by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations, however hospitalizations were at a pandemic low three weeks ago.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	374	471	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Weekly deaths have declined from the recent peak of 2,561 and are now below the previous pandemic low of 491 last July.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 11th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

Nationally, COVID in wastewater is now off more than 90% from the holiday peak at the end of December - and also near the lows of last year - and that suggests weekly deaths will continue to decline.   However, there was a slight uptick recently, especially in the West.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 02:21:00 PM

From BofA:

2Q GDP tracking is down a tenth to 1.8% q/q saar. Also, we expect the second print of 1Q GDP to be revised down to 1.2% from 1.6%. [May 24th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.2% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales estimate by the same amount to +2.5%. [May 24th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 3.5 percent on May 24, down from 3.6 percent on May 16. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 5.6 percent to 5.1 percent. [May 24th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 11:16:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply!

A brief excerpt:

Although inventory is well below normal levels, so are sales. I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months - and that is unlikely this year - but we could see months-of-supply back to 2019 levels later this year.

What would it take to get months-of-supply back to 2019 levels by mid-year? The following table is a simple exercise. If sales stay depressed at 2023 levels, how much would inventory have to increase to put months-of-supply at 2019 levels?

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 11:01:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 May

The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance from the previous week and positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 May. ...

12-18 May 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 67.4% (+0.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.11 (+2.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.93 (+2.8%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year, and slightly above the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally when the summer travel season begins.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 08:12:00 AM

From WardsAuto: May U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking to Annualized Rate Flat with April (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

There is a good possibility sales end May above expectations, depending on much holiday marketing pulls in additional buyers. Second-quarter sales are pegged at a 15.9 million-unit SAAR, with volume rising 1% from the year-ago period.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for May (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.8 million SAAR, would be up 0.4% from last month, and up 1.8% from a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 07:09:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 67.4.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 04:15:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.4% YoY, but still down almost 36% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 35.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending May 18, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 35.5% above year-ago levels

For the 28th straight week, there were more homes listed for sale versus the prior year, giving homebuyers more options.

This past week, the inventory of homes for sale grew by 35.5% compared with last year, and it was the highest since July 2020 in the early days of the COVID-19 Pandemic. This growth in inventory is primarily driven by housing markets in the South, which saw a 43.0% year-over-year increase in inventory in April.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 8.1% from one year ago.

Seller activity continued to climb annually last week and accelerated relative to the previous week’s growth. Newly listed homes grew by 8.1% compared with a year ago, an acceleration from the 6.6% growth rate in the previous week.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 28th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically very low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels although up year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 01:55:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 634,000 Annual Rate in April

Brief excerpt:

Note: there were some seasonal revisions back to 2019, and significant changes to house prices and price distribution in this release.

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 634 thousand. The previous three months were revised down.
...
The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in April 2024 were down 6.6% from April 2023.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 634 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down.

Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.7 percent below the revised March rate of 665,000 and is 7.7 percent below the April 2023 estimate of 687,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in April to 9.1 months from 8.5 months in March.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 480,000. This represents a supply of 9.1 months at the current sales rate."

Sales were well below expectations of 680 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were revised down. I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending May 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 222,000 to 223,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 217,750 to 218,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 219,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.