RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2024 11:32:00 AM
Wednesday, October 16, 2024
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
Note: I've received a number of requests lately to post this again, so here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms. We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.
Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now. But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.
The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Trump only served one term.
Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.
There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (light purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession. There was a pandemic related recession in 2020.
First, here is a table for private sector jobs. The previous top two private sector terms were both under President Clinton.
| Term | Private Sector Jobs Added (000s) |
|---|---|
| Biden | 14,5561 |
| Clinton 1 | 10,876 |
| Clinton 2 | 10,094 |
| Obama 2 | 9,926 |
| Reagan 2 | 9,351 |
| Carter | 9,039 |
| Reagan 1 | 5,363 |
| Obama 1 | 1,907 |
| GHW Bush | 1,507 |
| GW Bush 2 | 443 |
| GW Bush 1 | -820 |
| Trump | -2,192 |
| 1After 44 months. | |
Click on graph for larger image.The first graph is for private employment only.
Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,970,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 377,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,833,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue). During Trump's term (Orange), the economy lost 2,135,000 private sector jobs.
In the first 44 months of President Biden's term (Blue), the economy has added 14,556,000 private sector jobs, with the initial growth as the economy recovered from the pandemic.
A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment. Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020.
The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs). However, the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 263,000 jobs). During Trump's term, the economy lost 528,000 public sector jobs.
A big difference between the presidencies has been public sector employment. Note: the bumps in public sector employment due to the decennial Census in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs). However, the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 263,000 jobs). During Trump's term, the economy lost 528,000 public sector jobs.
In the first 44 months of President Biden's term, the economy has added 1,633,000 public sector jobs (about 93% of public job growth has been for state and local governments, and about 55% for education).
| Term | Public Sector Jobs Added (000s) |
|---|---|
| Biden | 1,6331 |
| Reagan 2 | 1,438 |
| Carter | 1,304 |
| Clinton 2 | 1,242 |
| GHW Bush | 1,127 |
| GW Bush 1 | 900 |
| GW Bush 2 | 844 |
| Clinton 1 | 692 |
| Obama 2 | 447 |
| Reagan 1 | -24 |
| Trump | -528 |
| Obama 1 | -710 |
| 1After 44 months. | |
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2024 07:00:00 AM
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2024.
The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 17 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 26 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage rates moved higher for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.52 percent, its highest level since August,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The recent uptick in rates has put a damper on applications. Refinance applications fell 26 percent to their lowest level since August, with comparable drops in both conventional and government refinances. This pushed the refinance share of applications back below 50 percent for the first time in over a month. Furthermore, purchase applications also decreased but notably remain 7 percent higher than a year ago.”
Added Kan, “Demand is holding up to an extent for prospective first-time buyers. FHA purchase applications were little changed despite the increase in rates, as some first-time homebuyers remain in the market because of improving housing inventory conditions.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.52 percent from 6.36 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.
According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 7% year-over-year unadjusted.
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).
Purchase application activity is up about 10% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 8% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.
The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.
With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined last month but decreased over the last three weeks as rates increased.
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Wednesday: Mortgage Applications
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2024 07:54:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2024 12:13:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024
A brief excerpt:
On Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.There is much more in the article.
In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
“If you do not know where you come from, then you don't know where you are, and if you don't know where you are, then you don't know where you're going. And if you don't know where you're going, you're probably going wrong.” Terry Pratchett
These “Current State” summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going!
The Case-Shiller National Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in July and will likely slow further in the August report (based on other data).
For the second consecutive month, the MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.18% (a 2.2% annual rate), This was the eighteenth consecutive MoM increase, but this tied the previous as the smallest MoM increase in the last 18 months.
Lawler: Changes in Various Interest Rates Since the FOMC Cut Its Target Fed Funds Rate by 50 Basis Points
by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2024 08:49:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Changes in Various Interest Rates Since the FOMC Cut Its Target Fed Funds Rate by 50 Basis Points
A brief excerpt:
From housing economist Tom Lawler:
Below is a table showing changes in various interest rates from the day before the FOMC’s 50 basis point cut in its Fed Funds rate target and last Friday.
CR Notes: After the Fed rate cut, the longer-term rates increased (including mortgage rates). The yield curve has reverted ...
Monday, October 14, 2024
2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September
by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2024 11:19:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September
A brief excerpt:
NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).There is much more in the article.
This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
...
In September, sales in these markets were down 4.2% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 5.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
Important: There were the same number of working days in September 2024 (20) as in September 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data. Last month there was one fewer working day in August 2024 compared to August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted sales were down less than NSA sales.
...
This data suggests that the September existing home sales report will show a year-over-year decline.
...
Many more local markets to come!
Housing Oct 14th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 34.0% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2024 08:17:00 AM
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.3% from the February seasonal bottom.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019.
Inventory was up 34.0% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 36.7%), and down 22/6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.1%).
Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of October 11th, inventory was at 732 thousand (7-day average), compared to 734 thousand the prior week.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Sunday, October 13, 2024
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2024 09:20:00 AM
Due to Rosh Hashana, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 October. ...The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
29 September through 5 October 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 65.6% (-3.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.25 (-4.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$102.44 (-7.7%)
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is near the peak for the fall business travel season, and then will decline during the holidays.
Saturday, October 12, 2024
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Homeowner Insurance Costs "Spike"
by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2024 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs "Spike", Especially in Florida
• House Prices to Income
• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of October 13, 2024
by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2024 08:11:00 AM
The key economic reports this week are September Retail Sales and Housing Starts.
For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.
Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open.
8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 2.4, down from 11.5.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, up from 258 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 3.0, up from 1.7.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September.This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.9%.
10:00 AM: The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 42, up from 41 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September. This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.
The consensus is for 1.350 million SAAR, down from 1.356 million SAAR.
