by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2024 11:04:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our update last week, 1Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to 1.9% q/q saar. [Apr 12th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.5% (qoq ar) and our Q1 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.6% (qoq ar). [Apr 10th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.4 percent on April 10, down from 2.5 percent on April 4. [April 10th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2024 08:11:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 April

U.S. hotel performance showed mixed results from the previous week but positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 April. ...

31 March through 6 April 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 64.1% (+4.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.96 (+2.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$100.59 (+6.9%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and also at the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2024 02:11:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 23.5% YoY, but still down almost 38% compared to March 2017 to 2019 levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.4% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data Week Ending April 6, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 30.4% above year ago levels.

For an 22nd straight week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers are able to consider more options for existing homes for sale. However, the number of homes on the market is still down 37.9% compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 30.1% from one year ago.

Listing activities rebounded significantly after a dip during the Easter holiday, reaching the highest growth rate after April 2021.However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that some of this increase can be attributed to the reduced number of listings during this same week last year, likely due to the impact of the Easter holiday.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 22nd consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory.  

Inventory is still historically very low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels although increasing. The YoY decline last week was related to the Easter holiday, and that was reversed this week.

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2024 10:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to March 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in March. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in March were mostly for contracts signed in January and February when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.44% and 6.78%, respectively. This is down from the 7%+ mortgage rates in the August through November period (although rates are now back in the 7%+ range again).
...
And a table of March sales.

In March, sales in these markets were down 9.6% YoY. In February, these same markets were up 3.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Sales in most of these markets are down compared to January 2019.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2024 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 221,000 to 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 214,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2024 07:15:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225 thousand initial claims, up from 221 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2024 02:09:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-April 2024

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-April provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s March 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were 15.5% year-over-year in March. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, sellers turned out in higher numbers this March as newly listed homes were 15.5% above last year’s levels. This marked the fifth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of decline. 

Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but still below normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be in the 6 1/2% to 7 1/2% range.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2024 02:00:00 PM

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, March 19–20, 2024. Excerpt:

In their discussion of inflation, participants observed that significant progress had been made over the past year toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective even though the two most recent monthly readings on core and headline inflation had been firmer than expected. Some participants noted that the recent increases in inflation had been relatively broad based and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations. However, a few participants noted that residual seasonality could have affected the inflation readings at the start of the year. Participants generally commented that they remained highly attentive to inflation risks but that they had also anticipated that there would be some unevenness in monthly inflation readings as inflation returned to target.

In their outlook for inflation, participants noted that they continued to expect that inflation would return to 2 percent over the medium term. They remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm households, especially those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. A few participants remarked that they expected core nonhousing services inflation to decline as the labor market continued to move into better balance and wage growth moderated further. Participants discussed the still-elevated rate of housing services inflation and commented on the uncertainty regarding when and by how much lower readings for rent growth on new leases would pass through to this category of inflation. Several participants noted that the disinflationary pressure for core goods that had resulted from the receding of supply chain bottlenecks was likely to moderate. Other factors related to aggregate supply, such as increases in the labor force or better productivity growth, were viewed by several participants as likely to support continued disinflation. Some participants reported that business contacts had indicated that they were less able to pass on price increases or that consumers were becoming more sensitive to price changes. Some participants observed that longer-term inflation expectations appeared to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
...
Participants noted indicators pointing to strong economic momentum and disappointing readings on inflation in recent months and commented that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2024 11:35:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in March. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.6% (unchanged from 4.6% in February), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.6% (up from 3.5%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.8% (unchanged from 3.8%). 

Core PCE is for February was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in January.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. Rent and Owner's equivalent rent are still very high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be around 1.95% year-over-year. 

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2024 08:54:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.8% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through March 2024.

Services were up 5.3% YoY as of March 2024, unchanged from 5.0% YoY in February.

Services less rent of shelter was up 4.8% YoY in March, up from 3.9% YoY in February.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -2.1% YoY as of March 2024, down from -1.6% YoY in February.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -0.7% YoY in March, down from -0.3% YoY in February.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through March) and housing from the PCE report (through February)

Shelter was up 5.6% year-over-year in March, down from 5.8% in February. Housing (PCE) was up 5.8% YoY in February, down from 6.1% in January.

This is still catching up with private data.  The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline. Combined, these two indexes contributed over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items."

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.4% YoY in March, up from 2.2% in February.