by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 07:16:00 PM

The Kansas City Fed doesn't publicly release the dates of the symposium ahead of time. I'll post the schedule when it is available, but here are a few tentative details:

• Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Thursday, August 30th through Saturday, Sept 1st.

• Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks on Friday, August 31st at 10 AM ET.

• ECB President Mario Draghi speaks on Saturday, September 1st at 10 AM. 

Note: Markets will be closed the following Monday for Labor Day on September 3rd.

Here are a few other more dates:

• Political conventions: Republicans August 27–30 in Tampa, and Democrats September 3–6 in Charlotte. The election is on November 6th. 

• September 3rd, EU Finance Minsters Meeting.

• September 6th, Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt with a press conference to follow. ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to discuss how the ECB will help lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.

• September 12th at 6 AM ET, Germany's Constitutional Court is expected to rule on the new eurozone bailout fund and fiscal treaty.

• September 12th and 13th: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets. After this meeting the FOMC will release updated Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference. Major economic releases before the FOMC meeting: August 29th, second estimate of Q2 GDP, and September 7th, the August employment report. PCE price index for July will be released on August 30th.

• Mid-September: Euro-zone finance ministers' informal meetings in Nicosia.

• October 4th, Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank in Ljubljana with a press conference to follow.

• October 8th, Finance Ministers meeting in Luxembourg.

• European Council meeting, October 18th and 19th in Brussels.

• October 23rd and 24th: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 04:38:00 PM

The BLS reported this morning: "The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 1.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 225.568 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index decreased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment."

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is an explanation ...

The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W¹ for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U, and not seasonally adjusted.

Since the highest Q3 average was last year (2011), at 223.233, we only have to compare to last year. Note: The last few years we needed to compare to Q3 2008 since that was the previous highest Q3 average.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Currently CPI-W is above the Q3 2011 average. If the current level holds, COLA would be around 1.0% for next year (the current 225.568 divided by the Q3 2011 level of 223.233). With the recent increases in oil and gasoline prices, CPI-W might increase some in August and September, and COLA might be closer to 1.5%.

This is early - we need the data for August and September - but it appears COLA will be slightly positive next year.

Contribution and Benefit Base

The law prohibits an increase in the contribution and benefit base if COLA is not greater than zero. However if the there is even a small increase in COLA, the contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index.

From Social Security: Cost-of-Living Adjustment Must Be Greater Than Zero

... ... any amount that is directly dependent for its value on the COLA would not increase. For example, the maximum Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payment amounts would not increase if there were no COLA.

... if there were no COLA, section 230(a) of the Social Security Act prohibits an increase in the contribution and benefit base (Social Security's maximum taxable earnings), which normally increases with increases in the national average wage index. Similarly, the retirement test exempt amounts would not increase ...

This is based on a one year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2011 yet, but wages probably didn't increase much from 2010. If wages increased the same as last year, and COLA is positive (seems likely right now), then the contribution base next year will be increased to around $112,500 from the current $110,100.

Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

⁽¹⁾ CPI-W usually tracks CPI-U (headline number) pretty well. From the BLS:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) ... which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households, groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self- employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not in the labor force.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 02:38:00 PM

Two articles on shadow inventory ...

Yesterday morning from Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Shadow Inventory: It’s Not as Scary as It Looks

While the shadow is very large, one often-overlooked fact is that the shadow isn’t nearly as large as it was two years ago.
...
Barclays Capital estimates that at the end of May there were around 1.8 million mortgages in the foreclosure process and another 1.45 million where borrowers have missed at least three payments. That puts the total number of properties that could be repossessed and resold by banks at around 3.25 million mortgages.
...
But it is down from a peak of 4.25 million in February 2010.
...
[Housing analyst Ivy Zelman] published an in-depth research note earlier with the title: “Shining a bright light on the shadow: Why what’s lurking doesn’t concern us.” In it, she explains how it’s more important to focus on the pace at which foreclosures are being liquidated, and not the absolute number.

“Just like the Wizard of Oz, shadow inventory is not very intimidating once you pull back the curtain,” the report said.

And today from Timiraos at the WSJ: Shadow Inventory: Monitor Banks’ Speed, Not Just Volume

“If you don’t understand the shadow inventory, it’s very ominous and concerning,” says Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates. “But if you understand the flows and how it is brought to market” it looks less intimidating, she says.
...
Nationally, Barclays estimates that the number of bank-owned properties will decline a bit more this year, before accelerating next year to a peak of around 575,000 in early 2014.
...
Meanwhile, as the shadow inventory has dropped over the past year and as banks and states have slowed down the process, demand has picked up. That’s especially the case for foreclosed properties at low price points ...

