by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2025 12:56:00 PM
Monday, February 24, 2025
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY
From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content). Brief excerpt:
Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the trough caused by the pandemic and supply-chain issues - suggest the industry overall wants to maintain profit margins but also has a high level of uncertainty about 2025 and does not want to be in a position of having to make sudden, bigger cuts if the market weakens at some point this year.
emphasis added
This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for February (Red).
On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.9 million SAAR, would be up 1.9% from last month, and up 1.5% from a year ago.
The Normal Seasonal Change for Median House Prices
by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2025 10:51:00 AM
Earlier, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter on January existing home sales, NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January, I mentioned that the median price typically bottoms seasonally in January (contracts signed mostly in November and December) and peaks in June (April and May contracts).
Below is a table of the seasonal changes from January to June (all median prices Not Seasonally Adjusted, NSA).
Note: In 2020, prices increased late into the year and peaked in October, but prices peaked in June for all the other years.
Change in Median House Price from January to June | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
January to June | 13.7% | 14.4% | 10.6% | 20.8% | 16.8% | 12.8% |
The NAR reported the median price was $396,900 in January 2025, down 7.0% from $426,900 in June 2024.
Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2025 08:11:00 AM
Sunday, February 23, 2025
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2025 06:17:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025
• Housing Starts and Recessions
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data.
• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 13 and DOW futures are up 67 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $70.40 per barrel and Brent at $74.43 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $78, and Brent was at $84 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.11 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.26 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.15 year-over-year.
Housing Starts and Recessions
by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2025 11:04:00 AM
This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession.
Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE:
“On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak ..Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting. And policy changes will clearly have a negative impact on homebuilders. Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch.
“.. Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts, and the only question is timing.”
New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. Then new home sales and single-family starts turned down in 2021, but that was partly due to the huge surge in sales during the pandemic. In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates.
Saturday, February 22, 2025
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low
by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2025 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January
• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January
• The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates
• California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets
• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of February 23, 2025
by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices.
For manufacturing, the February Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for December 2024. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
This graph shows the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes, through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 4.5% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December, up from 4.3% in November.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963.
The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate) The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.3% annualized in Q4, unchanged from the advance estimate of 2.3%.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.8% increase in durable goods orders.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in the index.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for February.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.6% YoY.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February.
Friday, February 21, 2025
February 21st COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Declining
by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 07:03:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
COVID Metrics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
Deaths per Week | 859 | 953 | ≤3501 | |
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. |
This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.
Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%
by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 02:06:00 PM
From BofA:
We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 21st]From Goldman:
emphasis added
[W]e lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1%. We left our Q4 past quarter tracking estimate unchanged at +2.1%. [Feb 19th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
[T]he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on February 19, unchanged from February 14 after rounding. [Feb 19th estimate]
Newsletter: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January
by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 11:05:00 AM
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January
Excerpt:
Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years.There is much more in the article.
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)
The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.
Sales increased 2.0% year-over-year compared to January 2024.