by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2024 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 43 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: High Mortgage Rates Continue to Hold Back Builder Confidence

Mortgage rates that averaged 6.92% in June per Freddie Mac, along with elevated rates for construction and development loans, continue to put a damper on builder sentiment.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in July, down one point from June, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the lowest reading since December 2023.

“While buyers appear to be waiting for lower interest rates, the six-month sales expectation for builders moved higher, indicating that builders expect mortgage rates to edge lower later this year as inflation data are showing signs of easing,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan.

“Though inflation is still above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, it appears to be back on a cooling trend. NAHB is forecasting Fed rate reductions to begin at the end of this year, and this action will lower interest rates for home buyers, builders and developers,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And while home inventory is increasing, total market inventory remains lean at a 4.4 months’ supply, indicating a long-run need for more home construction.”

The July HMI survey also revealed that 31% of builders cut home prices to bolster sales in July, above the June rate of 29%. However, the average price reduction in July held steady at 6% for the 13th straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives held steady at 61% in July, the same reading as June.
...
The HMI index charting current sales conditions in July fell one point to 47 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers also declined by a single-point to 27. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased one point to 48.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell six points to 56, the Midwest dropped four points to 43, the South decreased two points to 44 and the West posted a four-point decline to 37.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was slightly below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2024 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were "virtually unchanged" from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.3 percent from June 2023.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.3 billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, but up 2.3 percent above June 2023. ... The April 2024 to May 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.1 percent to up 0.3 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.2% in June.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 2.7% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in June was at expectations, and sales in April and May were revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2024 07:13:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates' Impressive Winning Streak Faces Increasing Resistance

We occasionally reference 5 day winning streaks for mortgage rates as the sort of uncommon occurrence that greatly increases the odds of at least a temporary pullback. Longer streaks do happen, but odds of a pullback increase sharply after 8 days.

With all that in mind, today marked the 8th straight day of improvement in mortgage rates.[30 year fixed 6.81%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for no change in retail sales.

• At 10:00 AM, The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 44, up from 43. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2024 11:21:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024

A brief excerpt:

Last week, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
Other measures of house prices suggest prices will be up slightly less YoY in the May Case-Shiller index. The NAR reported median prices were up 5.8% YoY in May, up from 5.4% YoY in April. The month-to-month decline in existing home sales in May was due to the South region where prices are the lowest, and this regional decline in sales probably boosted the median price slightly.

ICE reported prices were up 4.6% YoY in May, down from 5.3% YoY in April, and Freddie Mac reported house prices were up 5.9% YoY in May, down from 6.4% YoY in April.

Here is a comparison of year-over-year change in the FMHPI, median house prices from the NAR, and the Case-Shiller National index.

The FMHPI and the NAR median prices appear to be leading indicators for Case-Shiller. Based on recent monthly data, and the FMHPI, the YoY change in the Case-Shiller index will likely be lower YoY in May compared to April.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2024 08:14:00 AM

Inventory growth paused this week, likely due to the July 4th holiday weekend.  

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 31.9% from the February seasonal bottom.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of July 12th, inventory was at 651 thousand (7-day average), compared to 653 thousand the prior week.   

Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. 

The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up 75% from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.

Inventory was up 38.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 40.0%), and down 31.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 31.2%). 

Inventory should be above 2020 levels for the same week next week.

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2024 07:19:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of July 14, 2024

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, unchanged from -6.0.

• At 12:30 PM, Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Conversation with David M. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 1 and DOW futures are up 43 (fair value).

Oil prices were higher over the last week with WTI futures at $82.21 per barrel and Brent at $85.03 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $75, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are up about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.50 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.54 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.04 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2024 08:15:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 July

Due to the Fourth of July, the U.S. hotel industry reported lower performance results from the previous week and mixed comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 July. ...

30 June through 6 July 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 61.3% (-0.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$157.27 (+0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$96.35 (-0.4%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking just behind last year and is below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase seasonally due to summer recreational travel.

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2024

• A Discussion of the Housing Market with Lance Lambert (ResiClub)

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May, Multi-family Increased Slightly

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in June

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2024 08:44:00 AM

The key reports this week are June Retail Sales and Housing Starts.

For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, July 15th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, unchanged from -6.0.

12:30 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Conversation with David M. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

----- Tuesday, July 16th -----
8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for no change in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

10:00 AM: The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 44, up from 43. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Wednesday, July 17th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for June.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.310 million SAAR, up from 1.277 million SAAR in May.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.6%.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, July 18th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 228 thousand initial claims, up from 222 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 2.9, up from 1.0.

----- Friday, July 19th -----
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for June 2024

by Calculated Risk on 7/12/2024 09:12:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week✅🚩	327	290	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths have met the original goal to stop posting, I'm going to continue to see if deaths increase again.   This week was up from the pandemic low.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of July 11th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is increasing - especially in the West and South - and unfortunately this suggests weekly deaths will likely increase further.