by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2024 10:51:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month"

Brief excerpt:

One of the key metrics to watch for mortgage stress is early-stage delinquencies. These are borrowers that are delinquent within 6 months of origination. This was one of the obvious warning signs during the housing bubble.

There has been a steady increase in early-stage delinquencies for VA loans.

• Early-stage delinquencies – borrowers already past due six months after origination – have been gradually rising as well, most notably among VA originations

• Overall, 1.7% of 2024 vintage originations have been delinquent six months after origination, the highest share for any vintage since 2008 – outside of pandemic-era payment shocks

Note that national mortgage performance is being impacted by the hurricanes.

There is much more in the newsletter.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2024 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was unchanged week-over-week.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 29.8% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 30.8%), and down 19.4% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 20.7%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is more than half closed.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of Nov 1st, inventory was at 736 thousand (7-day average), compared to 736 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2024 08:19:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 3, 2024

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 8 and DOW futures are down 168 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $69.49 per barrel and Brent at $71.10 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $81, and Brent was at $88 - so WTI oil prices are down about 14% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.06 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.40 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.34 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2024 09:59:00 AM

Most analysts expect the FOMC will cut the federal funds rate at the meeting this week by 25bp lowering the target range to 4 1/2 to 4 3/4 percent.   

Currently almost all market participants are expecting a 25bp cut this week.  Market participants are also pricing in another 25bp cut in December.

From BofA:

We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bp in November. ... Chair Powell’s message in the press conference should remain optimistic, particularly given the recent robust data flow. Powell is likely to emphasize data dependence once again, and provide little forward guidance about the policy path.
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We continue to expect the FOMC to lower the fed funds rate by 25bp at the November and December meetings.

Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. For review, here are the September projections. 

Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and somewhat inflation lower than expected (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4).  

The FOMC will look through the employment report released Friday because of the impact of hurricanes and the Boeing strike on job gains in October.

The BEA's second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real growth at 2.8% annualized, following 3.0% annualized real growth in Q2, and 1.6% in Q1.  Current estimates for Q4 GDP are around 2.6%.  That would put real growth in 2024, Q4 over Q4, at 2.5% - well above the top end of the September FOMC projections.  

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2024	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2024	1.9 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.2	1.9 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.1
June 2024	1.9 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.2	1.8 to 2.1	---

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.1% in October.  This is below the low end of the September projections.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2024	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2024	4.3 to 4.4	4.2 to 4.5	4.0 to 4.4	4.0 to 4.4
June 2024	3.9 to 4.2	3.9 to 4.3	3.9 to 4.3	---

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of September 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY). This is below the low end of the September projections.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2024	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2024	2.2 to 2.4	2.1 to 2.2	2.0	2.0
June 2024	2.5 to 2.9	2.2 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.1	---

PCE core inflation increased 2.7 percent YoY in September. This is in the range of FOMC projections for Q4.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2024	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2024	2.6 to 2.7	2.1 to 2.3	2.0	2.0
June 2024	2.8 to 3.0	2.3 to 2.4	2.0 to 2.1	---

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2024 07:11:00 AM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	905	985	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are triple the low of 302 in early June but are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of October 31st:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is declining - only about 50% higher than the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year

• Lawler: Mortgage Rates Have Surged Since the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates Last Month

• A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2024 08:11:00 AM

The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates.

----- Monday, November 4th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, November 5th -----
All day: U.S. Election

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $73.5 billion in September, from $70.4 billion in August.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a decrease to 53.3 from 54.9.

----- Wednesday, November 6th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, November 7th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 thousand initial claims, up from 216 thousand last week.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Friday, November 8th -----
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2024 09:10:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the August Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 75% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 11% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is 3% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms.  As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $433,000 today adjusted for inflation (44% increase).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 1.5% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 1.6% below the recent peak in 2022. Both indexes increased in August in real terms.

It has now been 27 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2024 09:07:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.

Earlier: October Employment Report: 12 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate

Seasonal Retail Hiring

Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

Retailers hired 125 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October.  This was lower than last year and suggests slightly less real retail sales this holiday season as last year.

This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a loss of 6.4 thousand retail jobs in October.

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in October to 83.5% from 83.8% in September.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.6% from 80.9% the previous month.

Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% YoY in October.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 4.56 million from 4.62 million in September.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.7% from 7.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.61 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, essentialy unchanged from 1.63 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through October 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 46 consecutive months, putting the current streak in a tie for 3rd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).  It appears this streak will survive the annual benchmark revision (that will revise down job growth).

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
	Year Ended	Streak, Months
1	2019	100
2	1990	48
3 tie	2007	46
3 tie	20241	46
5	1979	45
6 tie	1943	33
6 tie	1986	33
6 tie	2000	33
9	1967	29
10	1995	25
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio declined, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%.

This report was impacted by strikes (especially Boeing) and the hurricanes.  This makes interpreting this report difficult.

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2024 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care and government. Temporary help services lost jobs. Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and the change for September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 12 thousand in October.  Private payrolls decreased by 28 thousand, and public payrolls increased 40 thousand.

Payrolls for August and September were revised down 112 thousand, combined.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 2.17 million jobs.  Employment was up solidly year-over-year (Although the annual benchmark revision will lower the year-over-year change).

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.6% in October, from 62.7% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.0% from 60.2% in September (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% in October from 4.1% in September.

This was below consensus expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined.  

This report was impacted by strikes and hurricanes.

I'll have more later ...