by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2024 11:19:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
...
In September, sales in these markets were down 4.2% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 5.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in September 2024 (20) as in September 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data. Last month there was one fewer working day in August 2024 compared to August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted sales were down less than NSA sales.
...
This data suggests that the September existing home sales report will show a year-over-year decline.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2024 08:17:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.3% from the February seasonal bottom.  

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 34.0% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 36.7%), and down 22/6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.1%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 11th, inventory was at 732 thousand (7-day average), compared to 734 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2024 09:20:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 October

Due to Rosh Hashana, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 October. ...

29 September through 5 October 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 65.6% (-3.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.25 (-4.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$102.44 (-7.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is near the peak for the fall business travel season, and then will decline during the holidays.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs "Spike", Especially in Florida

• House Prices to Income

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2024 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are September Retail Sales and Housing Starts.

For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, October 14th -----
Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open.

----- Tuesday, October 15th -----
8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 2.4, down from 11.5.

----- Wednesday, October 16th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, October 17th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, up from 258 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 3.0, up from 1.7.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.9%.

10:00 AM: The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 42, up from 41 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Friday, October 18th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.350 million SAAR, down from 1.356 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	1,157	1,159	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are almost quadruple the low of 302 in early June but are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of October 10th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is declining - now about double the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 01:50:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 30.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Oct. 5, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 30.5% above year-ago levels.

For the 48th consecutive week dating back to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year-over-year. This week’s growth was lower than last week’s, the third week of slowing growth, and the lowest annual change since April. Much of the inventory build up is due to more seller activity than buyer activity, but this week’s boost in new listings made for a sizable week-over-week increase in homes for sale.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale-increased 8.0% this week compared to one year ago.

The number of new listings has continued to increase, the annual increase picked up the pace this week. The pick up in fresh listings may be in response to recent improvements in mortgage rates, but it will likely take further improvement to move the needle in a more significant way.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 48th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 10:47:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-October provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale! And currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s September 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were up 11.6% year-over-year in September. New listings are still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

Perhaps the biggest news this month is that sellers stormed back this September as newly listed homes were 11.6% above last year’s levels and a significant reversal from August’s 0.9% decrease. We noted last month that the sharp decrease in mortgage rates seen in mid-August could lead to an increase in listings in the coming months as lower rates begin to entice the marginal homeowner to sell, and that’s exactly what happened in September.

Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but still well below normal levels.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 08:10:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate is unchanged at 2.6% q/q saar. [Oct 11th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.8%. [Oct 8th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on October 9, unchanged from October 8 after rounding. After this morning's wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.4 percent to 3.3 percent. [Oct 9th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2024 07:42:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).