by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2024 01:04:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in March

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to March 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.44% and 6.78%, respectively. This is down from the 7%+ mortgage rates in the August through November period (although rates are now back in the 7% range again).
...
In March, sales in these markets were down 8.9% YoY. In February, these same markets were up 2.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales in all of these markets are down compared to January 2019.
...
This is a year-over-year decrease NSA for these early reporting markets. However, there were two fewer working days in March 2024 compared to March 2023, so sales Seasonally Adjusted will be higher year-over-year than Not Seasonally Adjusted sales.
...
This was just a few early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2024 11:01:00 AM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Fell 9% in March

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, fell 8.6% in March to 164.0 (2000=100) from the revised February reading of 179.5. Over the month, commercial planning fell 3.2% and institutional planning dropped 17.2%.

“In 2023, commercial planning decreased while institutional planning notably improved, sitting 29% above year-ago levels in February 2024. While strong market fundamentals should support institutional planning this year, this side of the Index is more at risk for a substantive correction after last year’s growth,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “Much of the decline on the institutional side is credited to lower levels of education planning. Between February 2023 and February 2024, life science and R&D laboratory projects account for roughly 34% of education planning value, with that share reaching 59% in some months. In March, however, that share dropped to 7%. The surge of lab construction in recent years may lead to decreased planning demand as the market absorbs new supply in 2024. Likely, lower lab volumes will result in education planning returning to its long-run, and more sustainable, average.”
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 164.0 in March, down from 179.5 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a slowdown in 2024.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

by Calculated Risk on 4/08/2024 08:12:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory bottomed in mid-February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, and inventory is now up 3.8% from the February bottom.

Note: the decline this week was due to the Easter holiday, and seasonally, inventory usually increases following Easter.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of April 5th, inventory was at 513 thousand (7-day average), compared to 517 thousand the prior week.   

Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. 

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up almost double from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 24.6% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.0%), and down 38.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 37.9%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2024 06:11:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of April 7, 2024

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 14 and DOW futures are up 99 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $86.91 per barrel and Brent at $91.17 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $80, and Brent was at $87 - so WTI oil prices are up about 8% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.58 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.58 per gallon, so gasoline prices are unchanged year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2024 08:21:00 AM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads fell 3.5% (31,101 carloads) in March 2024 from March 2023, their third straight monthly decline. Total carloads averaged 216,716 per week in March 2024, the fewest for any March in our records that begin in January 1988. In the first quarter of 2024, total carloads were down 4.2%, or 122,088 carloads, from the same period in 2023.

The problem is coal. ...

U.S. railroads also originated 1.02 million intermodal containers and trailers in March, up 11.7% (106,903 units) over March 2023 and their seventh consecutive year-over-year gain.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2022, 2023 and 2024:

In March, total originated U.S. carloads fell 3.5% (31,101 carloads) from March 2023. They averaged 216,716 per week in March 2024, the fewest for any March in our records that begin in January 1988. Total carloads were down 4.2%, or 122,088 carloads, for the year to date.

The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2022, 2023 and 2024: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

U.S. railroads originated 1.02 million intermodal containers and trailers in March, up 11.7% (106,903 units) over March 2023. It’s their seventh straight year-over-year gain. ... U.S. intermodal volume in Q1 2024 was 3.27 million units, virtually the same as the average for the first quarters from 2014 to 2023 (3.28 million).

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q1; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 5.9% Year-over-year

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: The Impact of "Golden-Handcuffs" on Mortgage Payments

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

• Immigration and Household Formation

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2024 08:11:00 AM

The key economic report this week is March CPI.

----- Monday, April 8th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, April 9th -----
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March.

----- Wednesday, April 10th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.4% increase in CPI (up 3.5% YoY) and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 3.7% YoY).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 19-20

----- Thursday, April 11th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225 thousand initial claims, up from 221 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

----- Friday, April 12th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for April).

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2024 07:21:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Hospitalizations have declined significantly from the winter high of 30,027 but are still above the low of 5,386 last year.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Hospitalized2	7,401	8,705	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2	1,002	1,198	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Hospitalized and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Weekly deaths have declined sharply from the recent peak of 2,553 but are still more than double the low of 490 last July.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of March 30th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

Nationally, COVID in wastewater is now off more than 85% from the holiday peak at the end of December, and that suggests weekly hospitalizations and deaths will continue to decline.

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2024 03:10:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our update last week, 1Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.0% q/q saar. Also, 4Q GDP came in at 3.4% q/q saar in the third and final estimate, close to our 3.5% forecast. [Apr 5th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

The details of the trade balance report were somewhat firmer than our previous expectations, and we boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.5%. [Apr 4th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on April 4, down from 2.8 percent on April 1. [April 4th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2024 11:59:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in March

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.1, a decline of 14.7% from a year ago. The decline in the index was driven by the seasonal adjustment, resulting in a 0.4% month-over-month decrease. The non-adjusted price in March increased by 3.1% compared to February, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.4% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices declined in March (seasonally adjusted) and were down 14.7% year-over-year (YoY).