by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2007 10:52:00 PM

From the WSJ: 'Option ARM' Delinquencies Bleed Into Profitable Prime Mortgages

Subprime mortgages aren't the only challenge facing Countrywide Financial Corp. ... Some loans classified as prime when they were originated are now going bad at a rapid pace.

These ... option ARMs ... typically have low introductory rates and allow minimal payments in the early years of the mortgage. Multiple payment choices include a minimum payment that covers none of the principal and only part of the interest normally due. If borrowers choose that minimum payment, their loan balances grow -- a phenomenon known as "negative amortization."

Click on graph for larger image. This chart from Credit Suisse via the IMF shows the heavy subprime resets in 2008, plus it shows the reset problems with Alt-A and Option ARM loans in later years.

... An analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by UBS AG shows that 3.55% of option ARMs originated by Countrywide in 2006 and packaged into securities sold to investors are at least 60 days past due. That compares with an average option-ARM delinquency rate of 2.56% for the industry as a whole and is the highest of six companies analyzed by UBS.
...
The deteriorating performance of option ARMs is evidence that lax underwriting that led to problems in subprime loans is showing up in the prime market, where defaults typically are minimal. Challenges could grow, as from 2009 to 2011, monthly payments on some $229 billion of option ARMs will be adjusted to include market-rate interest and principal, according to Moody's Economy.com.
...
It now appears that many borrowers who moved into option ARMs were attracted by the low payments and may have been staving off other financial problems. More than 80% of borrowers who are current on these loans make only the minimum payment, according to UBS. emphasis added

These Option ARMs, especially the low doc, minimal downpayment Option ARMs, are ticking time bombs.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2007 07:34:00 PM

From Reuters: Moody's slashes Axon SIV as capital NAV plummets

Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday slashed its credit ratings on Axon Financial Funding, a structured investment vehicle (SIV), after its capital net asset value plummeted.

Moody's said in a statement it has cut Axon's commercial paper to Not Prime from Prime-1. It has cut its medium term notes to Ba3, three notches below investment-grade status, from triple-A. And it has cut its mezzanine capital notes to Ca, 10 notches below investment-grade, from A1.
...
Moody's said Axon's capital net asset value had fallen to 39 percent on Oct. 18 from 96 percent on July 27.

OUCH.

More from Bloomberg: SIV Defaults May Prompt Others to Close Their Doors

Axon Financial Funding Ltd. LLC, a SIV with $9.8 billion of debt, had its credit ratings cut by Moody's today after its net asset value fell by more than half. The SIV, set up by New York- based hedge fund TPG-Axon Capital Management LP, had the rankings of its medium-term notes lowered by 12 steps to Ba3, three levels below investment grade, from Aaa, the highest-possible rating.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2007 05:33:00 PM

From the WSJ: Centex Posts $644 Million Loss Amid Continued Housing Woes

Centex Corp. reported a fiscal second-quarter loss, as the company recorded $983 million in impairments and other land charges, continuing a bloody season for U.S. home builders.
...
Revenue fell 21% to $2.22 billion.
...
"Market conditions were extremely challenging during the quarter, reflecting the serious disruptions in the credit and mortgage markets that occurred during that period," said Chairman and Chief Executive Tim Eller in a prepared statement late Tuesday. "In response, we meaningfully reduced prices in order to improve affordability for our home buyers."

The positive news is that Centex reduced their inventory "of unsold homes by 28% to 4,708" and their "cancellation rate decreased to 35.4%".

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2007 02:04:00 PM

From AP: Countrywide to Modify $16B in Loans

Countrywide Financial Corp ... said Tuesday it will begin calling borrowers to offer refinancing or modifications on $16 billion in loans whose interest rate is set to adjust by the end of 2008. ...
...
The Calabasas, Calif.-based company said it would reach out to borrowers who are current on their loans but are facing an imminent rate reset to discuss options. Countrywide said it would refinance about $10 billion in loans and modify another $4 billion.

It also plans to contact borrowers of some $2.2 billion who are late on their loans and having trouble paying because of a recent rate reset.

In total Countrywide's plan would reach out to about 82,000 borrowers for some kind of relief.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2007 12:54:00 PM

From the WSJ: UPS Posts 3.7% Rise in Profit Amid International Growth

The world's largest package delivery company expects domestic package volume in the fourth quarter will grow at its slowest rate for the period in four years, amid weakened consumer spending in the U.S. ...

"Retail sales growth is expected to remain weak and is a wild card going into the holiday shipping season," Chief Financial Officer Scott Davis said during a conference call with analysts. "It remains to be seen how quickly the U.S. economy will return to long-term growth trends," he added, noting that UPS sees economic growth of about 2% this year.

