by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2024 07:13:00 PM
Monday, July 15, 2024
Tuesday: Retail Sales, Homebuilder Survey
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates' Impressive Winning Streak Faces Increasing Resistance
We occasionally reference 5 day winning streaks for mortgage rates as the sort of uncommon occurrence that greatly increases the odds of at least a temporary pullback. Longer streaks do happen, but odds of a pullback increase sharply after 8 days.Tuesday:
With all that in mind, today marked the 8th straight day of improvement in mortgage rates.[30 year fixed 6.81%]
emphasis added
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for no change in retail sales.
• At 10:00 AM, The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 44, up from 43. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024
by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2024 11:21:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024
A brief excerpt:
Last week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.There is much more in the article.
In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up slightly less YoY in the May Case-Shiller index. The NAR reported median prices were up 5.8% YoY in May, up from 5.4% YoY in April. The month-to-month decline in existing home sales in May was due to the South region where prices are the lowest, and this regional decline in sales probably boosted the median price slightly.
ICE reported prices were up 4.6% YoY in May, down from 5.3% YoY in April, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 5.9% YoY in May, down from 6.4% YoY in April.
Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.
The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will likely be lower YoY in May compared to April.
Housing July 15th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.2% Week-over-week, Up 38.1% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2024 08:14:00 AM
Click on graph for larger image.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
Sunday, July 14, 2024
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2024 07:19:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of July 14, 2024
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, unchanged from -6.0.
• At 12:30 PM, Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Conversation with David M. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 1 and DOW futures are up 43 (fair value).
Oil prices were higher over the last week with WTI futures at $82.21 per barrel and Brent at $85.03 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are up about 10% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.50 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.54 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.04 year-over-year.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.9% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2024 08:15:00 AM
Due to the Fourth of July, the U.S. hotel industry reported lower performance results from the previous week and mixed comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 July. ...The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
30 June through 6 July 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 61.3% (-0.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.27 (+0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$96.35 (-0.4%)
emphasis added
The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.
Saturday, July 13, 2024
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: A Discussion of the Housing Market
by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2024 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024
• A Discussion of the Housing Market with Lance Lambert (ResiClub)
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May, Multi-family Increased Slightly
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in June
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of July 14, 2024
by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2024 08:44:00 AM
The key reports this week are June Retail Sales and Housing Starts.
For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, unchanged from -6.0.
12:30 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Conversation with David M. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.
8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for no change in retail sales.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
10:00 AM: The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 44, up from 43. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for June.
This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.
The consensus is for 1.310 million SAAR, up from 1.277 million SAAR in May.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June.
This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.6%.
2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 228 thousand initial claims, up from 222 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 2.9, up from 1.0.
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for June 2024
Friday, July 12, 2024
July 12th COVID Update: Wastewater Measure Increasing Sharply
by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2024 09:12:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
COVID Metrics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
Deaths per Week✅🚩 | 327 | 290 | ≤3501 | |
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met. |
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.
This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June
by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2024 12:45:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to June 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).There is much more in the article.
This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in May. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in June were mostly for contracts signed in April and May when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.99% and 7.06%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS). May was the first month since last Fall with average 30-year mortgage rates over 7%.
...
In June, sales in these markets were down 11.8% YoY. Last month, in May, these same markets were down 0.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
...
This is a year-over-year decrease NSA for these early reporting markets. However, there were two fewer working days in June 2024 compared to June 2023 (19 vs 21), so seasonally adjusted sales will be much higher than the NSA data suggests.
...
Many more local markets to come!
Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2%
by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2024 10:50:00 AM
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, 2Q GDP tracking is up one-tenth to 2.0% q/q saar. The increase largely results from a lower-than-expected June CPI print. [July 12th estimate]From Goldman:
emphasis added
We lowered our Q2 GDP forecast to +1.8% (qoq ar). [July 8th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 2.0 percent on July 10, up from 1.5 percent on July 3. After last Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.1 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and 7.6 percent. [July 10th estimate]