by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2024 06:44:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week🚩	1,139	1,022	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm going to continue to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are more almost quadruple the low of 302 in early June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of September 19th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is now declining.

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2024 11:26:00 AM

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.9%.
emphasis added [Sept 19th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on September 18, down from 3.0 percent on September 17. [Sept 18th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2024 09:01:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 14 September

The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 14 September. ...

8-14 September 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 66.6% (-1.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$162.05 (+0.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$107.86 (-1.4%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase over the next several during the fall business travel season.

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2024 07:15:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for August 2024

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2024 02:48:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For August, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 5.8% YoY, but still down 26.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 33.0% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Sept. 14, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 33.0% above year-ago levels

For the 45th consecutive week dating to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year over year, and this week continues a string of growth rates in the mid-30% range that started in April. This is a slight decrease from last week’s gain of 33.4%. As we discussed above and below, it’s important to note that much of the increase in inventory is due to listings accumulating on a slow market rather than a surge in new listings.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—ticked up by 6.6% from one year ago

As the recent easing of mortgage rates kept encouraging many sellers to return to the market, the year-over-year growth in new listings continued this week. With mortgage rates nearly 1 percentage point lower than last year and the announcement of a rate cut, we expect sellers’ motivation to sell could continue to rise this fall. In addition, as rates are likely to be even lower in 2025, a larger increase in listing activity is expected next spring.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 45th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2024 11:15:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.86 million SAAR in August

Excerpt:

Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales declined 4.2% year-over-year compared to August 2023. This was the thirty-sixth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2024 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Declined 2.5% in August

In August 2024, existing-home sales fell in the South, West, and Northeast, while the Midwest registered no change. Year-over-year, sales slipped in three regions but remained stable in the Northeast.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in August (3.86 million SAAR) were down 2.5% from the previous month and were 4.2% below the August 2023 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.35 million in August from 1.34 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 22.7% year-over-year (blue) in August compared to August 2023.

Months of supply (red) increased to 4.2 months in August from 4.1 months the previous month.

The sales rate was at the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 9/19/2024 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 230,000 to 231,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,750 to 231,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 230,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2024 07:29:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 235 thousand initial claims, up from 230 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -7.0.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.85 million SAAR, down from 3.95 million in July.

by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2024 02:12:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is slightly above expectations, and inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up a little later this year).

In June, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 5.125% at the end of 2024.  The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 4.5% at the end of 2024.  

Market participants expect the target range to be around 4.25% at the end of 2024.

The BEA's second estimate for Q2 GDP showed real growth at 3.0% annualized, following 1.4% annualized real growth in Q1.  Early estimates for Q2 GDP are around 3% annualized, however, projections for Q4 2024 were revised down slightly!

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2024	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2024	1.9 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.2	1.9 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.1
June 2024	1.9 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.2	1.8 to 2.1	---

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in August and the projections for Q4 2024 were revised up.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2024	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2024	4.3 to 4.4	4.2 to 4.5	4.0 to 4.4	4.0 to 4.4
June 2024	3.9 to 4.2	3.9 to 4.3	3.9 to 4.3	---

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.5 percent year-over-year (YoY). The projections for PCE inflation were revised down.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2024	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2024	2.2 to 2.4	2.1 to 2.2	2.0	2.0
June 2024	2.5 to 2.9	2.2 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.1	---

PCE core inflation increased 2.6 percent YoY in July. The projections for core PCE inflation were about the same.  

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2024	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2024	2.6 to 2.7	2.1 to 2.3	2.0	2.0
June 2024	2.8 to 3.0	2.3 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.1	---