I discussed some of this yesterday in House Prices and a Foreclosure Supply Shock

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 12:10:00 PM

Note: This is the last inflation report before the September FOMC meeting (the August report will be released September 14th and the FOMC meeting is Sept 12th and 13th).

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.5% annualized rate) in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% (1.3% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers was virtually flat at 0.0% (0.6% annualized rate) in July. The CPI less food and energy increased 0.1% (1.1% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for July here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.0%, and core CPI rose 2.1%. Core PCE is for June and increased 1.8% year-over-year.

These measures suggest inflation is now at the Fed's target of 2% on a year-over-year basis and it appears the inflation rate is slowing. On a monthly basis (annualized), two of these measure were well below the Fed's target; trimmed-mean CPI was at 1.3%, Core CPI at 1.1% - although median CPI was at 2.5% and and Core PCE for June was at 2.5%. Based on initial data - and comparing to the increase in August 2011 - it is very likely that the August report will show a further decline in the year-over-year inflation rate.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) increased 2 points in August to 37. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Continues To Improve in August

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes improved for a fourth consecutive month in August with a two-point gain to 37 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This gain builds on a six-point increase in July and brings the index to its highest level since February of 2007.

“From the builder’s perspective, current sales conditions, sales prospects for the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers are all better than they have been in more than five years,” said Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “While there is still much room for improvement, we have come a long way from the depths of the recession and the outlook appears to be brightening.”
...
Every HMI component posted gains in August. The components gauging current sales conditions and traffic of prospective buyers each rose three points, to 39 and 31, respectively, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months inched up one point to 44. All were at their highest levels in more than five years.

Regionally, builder confidence rose nine points to 42 in the Midwest and two points to 35 in the South, but declined nine points to 25 in the Northeast and three points to 40 in the West in August. For the August HMI release, NAHB is introducing an alternative trend comparison of regional HMIs by also showing a three-month moving average of each region’s index. The current three-month moving averages show a two-point decline to 29 in the Northeast, a five-point gain to 35 in the Midwest, a three-point gain to 32 in the South and a three-point gain to 38 in the West.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the August release for the HMI and the June data for starts (July housing starts will be released tomorrow). A reading of 37 was above the consensus.

Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.6 percent in July after having risen 0.1 percent in both May and June. Revisions to the rates of change for recent months left the level of the index in June little changed from its previous estimate. Manufacturing output rose 0.5 percent in July, the same rate of increase as was recorded for June. In July, the output of mines increased 1.2 percent, and the output of utilities rose 1.3 percent. At 98.0 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in July was 4.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.4 percentage point to 79.3 percent, a rate 1.0 percentage point below its long-run (1972--2011) average.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 12.5 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 79.3% is still 1.0 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2010 and below the pre-recession levels of 80.6% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased in July to 98.0. This is 17.4% above the recession low, but still 2.7% below the pre-recession peak.

The consensus was for Industrial Production to increase 0.5% in July, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.2%. The increase in IP and Capacity Utilization was above expectations.

All current manufacturing graphs

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 08:30:00 AM

• From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The general business conditions index slipped below zero for the first time since October 2011, falling thirteen points to -5.9. At -5.5, the new orders index was below zero for a second consecutive month, and the shipments index fell six points to 4.1.
...
The index for number of employees inched lower, but remained positive at 16.5, suggesting a moderate increase in employment levels, and the average workweek index rose to 3.5.
...
Indexes for the six-month outlook were generally positive but lower than in July, indicating that respondents expected business conditions to improve little in the months ahead.

This was the first regional manufacturing survey released for August. The general business conditions index was worse than expected and new orders were down.

The Philly Fed index was especially weak in June and July, and the August index will be released tomorrow.

• From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.
...
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in July, ending a streak of four consecutive 0.2 percent increases.

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was below the consensus forecast of a 0.2% increase for CPI and a 0.2% increase in core CPI and makes QE3 more likely in September.

by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2012 06:00:00 AM

From Realtor.com: July 2012 Real Estate Data

The total US for-sale inventory of single family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops (SFH/CTHCOPS) remains at historic lows across the country, with 1.866 million units for sale in July, down -19.25% compared to a year ago and -39.80% below its peak of 3.10 million units in September, 2007 when Realtor.com began monitoring these markets.

