by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2023 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are September Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, October 16th -----
8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of -1.5, down from 1.9.

----- Tuesday, October 17th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 79.6%.

10:00 AM: The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 44, down from 45 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Wednesday, October 18th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.405 million SAAR, up from 1.283 million SAAR.

During the day: The AIA/Deltek's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, October 19th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, up from 209 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of -6.8, up from -13.5.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.94 million SAAR, down from 4.04 million in August.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

12:00 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At the Economic Club of New York (ECNY) Luncheon, New York, New York

----- Friday, October 20th -----
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for September 2023

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2023 07:16:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.

For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly.

Recently hospitalizations have almost tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023.  Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Hospitalized2	14,509	15,697	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2	1,217	1,274	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Weekly deaths have more than doubled from a low of 469 in early July.  Weekly deaths are far below the weekly peak of 26,000 in January 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2023 02:10:00 PM

From BofA:

Overall, the data flow since our last weekly pushed up our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate from 3.7% to 3.8% q/q saar. [Oct 13th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.7% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales growth forecast also unchanged at +2.4%. [Oct 10th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.1 percent on October 10, up from 4.9 percent on October 5. [Oct 10th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2023 01:43:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release September existing home sales next week on Thursday, October 19th, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 3.94 million SAAR, down from 4.04 million in August. This would be a new cycle low, below the 4.00 million SAAR in January 2023.

This is the third look at local markets in September. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
...
Here is a summary of active listings for these early reporting housing markets in September.

Inventory for these markets were down 4.7% YoY in August and are now down 2.2% YoY. It is likely inventory will be up YoY in a few months, but still at a historically low level (compared to pre-pandemic levels of inventory).
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2023 09:49:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 7 October

U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, and year-over-year comparisons were mostly positive, according to CoStar’s latest data through 7 October. ...

1-7 October 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):

• Occupancy: 67.8% (-0.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.19 (+5.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$110.68 (+5.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and just above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate might pick up a little more during the Fall business travel season before declining in the Winter months.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2023 08:11:00 AM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Sabrina Speianu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 7, 2023

• Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 2.4%.

During the past week, we observed the 16th successive drop in the number of homes available for sale when compared to the previous year. This decline showed a slight improvement compared to the previous week’s -2.6% figure and inventory has been growing week-to-week over September and into October. However, despite this marginal improvement, inventory remained tight and came in 45.1% below typical pre-pandemic levels in September.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were down again this week, by 3.2% from one year ago. .

For more than a year we have seen a consistent decline in the number of newly listed homes compared to the same period in the previous year. This past week, the gap compared to last year remains low as new listings were only 3.2% lower. However, last year’s pace of new listings was already historically low due to a steady rise in mortgage rates at that time. While this autumn’s listing pace is expected to catch up to last year, it is still notably much lower than pre-pandemic levels as we expect homeowners to continue to feel “locked-in” by mortgage rates ...

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was down 3.2% year-over-year - this was the sixteenth consecutive week with a YoY decrease following 58 consecutive weeks with a YoY increase in inventory.  

The YoY decline in inventory has been getting smaller recently but will likely stay down YoY for the remainder of 2023 since inventory was increasing late into the year last year.

New listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison for new listings is easier now - and new listings are still historically very low.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2023 02:50:00 PM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned earlier when services less rent of shelter was up 7.6% year-over-year.  This has fallen sharply and is now up 2.8% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2023.

Services were up 5.2% YoY as of September 2023, down from 5.4% YoY in August.

Services less rent of shelter was up 2.8% YoY in August, down from 3.1% YoY in August.

Earlier this year, a key question was: Would services ex-shelter inflation be persistent, or would it follow a similar pattern as goods?   This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -2.2% YoY as of September 2023, down from -2.0% YoY in August.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were unchanged YoY in September, down from 0.4% YoY in August.

Goods inflation was transitory.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through August) and housing from the PCE report (through July 2023)

Shelter was up 7.1% year-over-year in September, down from 7.2% in August. Housing (PCE) was up 7.4% YoY in August, down from 7.7% in July.

The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase."

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% YoY in September, down from 2.3% in August.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2023 11:22:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in September. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 5.5% (down from 5.7% in August), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 4.3% (down from 4.5%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 4.1% (down from 4.3%). 

Core PCE is for August was up 3.9% YoY, down from 4.2% in July.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. "Fuel oil and other fuels" increased at a 76% annualized rate in September, and "Lodging away from home" increased at a 54% annualized rate.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2023 08:59:00 AM

With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2024.

From Social Security: Social Security Announces 3.2 Percent Benefit Increase for 2024

Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits for more than 71 million Americans will increase 3.2 percent in 2024, the Social Security Administration announced today. On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by more than $50 per month starting in January.
...
Some other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) will increase to $168,600 from $160,200.

Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (3.2% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments.

The contribution and benefit base will be $168,600 in 2024.

The National Average Wage Index increased to $63,795.13 in 2022, up 5.3% from $60,575.07 in 2021 (used to calculate contribution base). 

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2023 08:31:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. An increase in the gasoline index was also a major contributor to the all items monthly rise. While the major energy component indexes were mixed in September, the energy index rose 1.5 percent over the month. The food index increased 0.2 percent in September, as it did in the previous two months. The index for food at home increased 0.1 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, the same increase as in August. Indexes which increased in September include rent, owners' equivalent rent, lodging away from home, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, personal care, and new vehicles. The indexes for used cars and trucks and for apparel were among those that decreased over the month.

The all items index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, the same increase as the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 0.5 percent for the 12 months ending September, and the food index increased 3.7 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

CPI was slightly above expectations and core CPI was at expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.