by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2023 08:19:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 89,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 5.9%

Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).
...
“We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist ADP. “Additionally, we are seeing a steady decline in wages in the past 12 months.”
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast of 150,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 150 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2023 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 29, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week as markets digested the recent upswing in Treasury yields. Rates for all mortgage products increased, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing for the fourth consecutive week to 7.53 percent – the highest rate since 2000,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result, mortgage applications ground to a halt, dropping to the lowest level since 1996. The purchase market slowed to the lowest level of activity since 1995, as the rapid rise in rates pushed an increasing number of potential homebuyers out of the market. ARM loan applications picked up over the week and the ARM share increased to 8 percent, as some borrowers searched for ways to lower their payments.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 7.53 percent from 7.41 percent, with points increasing to 0.80 from 0.71 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 22% year-over-year unadjusted.  

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 - and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then.

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2023 09:08:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 150,000 jobs added, down from 177,000 in August.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2023 06:33:00 PM

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for September: September U.S. Light-Vehicles Sales Bounce Back Despite Gloomy Conditions (pay site).

Hard to say exactly how much but sales could have been slightly stronger in September if not for some lost inventory caused by production cuts related to plant shutdowns from UAW strikes at Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Sales losses will be more strongly felt in October as production cuts mount.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for September (red).

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month.  After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).  However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues.  The "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing.  This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and have picked up recently.

Sales in September were above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2023 02:42:00 PM

Here is another monthly update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16th. I've now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. 

Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through last August (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

LBR is currently at $491.50 per 1000 board feet, down 11% from $550.00 a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May.

We didn't see a significant runup in prices this Spring due to the housing slowdown.

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2023 12:04:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

A brief excerpt:

Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q2 2023 (released last Friday).
...
This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.3%, and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6%. These low existing mortgage rates makes it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply. This is a key reason existing home inventory levels are so low.

The percent of loans over 6% bottomed in Q2 2022 at 7.1% and has increased to 10.5% in Q2 2023.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2023 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for August; the employment report this Friday will be for September.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in August to 9.61 million from 8.92 million in July.

The number of job openings (black) were down 6% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 14% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2023 08:30:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for August. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for July. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Picks Up Pace in August, CoreLogic Reports

• U.S. home prices increased year over year for the 139th consecutive month in August.

• Home prices are 42% higher compared with March 2020, when the pandemic began.

• August’s annual 3.7% home price gain was the highest since February 2023.

• CoreLogic projects that year-over-year home price appreciation will relax slightly by August 2024 to 3.4%.

• Eight states, mostly in the West, saw year-over-year home price declines, the fewest since February 2023.

• Of large metro areas, Miami continued to lead the country for annual home price growth, with an 8.3% gain.

• The median sales price for a U.S. single-family home remained at $375,000 in August, with California ($705,000), the District of Columbia ($630,000) and Massachusetts ($585,000) again leading the nation.
...
CoreLogic’s Home Price Index dropped to an 11-year low in the spring of 2023 but is starting to regain momentum. While some states in the West still posted annual home price losses in August, that number has been decreasing since the spring of this year. Meanwhile, housing markets in New England are starting to heat up, with New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont and Rhode Island seeing the largest year-over-year price gains in August.

“While continued mortgage rate increases challenge affordability across U.S. housing markets, home price growth is in line with typical seasonal averages, reflecting strong demand bolstered by a healthy labor market, strong wage growth and supporting demographic trends,“ said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Still, with a slower buying season ahead and the surging cost of homeownership, additional monthly price gains may taper off.”
emphasis added

This index was up 2.5% YoY in July.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2023 07:19:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs

The average didn't quite make it back to the multidecade highs seen last week, but the average borrower would see little--if any--difference in today's rate quotes. This represents a fairly big jump up from Friday (which saw a nice correction down from Thursday's highs).

There are a few culprits--some specific, some general. One specific culprit was the market's reaction to the stop-gap bill that averted the government shutdown. Another specific and more obvious culprit was the stronger-than-expected outcome in today's important manufacturing data. [30 year fixed 7.61%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:00 AM ET, Corelogic House Price index for August.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for September. The consensus is for sales of 15.4 million SAAR, up from 15.0 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2023 05:32:00 PM

During the early stages of the pandemic, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE hit an all-time low of 3.3% of PCE. Then energy expenditures increased to 2018 levels by the end of 2021.

With the invasion of Ukraine, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE increased further in 2022.

Here is an update through the August 2023 PCE report.

This graph shows expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures.  This is one of the measures that Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser looks at to evaluate any drag on GDP from energy prices.

Click on graph for larger image.

Data source: BEA.

In general, energy expenditures as a percent of PCE has been trending down for decades. The huge spikes in energy prices during the oil crisis of 1973 and 1979 are obvious. As is the increase in energy prices during the 2001 through 2008 period.

In August 2023, energy expenditures as a percentage of PCE were at 4.3% of PCE, up from 4.1% in July, and down from the recent peak of 5.2% in June 2022. 

This is still above the pre-pandemic level of around 3.8% of PCE.