by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	1,157	1,159	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are almost quadruple the low of 302 in early June but are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of October 10th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is declining - now about double the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 01:50:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Oct. 5, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 30.5% above year-ago levels.

For the 48th consecutive week dating back to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year-over-year. This week’s growth was lower than last week’s, the third week of slowing growth, and the lowest annual change since April. Much of the inventory build up is due to more seller activity than buyer activity, but this week’s boost in new listings made for a sizable week-over-week increase in homes for sale.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale-increased 8.0% this week compared to one year ago.

The number of new listings has continued to increase, the annual increase picked up the pace this week. The pick up in fresh listings may be in response to recent improvements in mortgage rates, but it will likely take further improvement to move the needle in a more significant way.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 48th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 10:47:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-October provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale! And currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s September 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.6% year-over-year in September. New listings are still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

Perhaps the biggest news this month is that sellers stormed back this September as newly listed homes were 11.6% above last year’s levels and a significant reversal from August’s 0.9% decrease. We noted last month that the sharp decrease in mortgage rates seen in mid-August could lead to an increase in listings in the coming months as lower rates begin to entice the marginal homeowner to sell, and that’s exactly what happened in September.

Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but still well below normal levels.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 08:10:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is unchanged at 2.6% q/q saar. [Oct 11th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.8%. [Oct 8th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on October 9, unchanged from October 8 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.4 percent to 3.3 percent. [Oct 9th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 07:42:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 04:11:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.1% (down from 4.2% in August), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (unchanged from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.3% (up from 3.2%). 

Core PCE is for August was up 2.7% YoY, up from 2.6% in July.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. Motor fuel decreased at a 39% annual rate in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 01:24:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices to Income

A brief excerpt:

One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes. Unfortunately, most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).

And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measures of income.

House Price to National Average Wage Index

For the following graph I decided to look at house prices and the National Average Wage Index released this morning for 2023 from Social Security.

The National Average Wage Index increased to $66,621.80 in 2023, up 4.43% from $63,795.13 in 2022. This was the third consecutive year with strong wage gains, and wages are up almost 20% over the last 3 years.

The last time we saw 3-year wage gains this high was in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Another reason to compare the current housing cycle to the 1978 to 1982 period (not the housing bubble and bust).

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 09:20:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 4.4% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024.

Services were up 4.7% YoY as of September 2024, down from 4.8% YoY in August.

Services less rent of shelter was up 4.4% YoY in September, up from 4.3% YoY in August.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were at -2.9% YoY as of September 2024, up from -4.2% YoY in August.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.2% YoY in September, up from -1.7% YoY in August.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through September) and housing from the PCE report (through August)

Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in September, down from 5.2% in August. Housing (PCE) was up 5.3% YoY in August, up from 5.2% in July.

The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter rose 0.2 percent in September, and the index for food increased 0.4 percent. Together, these two indexes contributed over 75 percent of the monthly all items increase."

This is still catching up with private data.

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.0% YoY in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 08:56:00 AM

With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2025.

From Social Security: Social Security Announces 2.5 Percent Benefit Increase for 2025

Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for more than 72.5 million Americans will increase 2.5 percent in 2025, the Social Security Administration announced today. On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by about $50 per month starting in January.

Over the last decade the COLA increase has averaged about 2.6 percent. The COLA was 3.2 percent in 2024.
...
Some other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages.  Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) is slated to increase to $176,100 from $168,600.

Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (2.5% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments.

The contribution and benefit base will be $168,600 in 2024.

The National Average Wage Index increased to $ 66,621.80 in 2023, up 4.4% from $63,795.13 in 2022 (used to calculate contribution base). 

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 08:41:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, an increase of 33,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 225,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since August 5, 2023 when it was 258,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 231,000.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast. 

The increase this week is partially hurricane related, for example North Carolina had a sharp increase in initial claims from 2,941 the prior week to 11,475 in the week ending Oct 5th.