Also from the WSJ: Burlington Northern Earnings Rise 8.4% Despite High Fuel Costs

"Although we have concerns near-term about the economy, housing markets, high fuel prices and general consumer softness, we continue to be optimistic about the long-term future of BNSF," [Chairman and Chief Executive Matthew K. Rose] said.
...
In July, the railroad said it expected about a 3% decline in volume in the third quarter, mainly due to weak intermodal volume, which involves transferring freight from one method of transport to another. Tuesday, the company said volume fell 4.7%. A recession in freight volumes has been affecting the rail industry for nearly a year, partly because of weakness in the housing and automotive markets.

The UPS numbers are weak, but not too bad - the Burlington Northern volumes look recessionary.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2007 12:42:00 PM

From the Chicago Tribune: Chicago builder, Neumann Homes, closes branches, prepares bankruptcy filing (hat tip Lyle)

Neumann Homes, one of Chicago's largest homebuilders, announced on Monday that it intends to file for bankruptcy.
...
The company, ranked among the top 10 in Chicago, also builds in Wisconsin and Colorado. Company CEO Kenneth P. Neumann said in the statement that "significant downturn in the Detroit, Chicago and Denver housing markets resulted in this situation. ... Even after the significant help we have received from our lenders this year, the company can no longer weather this storm."

Homebuilders bankruptcies will probably become common (someone will have to start a home builder implode-o-meter), but also note the comment "... significant help we have received from our lenders". Eventually lenders will start giving up on homebuilders, and this means more builder bankruptcies, and more write downs for the lenders.

by Tanta on 10/23/2007 10:01:00 AM

I guess we can only hope that the credit crunch cramps the style of identity thieves. From the Wall Street Journal:

Last month, Waldell Thomas, a maintenance worker at Montego Apartments in Atlanta, made a discovery inside the complex's Dumpster: a cache of 40 boxes of loan files containing Social Security numbers, credit reports and other data on customers of Ameriquest Mortgage Co.

Next time you talk to a mortgage broker, you might want to ask about their file retention/destruction policies. As a general rule, "I keep them in cardboard boxes in my basement until I take them to the dumpster of some condo project" is not the right answer.

The worst part of this is that there do not seem to be criminal penalties for file dumping in Georgia. I guess it's not a crime until the dumpster-divers find your credit report.

by Tanta on 10/23/2007 09:19:00 AM

Thanks to Anonymous, our attention is directed to BankUnited's visit to the confessional. Somehow loan loss reserves went from $8-10MM in pre-release to $19.1MM in the official release. It's the sort of thing that can happen to anyone, you know.

Because we were talking about Option ARMs yesterday, I thought I'd share this bit:

As of Sept. 30, 2007, BankUnited’s option-ARM balances totaled $7.6 billion, which represented 70% of the residential loan portfolio and 60% of the total loan portfolio. For the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2007, the growth in negative amortization was $48 million, compared to $46.4 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2007. Of the $7.6 billion in option-ARM balances, $6.5 billion had negative amortization of $270 million, or 3.55%, of the option-ARM portfolio.

If I'm reading that correctly, it means that 87% of the OA portfolio, by balance, is negatively amortizing, and the total amount of negative amortization is 4.1%. Without the weighted average age of the loans, there is no way to calculate an annual rate of negative amortization. I would be surprised if the average age is more than 24 months, which would produce a rate of around 2.00% annual average balance growth.

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2007 09:20:00 PM

From the WSJ: To Keep Homes, More People Bet On Bankruptcy

As the nation's housing slump continued, consumer bankruptcy filings last month were up nearly 23% from a year earlier -- representing nearly 69,000 people, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute ... Overall, consumer bankruptcy filings were up 44.76% during the first nine months of this year.

In some areas where the real-estate boom was especially heated, the increase in filings has been even sharper -- especially for a type of bankruptcy that allows homeowners to halt foreclosures on their homes.
...
In recent months ... more homeowners are filing for bankruptcy under Chapter 13, which staves off foreclosure proceedings while the homeowner works out a plan to pay ...

In California, one of the nation's hottest markets during the recent real-estate boom, the number of nonbusiness Chapter 13 petitions in the second quarter more than doubled from a year earlier ... Over the same period, such filings increased nearly 40% in the northern district of Illinois, which includes Chicago, and 70% in Massachusetts.

"It's a mess," says William McLeod, a Boston bankruptcy attorney who says he is receiving twice as many calls from debtors as he did a year ago. "This is fed right now by real estate, and what's been this mortgage frenzy in the last several years."

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2007 03:38:00 PM

I just spoke with a friend in San Diego - they were evacuated at 2AM this morning. Apparently at least four homes on their block have burned, including the house right next door to them (they saw it on the news).

MarketWatch has an audio from Herb Greenberg describing his evacuation. Here is his blog:

This is remarkable. They’ve just evacuated a major part of San Diego: Everywhere East of the I-5, North of the 56 and South of Lake Hodges. If you know San Diego, this is, well, half the area. My area, Carmel Valley, is included. This is JUST east of Del Mar. Total track home city, but also includes Rancho Santa Fe.

It is really smoky at my house in Orange County, but it is safe.