by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2021 12:31:00 PM

From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 77.1 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of December 6

The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 77.1 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by December 6 in its survey of 11.8 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.

This is a 1.7 percentage point increase from the share who paid rent through December 6, 2020 and compares to 83.2 percent that had been paid by December 6, 2019. This data encompasses a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.

The NMHC Rent Payment Tracker metric provides insight into changes in resident rent payment behavior over the course of each month, and, as the dataset ages, between months. While the tracker is intended to serve as an indicator of resident financial challenges, it is also intended to track the recovery as well, including the effectiveness of government stimulus and subsidies.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the NMHC Rent Payment Tracker shows the percent of household making full or partial rent payments by the 6th of the month compared to 2019 and to the first COVID year. 

Although payments are down from 2019, rent payments are up from last year.

This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.

The second graph shows full month payments through November compared to the same month the prior year.

For November, rent payments were down compared to November 2019 and 2020.

CR Note: There are some timing issues month-to-month.

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2021 10:05:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings increased to 11.0 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires were little changed at 6.5 million and total separations edged down to 5.9 million. Within separations, the quits rate decreased to 2.8 percent following a series high in September. The layoffs and discharges rate was unchanged at 0.9 percent.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for October, the most recent employment report was for November.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The huge spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 are labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in October to 11.033 million from 10.602 million in September.

The number of job openings (yellow) were up 61% year-over-year. 

Quits were up 24% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 3, 2021. The previous week’s results included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday.

... The Refinance Index increased 9 percent from the previous week and was 37 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 28 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates declined for the first time in a month, prompting a pickup in refinancing, with government refinances increasing more than 20 percent over the week. While the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and 15- year fixed mortgage rate both declined only one basis point, the FHA rate fell 7 basis points, driving the surge in government refinances. Borrowers are continuing to act on these opportunities, but if rates trend higher as MBA is forecasting, the window of opportunity to refinance will continue to get smaller,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market was slower last week, with applications falling after four consecutive increases. Activity is still close to the highest level since March 2021, which is a positive sign as the year comes to an end. Purchase activity continues to be constrained by a lack of inventory, combined with rapid rates of home-price appreciation and mortgage rates higher than in 2020.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) decreased to 3.30 percent from 3.31 percent, with points decreasing to 0.39 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With relatively low rates, the index remains slightly elevated, but down sharply from last year.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 8% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2021 07:01:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

And on COVID:

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	60.1%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	199.7	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	117,179	80,266	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	51,742	46,659	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	1,117	807	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2021 03:06:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Declines In November

The Dodge Momentum Index fell 4% in November to 171.7 (2000=100) — down from the revised October reading of 178.1. The Momentum Index, issued by Dodge Construction Network, is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In November, commercial planning fell 8% while institutional planning moved 5% higher.

The value of nonresidential building projects continues to move in a sawtooth pattern, alternating between a month of gains followed by a loss. Since the pandemic began, nonresidential building projects entering planning have been more volatile than in past cycles, likely driven by increased challenges from higher prices and lack of labor.

Despite these issues and a lack of underlying demand for some building types such as offices and hotels, the Momentum Index remains near a 14-year high. Compared to November 2020, the Momentum Index was 44% higher in November 2021. The commercial planning component was 45% higher, and institutional was 41% higher.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 171.7 in November, down from 178.1 in October.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggested a decline in Commercial Real Estate construction through most of 2021, but a pickup towards the end of the year, and growth in 2022.

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2021 10:51:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

Excerpt:

Denver, Las Vegas, Northwest (Seattle), and San Diego

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

From October to November, the market saw a staggering 33.41 percent decrease in month-end active inventory, dropping to 2,248. Throughout the entire Denver Metro area, there are currently only 1,444 single-family detached properties and 804 attached properties to buy.

Over the past five years, month-end active inventory dropped between 23.36 percent in 2016 and 27.92 percent in 2019. Theoretically, if inventory stayed the course and dropped 25 percent this year, the market would end the year at 1,686 active properties leading into 2022, which is drastically lower than the end of 2020 and would lead to the most competitive year yet. With 2,248 active listings on the market and that number expected to go down by the end of the month, expectations are set that 2022 will be a wild and competitive ride.
emphasis added 

Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 27.2% in November MoM from October, and down 36.3% YoY.

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these four markets were down 33% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn’t indicating a slowing market.

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2021 08:39:00 AM

From the Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.1 billion in October, down $14.3 billion from $81.4 billion in September, revised.

October exports were $223.6 billion, $16.8 billion more than September exports. October imports were $290.7 billion, $2.5 billion more than September imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Both exports and imports increased in October.

Exports are up 18% compared to October 2020; imports are up 22% compared to October 2020.

Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19, and have now bounced back (imports more than exports),

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, imports and exports of petroleum products are close to zero.

The trade deficit with China increased to $31.4 billion in October, from $30.0 billion in October 2020.

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2021 08:00:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth at a Record 18% in October, CoreLogic Reports

CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for October 2021.

