by Calculated Risk on 2/17/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week.

Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.2% from the bottom five weeks ago in January.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 29.2% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 27.8%), and down 22.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.1%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Feb 14th, inventory was at 638 thousand (7-day average), compared to 632 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2025 06:31:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ...

2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 55.9% (-0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.03 (-2.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$87.22 (-2.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is a little lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next couple of months.

by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2025 09:09:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 27.5% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Feb. 8, 2025

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 27.5% above year-ago levels

For the 66th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. This week also marked the fifth straight week where the growth rate has increased, fueled by the entrance of many new listings on the market.

• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–increased 11.3%

Fresh inventory increased year over year for the fifth week in a row, as sellers trickled back into the market. We project home sales to increase in 2025 compared with 2024, which notched the lowest existing-home sales since 1996.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 66th consecutive week.  

New listings have jumped recently but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Q4 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

• Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

• Lawler: More Ruminations on the “Neutral” Rate of Interest

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 2/15/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are January Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, the February New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, February 17th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of Washington's Birthday.

----- Tuesday, February 18th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6.

10:00 AM: The February NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 47, unchanged from 47 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Wednesday, February 19th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for January.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.394 million SAAR, down from 1.499 million SAAR.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for January (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of Meeting of January 28-29, 2025

----- Thursday, February 20th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: The Philly Fed manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 25.4, down from 44.3.

----- Friday, February 21st -----
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for February).

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 07:01:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	922	983	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again - and at a minimum, I'll continue to post through the Winter.  

Weekly deaths had been increasing, and weekly deaths are almost triple the low of 314 in early June 2024.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of February 13th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has been moving sideways recently.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "High" according to the CDC.   

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 01:52:00 PM

From BofA:

Next week, we will initiate our 1Q GDP tracker ... [Feb 14th]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following this morning’s retail sales and industrial production reports, we lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.0% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales forecast by 0.1pp to +2.2%. We lowered our Q4 past quarter tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1% [Feb 14th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on February 14, down from 2.9 percent on February 7. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth fell from 2.8 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 4.9 percent. [Feb 14th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 10:49:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in December. Last year, the NAR reported sales in January 2024 at 4.00 million SAAR.

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to January 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the third look at local markets in January. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely this will be near the seasonal low for months-of-supply.

Months in red are areas that will likely see over 6 months of supply later this year.
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) increased 0.5 percent in January after moving up 1.0 percent in December. In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percentage point to total IP growth following the earlier resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output declined 0.1 percent in January, held down by a 5.2 percent decrease in the index for motor vehicles and parts. The index for mining fell 1.2 percent, while the index for utilities jumped 7.2 percent, as cold temperatures boosted the demand for heating. At 103.5 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in January was 2.0 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization stepped up to 77.8 percent, a rate that is 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.8% is 1.8% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was above consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 103.5. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 2/14/2025 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 percent from January 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $723.9 billion, down 0.9 percent from the previous month, and up 4.2 percent from January 2024. ... The November 2024 to December 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.4 percent to up 0.7 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was down 1.0% in January.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in January were well below expectations, however sales in November and December were revised up, combined.