by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2024 08:18:00 PM
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes, Architecture Billings Index
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Modestly Lower To Start The Week
Most mortgage lenders set rates for the first time this week on Tuesday (today) due to yesterday's holiday. ... In the bigger picture, rates are still very close to their highest levels in more than 2 months following a series of higher inflation readings last week. [30 year fixed 7.11%]Wednesday:
emphasis added
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of Meeting of January 30-31, 2024
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.22% in January
by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2024 04:20:00 PM
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.22% in January
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 0.23% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.22% as of January 31, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 110,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1 million borrowers since March 2020.At the end of January, there were about 110,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
In January 2024, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance declined 2 basis points to 0.13%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance remained the same at 0.39%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 1 basis point to 0.28%.
“The combination of a potential economic slowdown in 2024, and indications that consumer debt balances and delinquencies are on the rise, could lead to more homeowners struggling to make their mortgage payments and inquire about forbearance and available loan workout options,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Most pandemic-related protocols have sunset, which gives mortgage servicers different rules of engagement when it comes to assisting borrowers through loan forbearance or a loan workout.”
emphasis added
Lawler: Update on Invitation Homes Rental Trends
by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2024 02:49:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Update on Invitation Homes Rental Trends
A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:There is much more in the article.
Below is a table derived from the Q4/2023 (and earlier) Earnings Release and Supplemental Information from Invitation Homes, one of the largest institutional investors in single-family rental homes. (The January figures are based on figures from officials on the earnings conference call.)
Note that while the YOY increase in rent renewals last quarter actually rose slightly from the previous quarter, the YOY increase in new leases was zero, and according to officials on the conference call was negative in January.
DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 2.1% year-over-year in 2023
by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2024 02:19:00 PM
This is something I check occasionally.
The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:
• Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.2% (+5.7 billion vehicle miles) for December 2023 as compared with December 2022. Travel for the month is estimated to be 263.7 billion vehicle miles.Click on graph for larger image.
• The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for December 2023 is 273.0 billion miles, a +2.7% ( +7.3 billion vehicle miles) change over December 2022. It also represents a -0.2% change (-0.5 billion vehicle miles) compared with November 2023.
• Cumulative Travel for 2023 changed by +2.1% (+67.5 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 3,263.7 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added
This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.
Miles driven declined sharply in March 2020, and really collapsed in April 2020. Miles driven are now at pre-pandemic levels.
Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020
by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2024 10:50:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Built-for-Rent Almost Doubled Since 2020
A brief excerpt:
Along with the monthly housing starts report for January released last week, the Census Bureau also released Housing Units Started by Purpose and Design through Q4 2023.There is much more in the article.
