by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2024 11:01:00 AM

From BofA:

Next week, we will launch our 3Q GDP tracker with the July retail sales print. [August 9th update]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.0%. [August 6th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 8, unchanged from August 6 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.8 percent to 2.9 percent. [August 8th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2024 08:21:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported slightly positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 August. ...

28 July through 3 August 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 69.4% (+0.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.63 (+0.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$110.84 (+1.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

This was probably the peak for the 4-week average of the occupancy rate in 2024, and the average will start declining into the late summer and early Fall.

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2024 03:21:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Expands Another 8% in July

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased 7.9% in July to 216.3 (2000=100) from the revised June reading of 200.5. Over the month, commercial planning increased 6.8% and institutional planning expanded 11.1%.

“While data centers have had an outsized influence on nonresidential planning activity in recent months, more momentum is building across many other major sectors and diversifying the story behind July’s growth,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “The potential Fed rate cut in September is becoming increasingly more likely, alongside slower inflation and weaker labor market conditions. This is likely driving owners and developers to remain optimistic about 2025 market conditions and pushing more projects into the planning queue.”

Within the commercial portion of the Index, growth was widespread across all segments. Data centers continued to play an important role in growth, and retail planning has been steadily accelerating over the past eight months. On the institutional side, healthcare was the primary driver of this month’s expansion. In July, the DMI was 17% higher than in July of 2023. The commercial segment was up 35% from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was down 14% over the same period.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 198.6 in June, up from 1179.9 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a slowdown in 2024 and early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2024 01:32:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For June, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 36.6% YoY, but still down 30.6% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 35.9% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending August 3, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 35.9% above year-ago levels.

For the 39th week in a row, the number of for-sale homes grew compared with one year ago. While the gap with last year has generally been increasing, helping propel inventory to a post-pandemic high in July, this past week the rise was 35.9%, slightly more modest than the rate observed in the prior week.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were back up this week by 6.7% from one year ago.

After last week’s trend breaking decline, new listings were back up this week, marking a 16th week of growth in the last 18 weeks.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 39th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2024 10:53:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Atlanta Fed: Home Ownership Affordability Monitor

A brief excerpt:

Here is another measure of affordability that readers might find useful from the Atlanta Fed: Home Ownership Affordability Monitor

Here is a graph of affordability (higher is more affordable), and of the year-over-year change in affordability through May 2024. By this measure, houses are essentially the least affordable since the Atlanta Fed started tracking affordability (October 2023 was slightly less affordable than May 2024). Note that the Atlanta Fed projects income.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/08/2024 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 249,000 to 250,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 238,000 to 238,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2024 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, down from 249 thousand last week.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2024 03:01:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: June 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

Las Vegas hosted nearly 3.5M visitors in June, beating last June by 1.8%.

Estimated convention attendance neared 420k but with a YoY decrease of ‐7.9% tied to some show rotation cycles, including the absence of the SHRM conference (20k attendees) that was held in Las Vegas last year but elsewhere this June, and the scheduling difference of the Las Vegas Licensing Expo (25k attendees) that fell in May this year vs. June in 2023.

Overall hotel occupancy reached 85.2% (down 0.3 pts), with YoY gains in Weekend occupancy (91.3%, up 1.1 pts) while Midweek occupancy (82.6%), was down ‐0.9 pts vs. last June. ADR of roughly $176 exceeded last year by 6.4%, and RevPAR approached $150, up 6.0% YoY.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (dark orange) and 2024 (red).

Visitor traffic was up 1.8% compared to last June.  Visitor traffic was down 3.2% compared to June 2019.

Year-to-date visitor traffic is down 0.2% compared to 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was down 7.9% compared to June 2023, and down 18.4% compared to June 2019.  

Year-to-date convention traffic is down 10.1% compared to 2019.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2024 11:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to July 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in July. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 7.06% and 6.92%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
...
In July, sales in these markets were up 4.6% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were down 6.7% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were two more working days in July 2024 compared to July 2023 (22 vs 20), so seasonally adjusted sales will be much lower than the NSA data suggests.

Sales in all of these markets are down significantly compared to July 2019.
...
This was just a several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/07/2024 10:10:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in July

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in July compared to June. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 201.6, a decline of 4.8% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index amplified the impact on the month, resulting in values that rose 2.8% month over month. The non-adjusted price in July increased by 0.6% compared to June, moving the unadjusted average price down 5.9% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices increased in July (seasonally adjusted) and were down 4.8% year-over-year (YoY).