U.S. annual home price growth remained strong at 18% in October, the highest recorded in the 45-year history of the index. Nonetheless, monthly price growth has slowed from its April peak and signals a moderation in price growth that the CoreLogic HPI Forecast projects will continue to slow in coming months.

Despite affordability challenges, a recent CoreLogic consumer survey shows that over half of respondents across every age cohort said that owning a home has always been a goal of theirs — further supporting the outlook that consumer desire for homeownership remains.

“New household formation, investor purchases and pandemic-related factors driving demand for the limited supply of available for-sale homes continues to propel the upward spiral of U.S. home prices,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “However, we expect home price growth to moderate over the near term as many buyers take a break for the holidays.”
...
Nationally, home prices increased 18% in October 2021, compared to October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.3% compared to September 2021.
...
Home price gains are projected to slow to a 2.5% increase by October 2022 as affordability and economic concerns deter some potential buyers and additional for-sale inventory becomes available.

"Single-family detached houses remain the preferred home for buyers during the pandemic,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This is reflected in the 19.5% annual price rise for detached houses, which marks another record-high for the CoreLogic Home Price Index.”
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2021 07:17:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Started Flat, But Moved Higher in The Afternoon

Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow, sideways range since October. During that time, the average 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved by more than an eighth of a percent in either direction. Today was no exception.
...
These so-called mid-day reprices can happen in either direction. It didn't look like we would see any today based on market movement in the first 90 minutes. After that, bond began to deteriorate, ultimately forcing lenders to issue negative reprices. Keep in mind that we're dealing with very small adjustments in the bigger picture. The point is that rates are now slightly higher than they were on Friday afternoon. [30 year fixed 3.22%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:00 AM ET, Corelogic House Price index for October.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $67.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $80.9 billion in September.

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2021 03:09:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 471,700,443.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	60.0%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	199.3	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	103,823	87,603	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	49,176	46,003	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	1,154	733	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  Note: COVID will probably stay endemic (at least for some time).

KUDOS to the residents of the 5 states that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 74.0%, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maine, and Massachusetts at 72.2%.

KUDOS also to the residents of the 16 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: New York at 69.2%, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, Virginia, New Hampshire, Oregon, District of Columbia, New Mexico, Colorado, California, Minnesota, Illinois, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, and Wisconsin at 60.2%.

The following 19 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Pennsylvania at 59.3%, Nebraska, Iowa, Utah, Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Arizona, Nevada, South Dakota, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Kentucky, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri and Indiana at 51.0%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Tennessee at 49.8%, Arkansas at 49.8%, Georgia at 49.4%, Louisiana at 49.2%, North Dakota at 49.2%, and West Virginia at 49.2%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2021 02:54:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: As Forbearance Ends

Excerpt:

An analysis from Black Knight today, in their monthly mortgage monitor, indicates most borrowers are successfully leaving forbearance. Out of the 7.7 million borrowers that entered COVID related forbearance, only a small fraction are in foreclosure or delinquent (and not in active loss mitigation). Here is a chart from Black Knight:
...
In a previous post, Forbearance Will Not Lead to a Huge Wave of Foreclosures, I presented some data and argued “that most homeowners in forbearance have sufficient equity in their homes, and there will not be a huge wave of foreclosures like following the housing bubble.”

So far, the data suggests the vast majority of borrowers that were in forbearance will return to current status. I’ll continue to track the data over the next few months, but this isn’t a huge concern.

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2021 12:24:00 PM

Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for September today. According to Black Knight, 3.74% of mortgage were delinquent in September, down from 3.91% of mortgages in August, and down from 6.44% in September 2020. Black Knight also reported that 0.26% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.33% a year ago.

This gives a total of 4.07% delinquent or in foreclosure.

Press Release: Tappable Equity Surges $254 Billion in Q3 to All-Time High of $9.4 Trillion as Cash-Out Refinance Borrowers Pull Largest Quarterly Volume of Equity in 14 Years

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. (NYSE:BKI) released its latest Mortgage Monitor Report, based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage, real estate and public records datasets. Though the rate of home price appreciation has begun to slow in recent months, the explosive growth of the last few years has driven tappable equity – the amount available for a mortgage holder to access while retaining at least a 20% equity stake in their home – to one new height after another. According to Black Knight Data & Analytics President Ben Graboske, a nearly-quarter-trillion dollar increase in tappable equity over the third quarter has resulted in not only yet another record high, but also the lowest total market leverage on record.