The first graph shows the number of single family and multi-family units started with the intent to rent. This data is quarterly and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Although the majority of units built-for-rent’ are still multi-family (blue), there has been a significant pickup in single family units started built-for-rent (red).
In 2020, there were 44,000 single family units started with the intent to rent. In 2023, that number almost doubled to 85,000 units. For multi-family, there were 327,000 units started to rent in 2020, and 393,000 in 2023. About 18% of the built-for-rent units started in 2023 were single family units.
Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus
by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2024 08:59:00 AM
Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for almost 14 years. He has graciously allowed me to share his predictions with the readers of this blog.
The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales. Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer.
Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Month | Consensus | Lawler | NAR reported1 |
May-10 | 6.20 | 5.83 | 5.66 |
Jun-10 | 5.30 | 5.30 | 5.37 |
Jul-10 | 4.66 | 3.95 | 3.83 |
Aug-10 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 4.13 |
Sep-10 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.53 |
Oct-10 | 4.50 | 4.46 | 4.43 |
Nov-10 | 4.85 | 4.61 | 4.68 |
Dec-10 | 4.90 | 5.13 | 5.28 |
Jan-11 | 5.20 | 5.17 | 5.36 |
Feb-11 | 5.15 | 5.00 | 4.88 |
Mar-11 | 5.00 | 5.08 | 5.10 |
Apr-11 | 5.20 | 5.15 | 5.05 |
May-11 | 4.75 | 4.80 | 4.81 |
Jun-11 | 4.90 | 4.71 | 4.77 |
Jul-11 | 4.92 | 4.69 | 4.67 |
Aug-11 | 4.75 | 4.92 | 5.03 |
Sep-11 | 4.93 | 4.83 | 4.91 |
Oct-11 | 4.80 | 4.86 | 4.97 |
Nov-11 | 5.08 | 4.40 | 4.42 |
Dec-11 | 4.60 | 4.64 | 4.61 |
Jan-12 | 4.69 | 4.66 | 4.57 |
Feb-12 | 4.61 | 4.63 | 4.59 |
Mar-12 | 4.62 | 4.59 | 4.48 |
Apr-12 | 4.66 | 4.53 | 4.62 |
May-12 | 4.57 | 4.66 | 4.55 |
Jun-12 | 4.65 | 4.56 | 4.37 |
Jul-12 | 4.50 | 4.47 | 4.47 |
Aug-12 | 4.55 | 4.87 | 4.82 |
Sep-12 | 4.75 | 4.70 | 4.75 |
Oct-12 | 4.74 | 4.84 | 4.79 |
Nov-12 | 4.90 | 5.10 | 5.04 |
Dec-12 | 5.10 | 4.97 | 4.94 |
Jan-13 | 4.90 | 4.94 | 4.92 |
Feb-13 | 5.01 | 4.87 | 4.98 |
Mar-13 | 5.03 | 4.89 | 4.92 |
Apr-13 | 4.92 | 5.03 | 4.97 |
May-13 | 5.00 | 5.20 | 5.18 |
Jun-13 | 5.27 | 4.99 | 5.08 |
Jul-13 | 5.13 | 5.33 | 5.39 |
Aug-13 | 5.25 | 5.35 | 5.48 |
Sep-13 | 5.30 | 5.26 | 5.29 |
Oct-13 | 5.13 | 5.08 | 5.12 |
Nov-13 | 5.02 | 4.98 | 4.90 |
Dec-13 | 4.90 | 4.96 | 4.87 |
Jan-14 | 4.70 | 4.67 | 4.62 |
Feb-14 | 4.64 | 4.60 | 4.60 |
Mar-14 | 4.56 | 4.64 | 4.59 |
Apr-14 | 4.67 | 4.70 | 4.65 |
May-14 | 4.75 | 4.81 | 4.89 |
Jun-14 | 4.99 | 4.96 | 5.04 |
Jul-14 | 5.00 | 5.09 | 5.15 |
Aug-14 | 5.18 | 5.12 | 5.05 |
Sep-14 | 5.09 | 5.14 | 5.17 |
Oct-14 | 5.15 | 5.28 | 5.26 |
Nov-14 | 5.20 | 4.90 | 4.93 |
Dec-14 | 5.05 | 5.15 | 5.04 |
Jan-15 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 4.82 |
Feb-15 | 4.94 | 4.87 | 4.88 |
Mar-15 | 5.04 | 5.18 | 5.19 |
Apr-15 | 5.22 | 5.20 | 5.04 |
May-15 | 5.25 | 5.29 | 5.35 |
Jun-15 | 5.40 | 5.45 | 5.49 |
Jul-15 | 5.41 | 5.64 | 5.59 |
Aug-15 | 5.50 | 5.54 | 5.31 |
Sep-15 | 5.35 | 5.56 | 5.55 |
Oct-15 | 5.41 | 5.33 | 5.36 |
Nov-15 | 5.32 | 4.97 | 4.76 |
Dec-15 | 5.19 | 5.36 | 5.46 |
Jan-16 | 5.32 | 5.36 | 5.47 |
Feb-16 | 5.30 | 5.20 | 5.08 |
Mar-16 | 5.27 | 5.27 | 5.33 |
Apr-16 | 5.40 | 5.44 | 5.45 |
May-16 | 5.64 | 5.55 | 5.53 |
Jun-16 | 5.48 | 5.62 | 5.57 |
Jul-16 | 5.52 | 5.41 | 5.39 |
Aug-16 | 5.44 | 5.49 | 5.33 |
Sep-16 | 5.35 | 5.55 | 5.47 |
Oct-16 | 5.44 | 5.47 | 5.60 |
Nov-16 | 5.54 | 5.60 | 5.61 |
Dec-16 | 5.54 | 5.55 | 5.49 |
Jan-17 | 5.55 | 5.60 | 5.69 |
Feb-17 | 5.55 | 5.41 | 5.48 |
Mar-17 | 5.61 | 5.74 | 5.71 |
Apr-17 | 5.67 | 5.56 | 5.57 |
May-17 | 5.55 | 5.65 | 5.62 |
Jun-17 | 5.58 | 5.59 | 5.52 |
Jul-17 | 5.57 | 5.38 | 5.44 |
Aug-17 | 5.48 | 5.39 | 5.35 |
Sep-17 | 5.30 | 5.38 | 5.39 |
Oct-17 | 5.30 | 5.60 | 5.48 |
Nov-17 | 5.52 | 5.77 | 5.81 |
Dec-17 | 5.75 | 5.66 | 5.57 |
Jan-18 | 5.65 | 5.48 | 5.38 |
Feb-18 | 5.42 | 5.44 | 5.54 |
Mar-18 | 5.28 | 5.51 | 5.60 |
Apr-18 | 5.60 | 5.48 | 5.46 |
May-18 | 5.56 | 5.47 | 5.43 |
Jun-18 | 5.45 | 5.35 | 5.38 |
Jul-18 | 5.43 | 5.40 | 5.34 |
Aug-18 | 5.36 | 5.36 | 5.34 |
Sep-18 | 5.30 | 5.20 | 5.15 |
Oct-18 | 5.20 | 5.31 | 5.22 |
Nov-18 | 5.19 | 5.23 | 5.32 |
Dec-18 | 5.24 | 4.97 | 4.99 |
Jan-19 | 5.05 | 4.92 | 4.94 |
Feb-19 | 5.08 | 5.46 | 5.51 |
Mar-19 | 5.30 | 5.40 | 5.21 |
