by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 07:17:00 PM
Monday, February 10, 2025
Tuesday: Fed Chair Powell's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Microscopically Lower to Start New Week
Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 2024. Top tier 30yr fixed rates have operated inside a 0.13% range since then and a narrower 0.08% range for the past 2 weeks. ... on Wednesday, volatility potential increases significantly with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the first of the two big inflation readings for any given month. Inflation is always a consideration for interest rates, but it's particularly important at the moment as investors wait for evidence that progress toward the 2% has resumed after potentially stalling at just over 3% last summer. [30 year fixed 7.01%]Tuesday:
emphasis added
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.
• At 10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
By Request: Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms
by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 03:01:00 PM
Note: I've received a number of requests to post this again at the conclusion of President Biden's term. So here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms. We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker.
Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, however the participation rate was increasing in the '80s (younger population and women joining the labor force), and the participation rate is generally declining now. But these graphs give an overview of employment changes.
The first graph shows the change in private sector payroll jobs from when each president took office until the end of their term(s). Presidents Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Trump only served one term.
Mr. G.W. Bush (red) took office following the bursting of the stock market bubble and left during the bursting of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and great recession. There was also a significant recession in the early '80s right after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.
There was a recession towards the end of President G.H.W. Bush (light purple) term, and Mr. Clinton (light blue) served for eight years without a recession. There was a pandemic related recession in 2020.
First, here is a table for private sector jobs. The previous top two private sector terms were both under President Clinton.
Term | Private Sector Jobs Added (000s) |
---|---|
Biden | 14,3451 |
Clinton 1 | 10,875 |
Clinton 2 | 10,104 |
Obama 2 | 9,924 |
Reagan 2 | 9,351 |
Carter | 9,039 |
Reagan 1 | 5,363 |
Obama 1 | 1,889 |
GHW Bush | 1,507 |
GW Bush 2 | 453 |
GW Bush 1 | -822 |
Trump | -2,178 |
1End of Term |
The first graph is for private employment only.
Private sector employment increased by 9,039,000 under President Carter (dashed green), by 14,714,000 under President Reagan (dark red), 1,507,000 under President G.H.W. Bush (light purple), 20,979,000 under President Clinton (light blue), lost 369,000 under President G.W. Bush, and gained 11,813,000 under President Obama (dark dashed blue). During Trump's first term (Orange), the economy lost 2,178,000 private sector jobs.
The public sector grew during Mr. Carter's term (up 1,304,000), during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs). However, the public sector declined significantly while Mr. Obama was in office (down 263,000 jobs). During Trump's term, the economy lost 537,000 public sector jobs (mostly teachers during the pandemic).
Term | Public Sector Jobs Added (000s) |
---|---|
Biden | 1,8111 |
Reagan 2 | 1,438 |
Carter | 1,304 |
Clinton 2 | 1,242 |
GHW Bush | 1,127 |
GW Bush 1 | 900 |
GW Bush 2 | 844 |
Clinton 1 | 692 |
Obama 2 | 447 |
Reagan 1 | -24 |
Trump | -537 |
Obama 1 | -710 |
1End of Term |
Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025
by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 12:19:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2025
A brief excerpt:
This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market.There is much more in the article.
I always focus first on inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale! I’m watching months-of-supply closely.
...
New home inventory, as a percentage of total inventory, is still very high. The following graph uses Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) existing home inventory from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) and new home inventory from the Census Bureau (only completed and under construction inventory).
It took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 25.1% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2% in December 2022.
The percent of new homes of total inventory should continue to decline as existing home inventory increases. However, the percent of new home inventory has increased seasonally over the Winter as existing homes are withdrawn from the market.
Housing Feb 10th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.8% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 08:11:00 AM
Sunday Night Futures
by Calculated Risk on 2/10/2025 12:01:00 AM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025
Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 18 and DOW futures are up 88 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $71.00 per barrel and Brent at $74.66 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices are down about 8% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.13 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.18 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.05 year-over-year.
Sunday, February 09, 2025
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increased 6% in January
by Calculated Risk on 2/09/2025 08:19:00 AM
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Grows 6% in January
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, grew 5.6% in January to 225.7 (2000=100) from the revised December reading of 213.6. Over the month, commercial planning increased 4.2% while institutional planning improved 8.7%.
“Nonresidential planning activity saw diversified growth in January, with every vertical experiencing positive momentum,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Uncertainty over fiscal policies, ongoing labor shortages and elevated construction costs will continue to be headwinds to the construction sector. However, further monetary easing and the sizable number of projects in planning should support construction spending in the back half of the year.”
On the commercial side, data center, traditional office building, and warehouse planning led this month’s gains. Education and healthcare planning, especially on the hospital side, supported the institutional portion. In January, the DMI was up 26% when compared to year-ago levels. The commercial segment was up 37% from January 2024, while the institutional segment was up 9% over the same period. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year remains substantial. If we remove all data center projects between 2023 and 2025, commercial planning would be up 13% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be up 11%.
...
The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
emphasis added
This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 225.7 in January, up from 213.6 the previous month.
According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025.
Saturday, February 08, 2025
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024
by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2025 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
Click on graph for larger image.
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024
• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December
• Lawler: Revisions Almost Eliminate Household/Establishment Survey Employment Growth Gap
• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year
• ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011”
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025
by Calculated Risk on 2/08/2025 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales.
For manufacturing, the January Industrial Production report will be released this week.
Fed Chair Powell presents the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
No major economic releases scheduled.
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January.
10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.2% YoY.
10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 224 thousand from 219 thousand last week.
8:30 AM ET: The Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.
11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q4 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 77.7%.
Friday, February 07, 2025
February 7th COVID Update: COVID in Wastewater Increasing
by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2025 07:20:00 PM
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.
COVID Metrics | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
Deaths per Week🚩 | 940 | 819 | ≤3501 | |
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met. |
This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in January; Up 0.8% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 2/07/2025 04:15:00 PM
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increased in January
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) moved 0.4% higher in January compared to December, causing the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) to increase to 205.6, a gain of 0.8% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index muted the movement for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values rose faster than seasonally adjusted values. The non-adjusted price in January increased by 0.6% compared to December, moving the unadjusted average price up 1.1% year over year.
emphasis added
This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.