by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2024 01:20:00 PM

The BLS reported 353 thousand non-farm jobs were added in January.   During the Winter months, I like to look at the weather impact on the report.

The BLS reported 553 thousand people were employed in non-agriculture industries, with a job, but not at work due to bad weather. The average for January over the previous 10 years was 257 thousand (median 248 thousand), so more people than normal were impacted by bad weather.

The BLS also reported 1.794 million people that are usually full-time employees were working part time in January due to bad weather.  The average for January over the previous 10 years was 835 thousand (the median was 645 thousand).  This series suggests weather negatively impacted employment more than usual.

The San Francisco Fed estimates Weather-Adjusted Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (monthly change, seasonally adjusted). They use local area weather to estimate the impact on employment. For January, the San Francisco Fed estimated that weather reduced employment by 40 to 60 thousand jobs.

It appears weather adjusted job gains were around 400 thousand in January (seasonally adjusted)

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2024 11:30:00 AM

From BofA:

Next week, we will start 1Q GDP tracking with the January advance retail sales print. [Feb 9th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.9% (qoq ar) and we left our domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +3.2% (qoq ar). [Feb 7th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 3.4 percent on February 8, unchanged from February 7 after rounding. [Feb 8th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2024 08:30:00 AM

The BLS updated the seasonal factors for CPI.

Although the changes were small, CPI over the last 6 months increased 3.1% (annualized) compared to the previously announced 3.3%.

CPI for December was revised down from a 0.30% month-over-month increase to 0.23% with the updated seasonal factors.

Core CPI was essentially unchanged over the last 6 months.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2024 07:30:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Updated Seasonal Factors for CPI (January 2019 through December 2023)

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2024 04:31:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 February

U.S. hotel performance decreased slightly from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 February. ...

28 January through 3 February 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 55.2% (-0.1%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$147.99 (+1.9%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$81.69 (+1.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just below last year, and below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally over the next 2 months.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2024 02:30:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending February 3rd, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 12.2% above year ago levels.

For a 13th consecutive week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers have more homes to choose from that aren’t already in the process of being sold. The added inventory has certainly improved conditions from this time one year ago, but overall inventory is still low. For the month as a whole, January inventory is down nearly 40% below 2017 to 2019 levels.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 12.8% from one year ago.

Newly listed homes were above last year’s levels for the 15th week in a row. It was the biggest jump in nearly three years, which could further contribute to a recovery in active listings meaning more options for home shoppers.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 13th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory.  

Inventory is still historically very low.

New listings really collapsed a year ago, so the YoY comparison for new listings is easier now - although new listings remain well below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 15th consecutive week.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2024 11:23:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in Q4 2023

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2023

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.88 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

...

The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies increased in Q4. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year from 0.57 percent in Q4 2022 to 0.47 percent in Q4 2023 (red), even with the end of the foreclosure moratoriums, and remain historically low.

The primary concern is the increase in 30- and 60-day delinquencies (blue), although still historically low. I don’t think this increase is much of a concern.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2024 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 224,000 to 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 207,750 to 208,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 212,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2024 07:20:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, down from 224 thousand last week.

by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2024 03:39:00 PM

Here is another monthly update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I've now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. 

Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through last August (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

LBR is currently at $551.00 per 1000 board feet, up 5.7% from $521.5 a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May.

We didn't see a significant runup in prices last Spring due to the housing slowdown, and we aren't seeing much of a pickup in early 2024.