by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2023 08:21:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.5% week-over-week and is now up slightly year-over-year.  This is the latest in the year that inventory was still increasing in this series!  Inventory will start decreasing seasonally soon (for Thanksgiving and Christmas).

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of November 17th, inventory was at 570 thousand (7-day average), compared to 567 thousand the prior week.   

Year-to-date, inventory is up 16.1%.  And inventory is up 40.3% from the seasonal bottom 31 weeks ago.

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2023.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 0.1% compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was down 0.9%), and down 35.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 36.5%). 

In 2022, inventory peaked at the end of October (the latest in the year inventory had peaked in this series until this year).  

Inventory is now solidly above the same week in 2020 levels (dark blue line).

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2023 06:51:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 19, 2023

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 5 and DOW futures are down 11 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $75.89 per barrel and Brent at $80.61 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $80, and Brent was at $89 - so WTI oil prices were down 5% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.25 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.65 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.40 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2023 08:31:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 11 November

U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week and showed positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 11 November.

5-11 November 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):

• Occupancy: 64.8% (+0.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.01 (+4.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$101.13 (+4.9%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will decline seasonally for the next couple of months. 

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2023 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

• October Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

• Lawler: New Census Long-Term Population Projections Are MASSIVELY Lower Than Previous Projections

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2023 08:11:00 AM

The key economic report this week is Existing Home sales.

----- Monday, November 20th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, November 21st -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.93 million SAAR, down from 3.96 million in September.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of October 31-November 1

----- Wednesday, November 22nd -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 229 thousand initial claims, down from 231 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.0% decrease in durable goods orders.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for November).

----- Thursday, November 23rd -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 24th -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2023 07:23:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.

For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly.

Hospitalizations have more than doubled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023.

Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Hospitalized2🚩	12,974	12,647	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2	1,130	1,265	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Weekly deaths have more than doubled from a low of 485 in early July but have declined recently.  Weekly deaths are far below the weekly peak of 26,000 in January 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2023 04:22:00 PM

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.9% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales estimate by 0.1pp to 2.0%. [Nov 17th estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.0 percent on November 17, down from 2.2 percent on November 15. [Nov 17th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2023 01:16:00 PM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

Excerpt:

Chart of the Week:  Mortgage Rates Follow MBS Yields, Not 10-Year Treasury Yields

For an explanation of “why”, see Lawler: Update on Mortgage/Treasury Spreads

From Tom Lawler:

30 Year FRM: Optimal Blue Conventional Conforming 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage where LTV<=80% and FICO>740.

CC MBS Yield: Yield on notional par agency 30-year MBS

Note: there is some “spurious” volatility in the mortgage spreads because Optimal Blue measures rate lock activity throughout the day while the MBS and Treasury yields reflect late afternoon yields.

There is much more in the post.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2023 09:19:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: October Housing Starts: Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction

Excerpt:

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2022 (blue) and 2023 (red).

Total starts were down 4.2% in October compared to October 2022.  And starts year-to-date are down 11.3% compared to last year.

Starts have been down year-over-year for 16 of the last 18 months (May and July 2023 were the exceptions), and total starts will be down this year - although the year-over-year comparisons are somewhat easier in Q4.

There is much more in the post.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2023 08:30:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,372,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,346,000, but is 4.2 percent below the October 2022 rate of 1,432,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 970,000; this is 0.2 percent above the revised September figure of 968,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 382,000.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,487,000. This is 1.1 percent above the revised September rate of 1,471,000, but is 4.4 percent below the October 2022 rate of 1,555,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 968,000; this is 0.5 percent above the revised September figure of 963,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 469,000 in October.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in October compared to September.   Multi-family starts were down 30.0% year-over-year in October.

Single-family starts (red) increased in October and were up 13.1% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in October were above expectations and starts in August and September were revised up, combined.

I'll have more later …