by Calculated Risk on 11/10/2024 09:58:00 AM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Retreats 5% in October

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 5.3% in October to 197.2 (2000=100) from the revised September reading of 208.2. Over the month, commercial planning fell 6.7% and institutional planning declined 2.0%.

“In addition to data center planning normalizing, a moderate pullback in the number of planning projects for several other nonresidential sectors also contributed to the decline in the Dodge Momentum Index for October,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Regardless, owners and developers remain confident in next year’s market conditions and the planning queue remains poised to spur stronger construction activity in 2025, following deeper rate cuts by the Fed.”

Most commercial categories faced declines throughout October, aside from hotel planning – which continued to gain momentum. On the institutional side, education and public planning activity expanded, offset by weaker activity in healthcare, recreational and religious projects. This month, the DMI was 13% higher than in October of 2023. The commercial segment was up 18% from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was up 3% over the same period. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year has been substantial. If we remove all data center projects from January to October, commercial planning would be down 4% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be down 2%.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 197.2 in October, down from 208.2 the previous month.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025.  

Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q3 2024

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October First Year-over-year Sales Gain Since August 2021

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month"

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2024 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are October CPI and Retail Sales.

For manufacturing, October industrial production and the November New York Fed survey will be released this week.

----- Monday, November 11th -----
Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.

----- Tuesday, November 12th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

----- Wednesday, November 13th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.6% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.3% YoY.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Thursday, November 14th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 255 thousand initial claims, up from 221 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

3:00 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Economic Outlook, At Conversation with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Dallas, Texas

----- Friday, November 15th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released.

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5, up from -11.9.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.3%.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2024 07:02:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	759	935	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling but are still more than double the low of 302 in early June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of November 7th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is fairly low - only about 50% higher than the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2024 02:11:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 2 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 19 October. ...

27 October through 2 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 60.8% (+1.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.99 (+1.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$94.22 (+3.1%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and finishing the year strong!

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2024 11:35:00 AM

Fed Chair Powell, Nov 7, 2024:

"It's actually remarkable how strong the U.S. economy is performing. We're performing better than all of our global peers. Ultimately, if you look at the U.S. economy, its performance has been very good."

From BofA:

Next week, we will initiate our 4Q GDP tracker with the October retail sales print and Oct industrial production and Sep business inventories. [Current forecast 2.0%, Nov 8th]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.0% [Nov 5th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on November 7, up from 2.4 percent on November 5. [Nov 7th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2024 08:27:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q3 2024

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Third Quarter of 2024, Up on Annual Basis

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased slightly to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.92 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies increased in Q2. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year from 0.49 percent in Q3 2023 to 0.45 percent in Q3 2024 (red) and remains historically low.
...
We will see an increase in 30-day delinquencies in Q4 due to the hurricanes.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2024 08:12:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2024 04:01:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 26.6% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Nov. 2, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 26.6% above year-ago levels.

For the 52nd consecutive week, the number of listings for sale has grown year-over-year. Inventory has climbed annually for a full calendar year, due in part to slowing buyer activity. This week’s growth was lower than last week’s, the sixth week of slowing growth, and the lowest annual change since late March.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–climbed 4.6% this week compared to one year ago.

The number of new listings on the market picked up compared to the same week last year. The recent upward trajectory of mortgage rates could largely discourage sellers from listing their homes as roughly 84% of outstanding mortgages have a rate of 6% or lower. However, mortgage rates are expected to ease in the coming months, which could ‘unlock’ some eager buyers.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 52nd consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2024 02:00:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller.
emphasis added