by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2024 01:13:00 PM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Stalls in October

• On an annual basis, home prices rose by 3.4% in October and are projected to slow to 2.4% by the same time next year. On a monthly basis, home prices rose just 0.02% from September.

• Chicago beat Miami as the metro with the highest home price gain at 6.4%, compared with Miami’s 6.2%.

• New Jersey outpaced Rhode Island for annual home price growth, recording an 8.1% lift compared with Rhode Island’s 7.5% uptick. Both states reached new highs in October.
...
U.S. home price growth remained almost unchanged in October from the previous month, recording 3.4% year-over year-growth and a 0.02% increase from September. The stagnation highlights the fact that home price growth has remained relatively flat since this summer, only eking out gains in certain pockets of the country.
...
“Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in home buying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August. Still, as we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring home buying market. In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.”
emphasis added

This was the same YoY increase as reported for September.

This map is from the report.

Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in October. The state of Hawaii was the only state to post an annual home price decline. The states with the highest increases year over year were New Jersey (up by 8.1%) and Rhode Island (up by 7.5%).

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2024 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.3 million. The number of total separations was little changed at 5.3 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) increased, but layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October; the employment report this Friday will be for November.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in October to 7.74 million from 7.37 million in September.

The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 8% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2024 08:30:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500

A brief excerpt:

After the release of the FHFA house price index for September last week, the FHFA released the conforming loan limits for 2025.

From the FHFA: FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limit Values for 2025

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced the conforming loan limit values (CLLs) for mortgages acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) in 2025. In most of the United States, the 2025 CLL value for one-unit properties will be $806,500, an increase of $39,950 (or 5.2 percent) from 2024 ...

Note that there are different loan limits for various geographical areas. There are also different loan limits depending on the number of units (from 1 to 4 units). For example, next year the CLL is $806,500 for one-unit properties in low-cost areas. The four-unit limit is $1,551,250.

For high-cost areas like Los Angeles County, the CLL is $1,209,750 for one-unit properties (50% higher than the baseline CLL) and the four-unit limit is $2,326,875.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 06:50:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Little-Changed After Last Week's Improvement

The average lender is still able to offer top tier conventional 30yr fixed rates just under 7% for the 4th straight day. There were no major sources of inspiration today, but that will change as the week progresses. Friday's jobs report is especially significant. The same report has had the biggest impact of any economic report on multiple occasions in the past few months. [30 year fixed 6.91%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 01:55:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.45% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.7% in October, down from up 3.8% YoY in September.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ...

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 35 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 18 of the 35 cities with the largest declines are in Florida!

And 5 of the 35 cities on the list are in Texas.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 10:45:00 AM

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased:

Construction spending during October 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,174.0 billion, 0.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $2,164.7 billion. The October figure is 5.0 percent above the October 2023 estimate of $2,071.1 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending increased and public spending decreased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,676.4 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,664.7 billion. ...

In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $497.6 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised September estimate of $500.0 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential (red) spending is 4.7% below the peak in 2022.

Non-residential (blue) spending is 0.5% below the peak in June 2024.

Public construction spending is 0.5% below the peak in September 2024.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 6.4%. Non-residential spending is up 3.5% year-over-year. Public spending is up 4.5% year-over-year.

This was above consensus expectations and spending for the previous two months was revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.4% in November, up from 46.5% in October. The employment index was at 48.1%, up from 44.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 50.4%, up from 47.1%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.4% November 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the eighth consecutive month and the 24th time in the last 25 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4 percent in November, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent recorded in October. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 55th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage point higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 50.3 percent, down 4.5 percentage points compared to the reading of 54.8 percent in October. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage point compared to the 42.3 percent recorded in October. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 3.7 percentage points from October’s figure of 44.4 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in November.  This was above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.7% week-over-week.  Inventory is now 4.4% below the peak for the year (6 weeks ago).

Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 27.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 27.1%), and down 17.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Nov 29th, inventory was at 707 thousand (7-day average), compared to 719 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2024 01:18:00 AM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 1, 2024

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for November.  The consensus is for 47.5%, up from 46.5%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for October.  The consensus is for 0.2% increase in spending.

• All day, Light vehicle sales for November.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 9 and DOW futures are down 45 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $68.43 per barrel and Brent at $72.31 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $79 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.00 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.25 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.25 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

• New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.