The median age of the inventory of for sale listings was 88 days in July 2012, up slightly from June (84), but -9.27% below the median age one year ago (July 2011). While the median age of the inventory is highly seasonal, the year-over-year decline is consistent with other data showing a significant improvement in market conditions compared to one year ago.

For sale inventories of SFH/CTHCOPS in July declined on an annual basis in all but two of the 146 MSAs monitored by Realtor.com, with for-sale inventory dropping -20% or more in 67 of the 146 markets covered. Eight out of 10 MSAs with the largest year-over-year declines in their for-sale inventories in July 2012 are in California.

Only two areas experienced a year-over-year increase in their for-sale inventories— Shreveport, LA (+23.06%), and Philadelphia, PA (+3.04%).

The NAR is scheduled to report July existing home sales and inventory next week on Wednesday, August 22nd. The key number in the NAR report will be inventory, and inventory will be down sharply again year-over-year in July.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2012 09:15:00 PM

First on Europe, from the WSJ: Euro Zone Economy Shrinks, Darkening Outlook

Economic activity in the 17-country currency bloc fell at an annualized rate of 0.7% in the second quarter after stagnating in the first three months of 2012, according to data from the European Union's statistics arm.

And on Greece from the Financial Times: Greece seeks two-year austerity extension

The extension plan calls for a slower adjustment with cuts spread over four years until 2016 ... Greece would need additional funding of €20bn
Excerpt with permission

Europe will be a hot topic in September and October (a few key dates here).

• On Wednesday, at 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for July will be released. The consensus is for CPI to increase 0.2% in July and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for August will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 7.0, down from 7.4 in July (above zero is expansion).

• At 9:15 AM, theThe Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July. The consensus is for Industrial Production to increase 0.5% in July, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.2%.

• At 10:00 AM, The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 35, unchanged from 35 in July.

For the August economic prediction contest:

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2012 06:54:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland Home Sales Up Again From 2011; Median Price Nears 4-Yr High

Southern California home sales rose above the year-ago level for the seventh consecutive month in July despite continued declines in low-end distress sales. Increased activity in move-up and high-end submarkets also contributed to a significant rise in the region’s median sale price, which neared a four-year high, a real estate information service reported.

“Even adjusting for changes in market mix, there’s growing evidence prices have crept up in areas where more demand has met a shrinking number of homes for sale. But we’re approaching the peak of the traditional spring-summer home-buying season. Whether these trends hold into the fall and winter isn’t clear. If they do, then logically the number of homes on the market would eventually rise to meet the demand. More owners will be interested in selling, knowing their homes are likely to fetch a higher price, and more people will shift from a negative to at least a slightly positive equity position, enabling them to sell. Home builders could rev up operations and lenders could push more distressed properties onto the market sooner. It would tame any price appreciation,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

In July, a total of 20,588 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties. That was down 6.7 percent from 22,075 in June, and up 13.8 percent from 18,090 in July 2011.

Distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and short sales – made up 39.7 percent of last month’s resale market. That was the lowest level since the figure was 36.0 percent in January 2008.

The percent of distressed sales is still very high, but this is the lowest level since January 2008 - something we are seeing in most areas.

The median price is being impacted by the mix, with fewer low end distressed sales pushing up the median. This is why I focus on the repeat sales indexes.

The NAR is scheduled to report July existing home sales and inventory next week on Wednesday, August 22nd.

A couple earlier posts on housing:
• House Prices and a Foreclosure Supply Shock
• Lawler: Table of Short Sales and Foreclosures for Selected Markets

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2012 03:18:00 PM

CR Note: Yesterday I posted some distressed sales data for Sacramento. I'm following the Sacramento market to see the change in mix over time (short sales, foreclosure, conventional). Economist Tom Lawler has been digging up similar data, and he sent me the table below for several more distressed areas. For all of these areas, the share of distressed sales is down from July 2011 - and for the areas that break out short sales, the share of short sales has increased (except Minneapolis) and the share of foreclosure sales are down. In most areas, short sales are higher than foreclosures, and for some areas like Phoenix, Reno and Las Vegas, short sales are now double the rate of foreclosures.

From Lawler:

Below is a table showing the share of home sales by realtors in various markets identified in local MLS as being “distressed,” as reported by local realtor associations or MLS.