Apr-19 | 5.36 | 5.31 | 5.19 |
May-19 | 5.29 | 5.40 | 5.34 |
Jun-19 | 5.34 | 5.25 | 5.27 |
Jul-19 | 5.39 | 5.40 | 5.42 |
Aug-19 | 5.38 | 5.42 | 5.49 |
Sep-19 | 5.45 | 5.36 | 5.38 |
Oct-19 | 5.49 | 5.36 | 5.46 |
Nov-19 | 5.45 | 5.43 | 5.35 |
Dec-19 | 5.43 | 5.40 | 5.54 |
Jan-20 | 5.45 | 5.42 | 5.46 |
Feb-20 | 5.50 | 5.58 | 5.77 |
Mar-20 | 5.30 | 5.25 | 5.27 |
Apr-20 | 4.30 | 4.17 | 4.33 |
May-20 | 4.38 | 3.80 | 3.91 |
Jun-20 | 4.86 | 4.65 | 4.72 |
Jul-20 | 5.39 | 5.85 | 5.86 |
Aug-20 | 6.00 | 5.92 | 6.00 |
Sep-20 | 6.25 | 6.38 | 6.54 |
Oct-20 | 6.45 | 6.63 | 6.85 |
Nov-20 | 6.70 | 6.50 | 6.69 |
Dec-20 | 6.55 | 6.62 | 6.76 |
Jan-21 | 6.60 | 6.48 | 6.69 |
Feb-21 | 6.51 | 6.29 | 6.22 |
Mar-21 | 6.17 | 6.02 | 6.01 |
Apr-21 | 6.09 | 5.96 | 5.85 |
May-21 | 5.74 | 5.78 | 5.80 |
Jun-21 | 5.90 | 5.79 | 5.86 |
Jul-21 | 5.84 | 5.86 | 5.99 |
Aug-21 | 5.88 | 5.90 | 5.88 |
Sep-21 | 6.06 | 6.20 | 6.29 |
Oct-21 | 6.20 | 6.34 | 6.34 |
Nov-21 | 6.20 | 6.45 | 6.46 |
Dec-21 | 6.45 | 6.33 | 6.18 |
Jan-22 | 6.12 | 6.36 | 6.50 |
Feb-22 | 6.16 | 5.97 | 6.02 |
Mar-22 | 5.80 | 5.74 | 5.77 |
Apr-22 | 5.62 | 5.57 | 5.61 |
May-22 | 5.41 | 5.35 | 5.41 |
Jun-22 | 5.40 | 5.12 | 5.12 |
Jul-22 | 4.88 | 4.90 | 4.81 |
Aug-22 | 4.70 | 4.84 | 4.80 |
Sep-22 | 4.69 | 4.82 | 4.71 |
Oct-22 | 4.39 | 4.49 | 4.43 |
Nov-22 | 4.20 | 4.16 | 4.09 |
Dec-22 | 3.95 | 3.96 | 4.02 |
Jan-23 | 4.10 | 4.18 | 4.00 |
Feb-23 | 4.18 | 4.51 | 4.58 |
Mar-23 | 4.50 | 4.51 | 4.44 |
Apr-23 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 4.28 |
May-23 | 4.24 | 4.25 | 4.30 |
Jun-23 | 4.23 | 4.26 | 4.16 |
Jul-23 | 4.15 | 4.06 | 4.07 |
Aug-23 | 4.10 | 4.07 | 4.04 |
Sep-23 | 3.94 | 4.00 | 3.96 |
Oct-23 | 3.93 | 3.94 | 3.79 |
Nov-23 | 3.78 | 3.87 | 3.82 |
Dec-23 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 3.78 |
Jan-24 | 3.97 | 4.02 | NA |
1NAR initially reported before revisions. |
Monday, February 19, 2024
Tuesday: No major economic releases scheduled
by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2024 06:18:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of February 18, 2024
Tuesday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).
Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $79.28 per barrel and Brent at $83.28 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $76, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices were up 4% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.25 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.36 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.11 year-over-year.
3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January
by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2024 11:02:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January; California Home Sales Up 5.9% YoY in January
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).There is much more in the article.
This is the third look at several local markets in January. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
...
Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release January existing home sales on Thursday, February 22nd, at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.78 million.
Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.02 million SAAR for January.
...
And a table of January sales.
In January, sales in these markets were up 3.0%. In December, these same markets were down 7.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Sales in most of these markets are down sharply compared to January 2019.
...
More local markets to come!
Housing February 19th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.2% Week-over-week, Up 12.9% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2024 08:12:00 AM
Click on graph for larger image.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
Sunday, February 18, 2024
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 2.7% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 2/18/2024 08:31:00 AM
U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, while year-over-year comparisons remained mixed, according to CoStar’s latest data through 10 February. ...The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
4-10 February 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 56.2% (-2.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.96 (+6.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$90.40 (+3.9%)
emphasis added
The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.