by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2023 10:19:00 AM
Monday, October 02, 2023
Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in August
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:
Construction spending during August 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,983.5 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,973.7 billion. The August figure is 7.4 percent above the August 2022 estimate of $1,847.3 billion.Both private and public spending increased:
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Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,551.8 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,544.6 billion. ...Click on graph for larger image.
In August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $431.6 billion, 0.6 percent above the revised July estimate of $429.1 billion.
This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.
Residential (red) spending is 9.3% below the recent peak.
Non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak.
Public construction spending is also at a new peak.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.
On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 3.1%. Non-residential spending is up 19.7% year-over-year. Public spending is up 14.1% year-over-year.
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 49.0% in September
by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2023 10:00:00 AM
(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.0% in September, up from 47.6% in August. The employment index was at 51.2%, up from 48.5% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.2%, up from 46.8%.
From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49%
September 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®
conomic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the 11th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.This suggests manufacturing contracted in September. This was above the consensus forecast. Note that the price index was at 43.8% (falling prices).
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in September, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6 percent recorded in August. The overall economy expanded weakly after nine months of contraction following a 30-month period of expansion. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August. The Production Index reading of 52.5 percent is a 2.5-percentage point increase compared to August’s figure of 50 percent. The Prices Index registered 43.8 percent, down 4.6 percentage points compared to the reading of 48.4 percent in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.4 percent, 1.7 percentage points lower than the August reading of 44.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 51.2 percent, up 2.7 percentage points from the 48.5 percent reported in August.
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Housing October 2nd Weekly Update: Inventory increased 1.3% Week-over-week; Down 4.7% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2023 08:12:00 AM
Click on graph for larger image.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
Sunday, October 01, 2023
Monday: ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2023 07:06:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 1, 2023
Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 47.8, up from 47.6 in August.
• Also at 10:00 AM Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are up 16 and DOW futures are up 110 (fair value).
Oil prices were mixed over the last week with WTI futures at $90.79 per barrel and Brent at $92.20 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $80, and Brent was at $89 - so WTI oil prices are up about 14% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.79 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.77 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.02 year-over-year.
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August to New High; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2023 10:11:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in August to New High; Up 4.0% Year-over-year
A brief excerpt:
On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in August, from up 3.0% YoY in July. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% in May 2023. ...There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/
In August, 11 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Utah (-3.8%), Arizona (-3.4%), Hawaii (-3.4%), Idaho (-3.2%), and Nevada (-2.8%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.
...
I’ll have an update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability soon.
Saturday, September 30, 2023
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: House Price Index Up 1.0% year-over-year in July; New all-time High
by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2023 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
• New Home Sales decrease to 675,000 Annual Rate in August
• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.0% year-over-year in July; New all-time High
• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.4% Below Peak
• Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year
• Fannie and Freddie: Single-Family Mortgage Delinquency Rate Declined, Multi-Family Increased in August
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/
Schedule for Week of October 1, 2023
by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2023 08:11:00 AM
The key report scheduled for this week is the September employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the September ISM Manufacturing and Services indices, September auto sales and the August trade deficit.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 47.8, up from 47.6 in August.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase.
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for August.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.
This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Jobs openings decreased in July to 8.83 million from 9.17 million in June.
The number of job openings (yellow) were down 22% year-over-year. Quits were down 12% year-over-year.
All day: Light vehicle sales for September.
The consensus is for sales of 15.4 million SAAR, up from 15.0 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 jobs added, down from 177,000 in August.
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for September.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 208 thousand initial claims, up from 204 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the deficit to be $65.1 billion in August, from $65.0 billion in July.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 150,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 3.7%.
There were 187,000 jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 3.8%.
This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.
Friday, September 29, 2023
Sept 29th COVID Update: Deaths and Hospitalizations Increased
by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2023 07:20:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
COVID Metrics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
Hospitalized2🚩 | 16,196 | 16,139 | ≤3,0001 | |
Deaths per Week2🚩 | 1,132 | 1,088 | ≤3501 | |
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths ✅ Goal met. |
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.
Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3%
by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2023 03:44:00 PM
From BofA:
Overall, the data flow since our last weekly lowered our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate by a tenth to 2.8%. [Sept 29th estimate]From Goldman:
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The foreign trade details of this morning’s report were stronger than our previous assumptions, and we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +3.5% (qoq ar). We left our domestic final sales growth forecast unchanged on a rounded basis at +2.6%. [Sept 29th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percent on September 29, unchanged from September 27 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Census Bureau, increases in the model’s nowcasts of the contributions of personal consumption expenditures and net exports to GDP growth were offset by a downward revision in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth. [Sept 29th estimate]
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.6% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2023 02:52:00 PM
U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 September.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
17-23 September 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):
• Occupancy: 68.5% (-1.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$164.97 (+2.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$112.96 (+1.2%)
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The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.