As the table indicates, the distressed sales share of total sales last month was down compared to last July in all of the above markets, in some (but not all) cases by significant amount. And for those areas breaking out “distressed” sales by short sales or foreclosures, in most (but not all) cases the short sales share was higher, and the foreclosure sales share significantly lower, than a year ago.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share
	12-July	11-July	12-July	11-July	12-July	11-July
Las Vegas	40.0%	20.2%	20.7%	50.2%	60.7%	70.4%
Reno	38.0%	28.0%	15.0%	37.0%	53.0%	65.0%
Phoenix	29.5%	23.6%	14.6%	43.1%	44.1%	66.7%
Sacramento	32.0%	22.3%	22.4%	39.0%	54.4%	61.3%
Minneapolis	9.3%	11.0%	24.8%	34.4%	34.1%	45.4%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	11.3%	10.2%	8.7%	15.1%	20.0%	25.2%
Hampton Roads VA					29.1%	30.3%
Northeast Florida					39.0%	44.1%

[The second table shows] the YOY growth in total home sales and in “non-distressed” home sales for each of the these areas, as reported by local realtor associations/MLS.

While home sales for these markets combined this July were actually down a bit from last July, “non-distressed” home sales were up by almost 23%.

CR Note: In the post Home Sales Reports: What Matters, I noted: "When we look at sales for existing homes, the focus should be on the composition between conventional and distressed." Even if existing home sales declined in July, the composition appears to be shifting towards more conventional sales - a positive.

	YOY % Growth, Home Sales (July 2012)
	Total	Non-Distressed
Las Vegas	-11.5%	17.6%
Reno	-3.1%	30.0%
Phoenix	-14.8%	43.1%
Sacramento	4.7%	23.4%
Minneapolis	14.6%	38.3%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)	4.7%	12.0%
Hampton Roads VA	20.1%	22.1%
Northeast Florida	1.3%	10.5%
Total of Above Markets	-0.9%	22.8%

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2012 12:25:00 PM

Those making the argument for further house price declines usually start with “shadow inventory”. Although there is no formal definition of “shadow inventory” it usually includes 1) some properties with homeowners who are current on their mortgages, but have negative equity in their homes, and 2) properties not listed for sale, but where the homeowner is seriously delinquent on their mortgage or already in the foreclosure process.

This can lead to some pretty scary numbers being bandied about. As an example, CoreLogic recently reported that “11.4 million, or 23.7 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the first quarter of 2012”. And LPS reported 1.6 million loans were 90+ days delinquent at the end of June, and another 2.1 million are in the foreclosure process.

These numbers suggest a coming “flood” of foreclosures to those arguing house prices will fall further. I think this is incorrect.

If we look at negative equity, it is a serious issue for many homeowners, but it seems unlikely they will default en masse. Recent homebuyers who have negative equity are probably less than 10% underwater. And homeowners with significant negative equity probably bought in the 2004 through 2006 period; and they’ve been paying their mortgage for 6 to 8 years – so it is unlikely they will just default without some unfortunate event (divorce, death, disease).

Probably the biggest impact on the housing market is that people with negative equity can’t sell, and this restricts supply (the opposite of the “shadow inventory” argument). For more on this, see: Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries has been discussing this: The Connection Between Negative Equity, Inventory Shortage and Increasing Home Values: Why the Bottom Won’t Be as Boring as We Expected

And I expect with the recent increase in house prices that the number of reported homeowners with negative equity will be down sharply in Q2. The HARP refinance program will help too.

A more immediate concern is the 3.7 million homeowners currently 90+ days delinquent or in the foreclosure process. Many of these properties will eventually be a distressed sale, either a foreclosure or short sale, although some will receive loan modifications. It is important to remember that some of these homes are already listed for sale (so they are included in the “visible inventory”), and there has been a significant shift by lenders from foreclosures to short sales (short sales have less of an impact on prices than foreclosures).

But here is the key: Although forecasting house prices is very complex, we can make some simplifying assumptions and think in terms of supply and demand with foreclosures being a supply shock (increased supply). It is important to remember that national prices are an aggregate of many local prices (although there are national impacts, housing markets are local). And housing prices are more complex than say commodity prices (as an example, house prices tend to be stick downwards).

Imagine a multi-year supply shock with a bell curve shape. The supply shock shifts the supply curve to the right relative to the height of the bell curve. Prices will bottom when the supply shock is at the peak, NOT when the supply shock is over.

