-year; imports are down 8% year-over-year.

Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - and both have been decreasing recently.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have picked up.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $24.1 billion from $37.0 billion a year ago.

The trade deficit was slightly less than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2023 07:56:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Over The Weekend

Mortgage rates are starting out the new week at modestly higher levels compared to last Friday afternoon. The average change is very small. Many borrowers would see no difference in today's rate quotes. A few lenders are marginally improved from Friday, but they generally hadn't improved as much as other lenders on Friday itself.

Top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios are still over 7% either way. ... Thursday's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is this week's highest risk/reward event. [30 year fixed 7.06%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $65.7 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $69.0 Billion the previous month.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2023 01:49:00 PM

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.

I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through July 2023, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

Note: The median price is a 12-month average, and is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.

Click on graph for larger image.

Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.

Currently active inventory is still very low and is down 28% year-over-year.   

Prices are down 6.3% YoY, even with inventory at historically low levels.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2023 10:23:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Increased Month-to-month to New Record High in June

A brief excerpt:

Note: Although not in Mortgage Monitor, Black Knight told me: “We haven’t yet calculated payment-to-income ratios given yesterday’s news of rates north of 7%, but it’s a pretty safe bet it’s pushed us past last October/November’s “worst affordable market” marker"
...
Note: The Black Knight House Price Index (HPI) is a repeat sales index. Black Knight reports the median price change of the repeat sales. Here is a graph of the Black Knight HPI. The index is up 0.8% year-over-year.

• Home prices grew by a seasonally adjusted +0.67% in the month, slightly cooler than the +0.8% seen in May, but on par with the +0.7 and +0.69% seasonally adjusted growth in March and April

• Recent monthly gains suggest that further acceleration of annual home price growth rates are likely on the horizonbr />
• A continuation of gains seen over the past six months (+0.6% month over month, seasonally adjusted, on average) would result in the annual home price growth rate accelerating to 2% or higher in July with further acceleration in subsequent monthsbr />
• A later-than-normal peak in inventory levels, as noted on the previous page, could ease price pressures later this year, although if interest rates begin to ease, prices could heat up on what would still be chronically low inventory
emphasis added

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2023 10:07:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Large Decline in June

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 1.6% in July from June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 211.7, down 11.6% from a year ago.

“The July drop of 1.6% is an indicator of slowing wholesale price declines, at least when compared to the month-over-month losses we’ve seen since April,” said Chris Frey, senior manager of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. “While the year-over-year price drop was again double-digit, let’s put some perspective on that. From July 2020, there were 22 straight monthly double-digit increases through April 2022; we’ve had just six double-digit declines since October last year, with only four of them consecutive. Keeping to the April theme, we’re now back to the same index value last seen in April 2021: 211.7. Used retail inventory continues to rebuild; but with used retail sales also showing some summer strength, we do not foresee wholesale price declines of serious import through December.”

July’s decrease was softened by the seasonal adjustment. The non-adjusted price change in July decreased by 3.8% compared to June, moving the unadjusted average price down 10.7% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in June (seasonally adjusted) and were down 11.6% year-over-year (YoY).

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2023 08:21:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.7% week-over-week.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of August 4th, inventory was at 488 thousand (7-day average), compared to 485 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is down 0.6%.  And inventory is up 20.3% from the seasonal bottom 16 weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.

Inventory was down 10.3% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 10.1%), and down 49.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 49.5%). 

It appears same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year. It is possible that inventory will fall below the record lows in 2021 and early 2022 later this year or in early 2024, but currently that seems unlikely.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2023 06:15:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 6, 2023

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are up 7 and DOW futures are up 45 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $82.82 per barrel and Brent at $86.24 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $92, and Brent was at $100 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.81 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $4.05 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.24 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/06/2023 09:07:00 AM

Here is a look at the percentage of teens employed over time.

The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (16 to 19 years old) since 1948.

The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer.

A few observations:
1) Although teen employment has recovered some since the great recession, overall teen employment had been trending down. This is probably because more people are staying in school (a long term positive for the economy).

2) Teen employment was significantly impacted in 2020 by the pandemic.

Click on graph for larger image.

3) A smaller percentage of teenagers are obtaining summer employment. The seasonal spikes are smaller than in previous decades. 

The teen employment-population ratio was 38.0% in July 2023, down from 38.4% in July 2022. 

The teen participation rate was 43.1% in July 2023, down from 43.6% the previous July. 

In general, a smaller percentage of teenagers are joining the labor force during the summer as compared to previous years. This could be because of fewer employment opportunities, or because teenagers are pursuing other activities during the summer.

4) The decline in teenager participation is one of the reasons the overall participation rate has declined (of course, the retiring baby boomers is the main reason the overall participation rate has declined over the last 20+ years).

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2023 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Asking Rents Negative Year-over-year

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in June to New High; Up 1.7% Year-over-year

• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2024?

• The impact of 7% Mortgage Rates

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Most content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!

by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2023 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are July CPI and the June Trade Deficit.

----- Monday, August 7th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, August 8th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $65.7 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $69.0 Billion the previous month.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Wednesday, August 9th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, August 10th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 236 thousand initial claims, up from 227 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.2% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 4.8% YoY.

12:00 PM: (expected) MBA Q2 National Delinquency Survey

----- Friday, August 11th -----
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for August)