by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2024 10:38:00 AM

The BEA will release the advance estimate of Q3 GDP next week. The consensus estimate is GDP increased at a 3.0% real annual rate in Q3, the same rate as in Q2.

From BofA:

Our 3Q GDP tracking estimate was unchanged this week. We expect the advance 3Q GDP estimate to print at 3.0% q/q saar, unchanged from 2Q. ... Underlying demand in the US economy continues to impress as we expect final sales to grow by 3.2% q/q saar, up from 2.9% in 2Q. [Oct 25th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Today’s reading on core capital goods shipments was lower than our previous assumption; we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Oct 25th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 3.3 percent on October 25, down from 3.4 percent on October 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent to 2.7 percent. [Oct 25th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2024 08:22:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 19 October

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 October. ...

13-19 October 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 70.1% (+1.6)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$169.85 (+2.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$119.01 (+4.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is near the peak for the fall business travel season, and then will decline during the holidays.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2024 07:50:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for October). The consensus is for a reading of 69.0.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2024 05:23:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 28.7% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Oct. 19, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 28.7% above year-ago levels.

For the 50th consecutive week dating back to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year-over-year. This week’s growth was lower than last week’s, the fifth week of slowing growth, and the lowest annual change since April. Much of the inventory build up is due to more seller activity than buyer activity, but the number of active listings has stabilized over the last few weeks, suggesting buyer activity could be starting to keep up.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale-increased 4.7% this week compared to one year ago.

The number of new listings has bounced back from last week’s dip, which is partly influenced by Hurricane Milton, and has returned to its upward trend. However, recent fluctuations in mortgage rates may discourage sellers from listing their homes.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 50th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2024 02:33:00 PM

From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: September Sees Prepayments at Two-Year High, Slowly Rising Mortgage Delinquencies

• The national delinquency rate rose 14 basis points to 3.48% in September, up 4.3% from August and 5.7% year over year

• September marked the fourth consecutive year-over-year rise in mortgage delinquencies, the longest such stretch since early 2018 outside of the initial impact of the COVID pandemic

• A 5.9% bump brought serious delinquencies (90+ days past due but not yet in active foreclosure) to a 16-month high and delivered a second consecutive month of year-over-year increases

• 30-day delinquencies hit a three-month high and 60-days were at the highest since January 2021; foreclosure activity remained muted, with both starts and sales/completions down in September

• The number of loans in active foreclosure was up marginally (+0.4%) month over month but down 12.5% from this time last year and still 34% below pre-pandemic levels

• Prepayment activity rose to a level not seen since August 2022; a +2.5% increase from the month prior and up +43.2% from last September
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2024 10:54:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September

Brief excerpt:

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. The previous three months were revised down.
...
The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in September 2024 were up 6.3% from September 2023.

New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have increased year-over-year in 17 of the last 18 months.

Note that this is the opposite of Existing Home sales that have been down year-over-year for thirty-seven consecutive months!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2024 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down.

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.1 percent above the revised August rate of 709,000 and is 6.3 percent above the September 2023 estimate of 694,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in September to 7.6 months from 7.9 months in August.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 470,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate. "

Sales were above expectations of 710 thousand SAAR, however, sales for the three previous months were revised down. I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2024 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending October 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 238,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 236,250 to 236,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 238,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast. 

The recent increase was partially hurricane related.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2024 07:29:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 247 thousand initial claims, up from 241 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 710 thousand SAAR, down from 716 thousand in August.

• At 11:00 AM, Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2024 05:44:00 PM

From WardsAuto: October U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Forecast to Start Q4 with Small Gain (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

The fourth quarter is forecast to total 4.13 million units, 6.0% above year-ago’s 3.89 million, which was tamped down because of labor-related strikes at three automakers that pared inventory
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for October (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.9 million SAAR, would be up 0.8% from last month, and up 3.6% from a year ago.