The supply shock from foreclosures probably peaked in late 2008, with a second smaller peak in 2010. Prices didn’t bottom in 2008 because 1) prices are sticky downwards (so the bottom happens after the peak of the supply shock) and 2) fundamentals such as price-to-income and price-to-rent were still out of line.

Now fundamentals are close to normal, and any supply shock will probably be smaller than the 2008 or 2010 peaks. And this analysis assumed demand was stable. Actually there was a demand shock too (less demand) due to tighter lending, and buyer psychology (potential buyers were afraid that prices would fall further). There were few investors in 2008 when the supply shock hit – just a few individual and small group investors buying REOs. Now there are large well capitalized groups looking to buy. Of course lending standards are still tight, but as the recent Senior Loan Officer showed, demand is picking up.

The bottom line is house prices have probably bottomed, and the concern about more distressed sales coming is real – but will probably not push house prices to new post-bubble lows.

Note: For reference, back in April 2005 I argued that prices were way out of line and that speculation was the key, and that speculation could be modeled as storage, see: Housing: Speculation is the Key

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2012 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.8% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1% from July 2011. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $403.9 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent from the previous month and 4.1 percent above July 2011. ... The May to June 2012 percent change was revised from -0.5 percent to -0.7%.

Ex-autos, retail sales increased 0.8% in July.

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for June were revised down to a 0.7% decrease (from 0.5% decrease).

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 21.9% from the bottom, and now 6.6% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

The second graph shows the same data, but just since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 19.1% from the bottom, and now 7.0% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.0% on a YoY basis (4.1% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.8% in July.

This was above the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.3% increase in July, and above (edit) the consensus for a 0.4% increase ex-auto.

This mostly just reversed the sharp decline in June.
All current retail sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2012 07:54:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): Small-Business Optimism Continues to Decline in July

Dipping for a second consecutive month, after ending several months of slow growth, the Small Business Optimism Index gave up 0.2 points, falling to 91.2. ... The Index has oscillated between 86.5 (July 2009) and 94.5 (February 2012) since the recession officially ended in June 2009. Prior to 2008, the Index averaged 100, well above the current reading.
...
While "poor sales" has been eclipsed by other concerns as the top business problem, it still remains the No.1 issue for 20 percent of owners surveyed (down from 23 percent).

Note: These survey results are based on a small sample and the commentary is getting more and more political (calling the 2000s the "best economy in history" is absurd), so I'm going to discontinue posting this survey.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 91.2 in July from 91.4 in June.

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy. This index remains low, and once again, lack of demand is a huge problem for small businesses.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 08:26:00 PM

Retail sales were down 0.5% in June, and that led some forecasters to argue that the US economy was contracting. My view is the economy is still growing sluggishly. For July, expectations are for an increase in retail sales. Here are the economic releases scheduled for Tuesday:

• On Tuesday, at 7:30 AM ET, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 91.3 in July from 91.4 in June.

• At 8:30 AM, the Census Bureau will release Retail Sales for July. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in July, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.4%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for July will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales report for June (Business inventories) will be released. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in inventories.

For the August economic prediction contest:

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 04:31:00 PM

I've been following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of house sales in a distressed area over time (conventional, REOs, and short sales). The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

So far there has been a shift from REO to short sales, and the percentage of distressed sales has been declining year-over-year. This data would suggest some improvement although there are still more distressed sales to come.

In July 2012, 54.4% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was up slightly from 54.2% last month, and down from 61.3% in July 2011. The percentage of REOs fell to 22.4%, the lowest since the Sacramento Realtors started tracking the data and the percentage of short sales increased to 32.0%, the highest percentage recorded.

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales. There is a seasonal pattern for conventional sales (stronger in the spring and summer), and distressed sales happen all year - so the percentage of distressed sales decreases every summer and the increases in the fall and winter.

There has been an increase in conventional sales this year, and there were more short sales than REO sales in July for the fourth consecutive month. And the gap between short sales and REO sales is increasing.

Total sales were up 4.7% compared to June 2011, and conventional sales were up 23% year-over-year. Active Listing Inventory for single family homes declined 64.2% from last July and listings were down another 6.9% in July (from June).

Cash buyers accounted for 31.1% of all sales (frequently investors), and median prices were up 0.6% from last July.

