by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	597	703	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling but are still almost double the low of 302 in early June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of November 21st:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is fairly low - only about 18% higher than the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 05:18:00 PM

From WardsAuto: November U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Improve on October’s Growth (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

November’s forecast SAAR of 16.2 million units is the highest since May 2021. With the month having an atypical fifth weekend, the extended timeframe means there is more upside than downside to November’s forecast – especially with retail volume already showing solid growth.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for November (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 16.2 million SAAR, would be up 1.0% from last month, and up 4.8% from a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 12:34:00 PM

From Goldman:

We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) but boosted our Q4 domestic final sales forecast by 0.1pp to +2.0%. Our Q3 past-quarter tracking estimate stands at +2.9% (vs. 2.8% originally reported, quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Nov 21st estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.6 percent on November 19, up from 2.5 percent on November 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential fixed investment growth increased from -1.2 percent to 0.1 percent. [Nov 19th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 10:18:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

Excerpt:

Towards the end of each year, I collect some housing forecasts for the following year - and also provide my own outlook. Several more forecast will be available in early December.
...
The table below shows several early forecasts for 2025:

A few points from these early forecasts:

1. Forecasters expect house prices to increase next year in the low-to-mid single digits.

2. Everyone expects multi-family starts to stay depressed in 2025.

3. Everyone expects both new and existing home sales to increase in 2025, although existing home sales are expected to remain in the low 4 million range.

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2024 08:11:00 AM

The new administration is talking about cutting the number of federal government employees.

This raises the question of how many people are employed by the Federal government?

The following data is from the BLS and does not include military personnel.

The first graph shows total government employment (Federal, State and Local).

Click on graph for larger image.

First, most government employees are local (police officers, fire department, etc), followed by state employees.  There are almost 15 million local government employees and 5.5 million state government employees. 

Approximately half of the state and local employees work in education (teachers!)

The Federal government has about 3.0 million employees.  Note that the spikes in Federal employment are for decennial Census.

The second graph shows total Federal employees, and Federal employees excluding postal workers since 1960.

Once again, the spikes are the decennial Census!

Currently there are just over 600 thousand postal workers, and just under 2.4 million other federal employees.

The Federal government has outsourced some functions to the private sector.

The third graph shows Federal employment as a percent of total employment.

Federal employment was around 4.3% of total employment in 1960 and is now down to 1.9%.

Just some numbers and graphs to keep in mind during the discussion of federal employment cuts.

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2024 09:13:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2024 05:25:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 29.2% YoY, but still down 21.1% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 25.9% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Nov. 16, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 25.9% above year-ago levels

For the 54th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. However, this week’s growth was smaller than last week’s, marking the eighth consecutive week of deceleration and the smallest annual increase since late March.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—climbed 3.5% this week compared with one year ago

The number of newly listed homes saw a slight uptick compared with the same week last year, offering a glimmer of hope for buyers seeking fresh inventory. However, the recent climb in mortgage rates might deter many potential sellers from entering the market, particularly those locked into lower rates who are hesitant to trade up to higher borrowing costs.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 54th consecutive week.  

However, inventory is still historically low.

New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2024 02:15:00 PM

From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Serious delinquencies hit 17-month high while foreclosure activity remains historically muted

• At 3.45% in October, the national delinquency rate was up 6% from the same time last year, marking five consecutive months of year-over-year increases

• While 30- & 60-day delinquencies decreased from September, seriously past due loans (90+ days) continued their slow rise, now up 7.3% from last year and at the highest level since May 2023

• Though both foreclosure starts (+12.2%) and completions (+10.1%) were up in October, both remain down from last year (-12.3% and -9.5%, respectively) and well below pre-pandemic levels

• Likewise, foreclosure inventory was up a modest +1K in the month, but there are 28K fewer loans in active foreclosure than there were at this same time last year

• Prepayment activity rose on easing interest rates to a level not seen in over two years (May 2022) and nearly double where it was last October
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2024 10:51:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

Excerpt:

As expected, existing home sales were up year-over-year for the first time since 2021. This was a combination of weak sales in October last year and lower mortgage rates in August and September when contracts were signed (Existing home sales are reported at closing).
...
The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but at housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales increased 2.9% year-over-year compared to October 2023. This was the first year-over-year increase since July 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2024 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Grew 3.4% in October; First Year-Over-Year Gain Since July 2021

Existing-home sales rose in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales improved in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales elevated in three regions but were unchanged in the Northeast.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – expanded 3.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in October. Year-over-year, sales progressed 2.9% (up from 3.85 million in October 2023).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of October was 1.37 million units, up 0.7% from September and 19.1% from one year ago (1.15 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.3 months in September but up from 3.6 months in October 2023.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in October (3.96 million SAAR) were up 3.4% from the previous month and were 2.9% above the October 2023 sales rate.  This was the first year-over-year increase since July 2021.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.37 million in October from 1.36 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 19.1% year-over-year (blue) in October compared to October 2023.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.2 months in October from 4.3 months the previous month.

The sales rate was above the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later.