by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2023 07:33:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.

For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly.

Hospitalizations have quadrupled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023.

Hospitalizations are far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Hospitalized2🚩	21,597	20,050	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2	1,464	1,545	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Weekly deaths have tripled from a low of 485 in early July.  Still weekly deaths are far below the weekly peak of 26,000 in January 2021.

And here is a new graph I'm following on COVID in wastewater as of Dec 28th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is at the highest level since January 2022 (about half that peak), and that suggests deaths will likely increase significantly over the next several weeks.

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2023 02:24:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2023. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 25 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained stable in four, for a three-month diffusion index of 8. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 18 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained stable in 11, for a one-month diffusion index of -6. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.7 percent over the past three months and 0.3 percent in November.
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is split between positive and negative on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. 

This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In November, 20 states had increasing activity on a single month basis, including minor increases.

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2023 11:11:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 6.3% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 6.3% in November, from up 5.6% YoY in October.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...

As of November, 9 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Idaho (-4.2%), Utah (-2.0%), Louisiana (-1.7%), and Colorado (-1.4%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.
...
I’ll have an update on the House Price Battle Royale: Low Inventory vs Affordability soon.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2023 08:35:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?

Brief excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

10) Housing Inventory: Housing inventory decreased sharply during the pandemic to record lows in early 2022. Since then, inventory has increased, but is still well below pre-pandemic levels. Will inventory increase further in 2024?
...
First, a brief history. Here are a few times when watching existing home inventory helped my analysis.

Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing, but I wasn’t sure when the market would turn. Speculative bubbles can go on and on. However, the increase in inventory in late 2005 (see red arrow on graph) helped me call the top for house prices in 2006.Several years later, in early 2012, when many people were still bearish on housing, the plunge in inventory in 2011 (blue arrow on graph below) helped me call the bottom for house prices in early 2012 (see The Housing Bottom is Here).
...
Somewhat lower mortgage rates - and time - will likely lead to more new listings in 2024. Still, mortgage rates will remain well above the pandemic lows, and therefore new listings will be depressed again in 2024.

The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2024.   However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels.   Inventory is always something to watch!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2023 08:22:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2023 03:11:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 23 December

As anticipated ahead of the holidays, U.S. hotel performance fell from the previous week, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 December. ...

17-23 December 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2022):

• Occupancy: 43.9% (+0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$131.97 (-0.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$57.90 (-0.4%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking close to last year, and above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2022 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will start increasing seasonally in the new year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2023 01:54:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2023 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With highlights including the SEMA tradeshow in the first week of the month and of course, the inaugural Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov 16‐18, Las Vegas tourism metrics exceeded last November across several categories, most notably with record ADR and RevPAR.

Visitor volume exceeded 3.29M, ahead of last November by +0.8%, and convention attendance approached 600k, +2.7% YoY.

Overall hotel occupancy was 81.9%, +0.7 pts YoY, as Weekend occupancy reached 88.7% (‐0.9 pts YoY) while Midweek occupancy exceeded last November by 1.4 pts to reach 78.9% for the month. Driven by strong rates during the dates of the F1 race, monthly ADR reached a record $249, +33.7% YoY and RevPAR exceeded $204, +34.8% YoY

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (purple), 2022 (orange), and 2023 (red).

Visitor traffic was up 0.8% compared to last November.

Visitor traffic was down 6.2% compared to the same month in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was up 2.7% compared to November 2022, and down 0.8% compared to November 2019.

Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2023 01:42:00 PM

Update on FirstAm cyber attack (started on Dec 20th). This will impact December house closings. From FirstAm:

"FirstAm.com has been restored (with some limits to functionality). We will continue to post updates on this page as we return to normal business operations."

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2023 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Recorded No Change in November

Pending home sales in November were identical to those in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the South recorded a loss. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year declines in transactions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – stayed at 71.6 in November. Year over year, pending transactions were down 5.2%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
...
The Northeast PHSI rose 0.8% from last month to 64.4, a drop of 6.4% from November 2022. The Midwest index increased 0.5% to 76.2 in November, down 2.2% from one year ago.

The South PHSI declined 2.3% to 83.2 in November, decreasing 6.5% from the prior year. The West index climbed 4.2% in November to 54.0, falling 4.9% from November 2022.
emphasis added

This was below expectations. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2023 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 212,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.