This seems to be moving in the right direction, although the market is still in distress.

We are seeing a similar pattern in other distressed areas to more conventional sales, and a shift from REO to short sales,.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 01:24:00 PM

Last week the MBA released the results of their Q2 National Delinquency Survey. One of the key points was the difference in the number of mortgage in the foreclosure process between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states.

The first graph below (repeat) is from the MBA and shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state. Posted with permission.

The second graph shows all stages of delinquency (and in-foreclosure) by states, sorted by the percent seriously delinquent (90+ days plus in-foreclosure).

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The top states are Florida (13.70% in foreclosure down from 14.31% in Q1), New Jersey (7.65% down from 8.37%), Illinois (7.11% down from 7.46%), New York (6.47% up from 6.17%) and Nevada (the only non-judicial state in the top 13 at 6.09% down from 6.47%).

As Jay Brinkmann noted, California (3.07% down from 3.29%) and Arizona (3.24% down from 3.57%) are now a percentage point below the national average.

The second graph includes all delinquent loans (sorted by percent seriously delinquent).

Florida and New Jersey have the highest percentage of serious delinquent loans, followed by Nevada, New York, Illinois, Maine and Maryland. Nevada still leads with the highest percent of loans 90+ days delinquent.

Previous high delinquency states like California and Arizona are now well down the list.

Comment: It continues to bother me that several southern states always have an elevated percentage of mortgage loans 30+ day delinquent (Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana all have a large percentage light blue). Most of these borrowers always seem to catch up - they just make their payments late. That means lenders generate plenty of late fees in these states. This might be something for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to investigate.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 09:21:00 AM

On Sunday I put together a short list of key dates in Europe in September and October when European policymakers return from vacation.

Here are a couple more stories this morning ...

From Reuters: Italy Public Debt Hits Record High, Deficit Also up

Public debt at the end of June rose 6.6 billion euros to 1.973 billion euros, the Bank of Italy said ... The economy contracted 0.7 percent in the second quarter and gross domestic product was down 2.5 percent from a year earlier. ...
Italy's one-year borrowing costs rose marginally at auction on Monday, with uncertainty over how and when the European Central Bank might move to ease both the country's and the region's mounting debt problems tempering appetite for risk.

From the Athens News: GDP sinks 6.2% in second quarter

The country’s economy contracted 6.2 percent in the second quarter ... Currently in its fifth consecutive year, the economic downturn has driven unemployment to record highs, with nearly one in four unemployed and more pain expected ahead. ...
The jobless rate has already climbed to 23.1 percent, with nearly 55 percent of those aged 15-24 out of work.

Europe will be in the headlines again soon and policymakers will be busy in September and October.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2012 09:36:00 PM

This will be a busy week for economic data, but there are no releases scheduled for Monday.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight, with the Nikkei up slightly and the Shanghai Composite down slightly.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P future are down slightly, and the DOW futures up slightly.

Oil prices are moving up again with WTI futures are at $93.30 and Brent is at $113.40 per barrel. Using the calculator at Econbrowser suggests national gasoline prices at about $3.67 per gallon.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 10th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 12th

Four more questions for the August economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2012 04:43:00 PM

A few miscelleneous dates (just making some notes).

First, for Europe it looks like September and October will be very busy (after the Europeans get back from vacation). Greece will be back in the headlines in October according to the WSJ: Troika to Spend 'All of September' in Greece -EU Official

"The mission in September will stay the whole month in order to report to the October Eurogroup," the official said, referring to the ministers' meeting scheduled to take place in Luxembourg on Oct. 8.

Here are a few key European dates:

• September 6th, Governing Council meeting of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt with a press conference to follow. ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to discuss how the ECB will help lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.

• September 12th, Germany's Constitutional Court is expected to rule on the new eurozone bailout fund and fiscal treaty.

• Mid-September: Euro-zone finance ministers' informal meetings in Nicosia.

• October 8th, Finance Ministers meeting in Luxembourg.

• European Council meeting, October 18th and 19th in Brussels.

And in the US:

• (Not key) Political conventions: Republicans August 27–30 in Tampa, and Democrats September 3–6 in Charlotte. The election is on November 6th.

• September 12th and 13th: the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets. After this meeting the FOMC will release updated Summary of Economic Projections, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference. Major economic releases before the FOMC meeting: August 29th, second estimate of Q2 GDP, and September 7th, the August employment report.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 10th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 12th