by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2024 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May:

Personal income income increased $114.1 billion (0.5 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $94.0 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2 percent).

The PCE price index decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Real DPI increased 0.5 percent in May and real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

The May PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.7 percent YoY in April, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.8 percent in April, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May 2024 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was above expectations, and PCE was below expectations.

Inflation was below expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q2 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 1.8% annual rate in Q2 2024. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 1.8%).  This suggests decent PCE growth in Q2.

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2024 08:34:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2024. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. 

• At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June).

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2024 04:32:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With festivals such as EDC, coupled with convention attendance ahead of last year, May saw the destination host more than 3.6M visitors, showing a healthy 4.6% YoY gain for the month.

Among the churn of rotational shows, Waste Expo returned to Las Vegas in May (14k attendees, last here in May 2022), and the destination hosted the Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo for the first time (10k+ attendees).

Overall hotel occupancy reached 86.1% (up 1.7 pts), as Weekend occupancy reached 93.4% (up 0.2 pts) and Midweek occupancy reaching 82.5% (up 1.7 pts). ADR exceeded $200 with RevPAR over $172, showing YoY increases of 9.1% and 11.3%, respectively.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (dark orange) and 2024 (red).

Visitor traffic was up 4.6% compared to last May.  Visitor traffic was down 0.9% compared to the same month in 2019.

Year-to-date visitor traffic is up 0.4% compared to 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was up 1.8% compared to May 2023, and down 11.3% compared to May 2019.  

Year-to-date convention traffic is down 8.7% compared to 2019.

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2024 03:47:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 36.1% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 22, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 36.1% above year-ago levels.

For the 33rd week in a row, the number of for-sale homes grew compared with one year ago. This past week, the inventory of homes for sale grew by 36.1% compared with last year, essentially the same gap as in recent weeks. While recent inventory growth is substantial compared to a year ago, it highlights just how far inventory had fallen. Even after recent growth, active inventory in May was down more than 30% from typical pre-pandemic levels.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 7.4% from one year ago.

Seller activity is up compared to one year ago, but momentum has waned from recent weeks and earlier this year. Realtor.com analysis shows that 87% of outstanding mortgages have a rate below 6%. If these homeowners sell, they are relinquishing relatively inexpensive debt for today’s roughly 7% mortgage rates, a costly proposition. As rates ease, they will cause less drag on the ‘move or stay’ calculus, and we are likely to see an increase in seller interest.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 32nd consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels although up year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2024 12:46:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.3% Below Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 18 years since the bubble peak. In the April Case-Shiller house price index released on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 73% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is 1% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.  As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $432,000 today adjusted for inflation (44% increase).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.3% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.0% below the recent peak in 2022. Both indexes were mostly unchanged in April in real terms.

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2024 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.1% in May

Pending home sales in May slipped 2.1%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest and South posted monthly losses in transactions while the Northeast and West recorded gains. Year-over-year, all U.S. regions registered reductions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 70.8 in May. Year over year, pending transactions were down 6.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“The market is at an interesting point with rising inventory and lower demand,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation in upcoming months. Inevitably, more inventory in a job-creating economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage rates descend.”
...
The Northeast PHSI ascended 1.1% from last month to 63.6, a decline of 2.3% from May 2023. The Midwest index dropped 0.4% to 70.4 in May, down 5.6% from one year ago.

The South PHSI lowered 5.5% to 83.7 in May, falling 10.4% from the prior year. The West index increased 1.4% in May to 56.7, down 2.1% from May 2023.
emphasis added

This was well below expectations. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July.

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2024 08:35:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 232,750 to 233,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 236,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2024 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, First Quarter 2024

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.3 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. These revisions were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending (refer to "Updates to GDP").

The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports increased.
emphasis added

Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised down from 2.0% to 1.5%. Residential investment was revised up from 15.4% to 16.0%.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2024 07:26:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, up from 238 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.3% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the second estimate of a 1.3% increase.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in the index.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for June.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2024 01:46:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: ABI May 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms continue to soften

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score declined to 42.4 for the month, as more firms reported a decrease in billings in May than in April. In addition, there is increasing softness in the pipeline of new work coming into firms. While inquiries into new projects continued to increase, they did so at a slower pace than in recent months. And the value of new signed design contracts declined further in May, following a small decrease in April. Despite the fact that the high inflation of the last few years has largely receded, elevated interest rates continue to cause hesitation among many clients.

Firm billings remained soft across all regions and sectors as well in May. Billings declined at firms in all regions of the country for the fourth consecutive month, as conditions remained weakest at firms located in the Midwest. Business conditions also softened further in May at firms with an institutional specialization, while fewer firms with commercial/industrial and multifamily residential specializations reported a decline in billings in May than in April. However, a majority of firms of both specializations still reported weak business conditions.
...
The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added

• Northeast (47.7); Midwest (41.7); South (46.0); West (46.3)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (48.2); institutional (43.2); multifamily residential (47.3)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 42.4 in May, down from 48.3 in April.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2024.

Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for twenty-two consecutive months (with revisions).   This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.