“Home price growth in the third quarter – while less than half that of Q2’s history-making rate – added more than $250 billion to Americans’ already record levels of tappable equity,” said Graboske. “The aggregate total of $9.4 trillion is up an astonishing 32% from the same time last year and nearly 90% higher than the pre-Great Recession peak in 2006. As prices have surged over the past 18 months, the average mortgage-holder’s equity stake has risen by $53,000. That works out to nearly $178,000 available in tappable equity to the average homeowner with a mortgage before hitting a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio of 80%. What’s more, in the third quarter, homeowners tapped into their equity at the highest rate in more than 14 years as cash-outs made up 54% of all refinances.
...
This month’s Mortgage Monitor also examines the impact of rising prices and interest rates on home affordability, finding that the monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) to purchase the average-priced home with 20% down has jumped by nearly 25% since the start of the year. Factoring in incomes as well as prices across the country, it now requires 22.4% of the median income to purchase the average-priced home with 20% down and a 30-year mortgage. This is the largest share of income required for a home purchase since late 2018, when interest rates were near 5%, but still far below the 34%+ payment-to-income ratio reached in 2006.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph on delinquencies from Black Knight:

• The national delinquency rate, at 3.74%, is just over a half percentage point above the all-time low, set in January 2020

• Serious delinquencies fell by more than 10% (-127K) in October as the first wave of forbearance entrants returned to making mortgage payments

• Further improvement is expected in coming weeks as most borrowers exiting forbearance plans are still working through loss mitigation options with their lenders

• There are still nearly 700K more seriously delinquent mortgages (including those in active forbearance plans) than there were prior to the pandemic

And on the current status of loans that have exited forbearance:

• More than 750K borrowers left forbearance plans over the past 45 days, and while the dust continues to settle on their post-forbearance performance, early trends are like other recent exit months

• Trends are also becoming clearer among earlier forbearance exits, with fewer than 15% of borrowers who left plans in May remaining either delinquent (8%) or in post-forbearance loss mitigation (5%), a share that falls below 10% among those exiting before the end of April

• Among borrowers who left plans from September through November, only 7% are no longer in loss mitigation and remain delinquent, but 38% of such exits – and as many as 53% of those who exited in early November – remain in loss mitigation, as servicers and borrowers work through available options

• Given the large volume of exit activity over the past 45 days, all eyes will be on the success rate of those loss mitigation efforts in coming weeks

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2021 10:17:00 AM

Tracking existing home inventory is very important this year and in 2022.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of December 3rd, inventory was at 350 thousand (7-day average), compared to 481 thousand for the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 27.1%.  Inventory is down 6.5% from last week.

Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 58.0% from 834 thousand.  A week ago, inventory was at 375 thousand, and was down 24.9% YoY.   

Seasonally, inventory bottomed in April (usually inventory bottoms in January or February). Inventory was about 14% above the record low in early April.

Inventory peaked for the year in early September, when inventory was at 437 thousand (the peak for the year), so inventory is currently off about 19.9% from the peak for the year.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.  

by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2021 08:17:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of December 5th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Blue) and 2021 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

The 7-day average is down 15.2% from the same day in 2019 (84.8% of 2019).  (Dashed line)

Air travel had been off about 20% relative to 2019 for the last four months (with some ups and downs) - but picked up recently, especially over the Thanksgiving holiday week.

----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----
The second graph shows the 7-day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.

IMPORTANT: OpenTable notes: "we’ve updated the data including downloadable dataset from January 1, 2021 onward to compare seated diners from 2021 to 2019, as opposed to year over year." Thanks!

Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:

This data is updated through December 4, 2021.

This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."

Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.

Dining picked up for the Labor Day weekend but declined after the holiday - and is mostly moving sideways.  The 7-day average for the US is unchanged compared to 2019.

----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).  

Blue is 2020 and Red is 2021.  

The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 2nd.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Movie ticket sales were at $123 million last week, down about 36% from the median for the week. 

----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

This data is through November 27th. The occupancy rate was up 5.0% compared to the same week in 2019. This was the first week this year that was up compared to the same week in 2019.

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The occupancy rate will now decline seasonally into the new year.

----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.

Blue is for 2020.  Red is for 2021.

As of November 26th, gasoline supplied was down 2.6% compared to the same week in 2019.

There have been ten weeks this year that gasoline supplied was up compared to the same week in 2019 - so consumption is running close to 2019 levels now.

----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.

There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.

This data is through December 4th 

for the United States and several selected cities.

The graph is the running 7-day average to remove the impact of weekends.

IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.

According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7-day average for the US is at 108% of the January 2020 level. 

New York City is doing well by this metric, but subway usage in NYC is down sharply (next graph).

----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider. 

This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).

Manhattan is at about 41% of normal.

This data is through Friday, December 3rd.

He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".

by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2021 09:01:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 5, 2021

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are up 24 and DOW futures are up 260 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $66.26 per barrel and Brent at $69.88 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $46, and Brent was at $49 - so WTI oil prices are up 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.35 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.14 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.11 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2021 08:47:00 AM

A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now closer to normal (second graph below).
4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 (currently Chief Economist at Indeed) "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data"

Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too (from April 2010).  I still use the seasonal factor (I think it is better than using the NSA data).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through September 2021). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bubble, however the recent price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust.   

The swings in the seasonal factors have decreased, and the seasonal factors has been moving back towards more normal levels.

Note that the recent price surge hasn't distorted the seasonal factors.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2021 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Rents Still Increasing Sharply Rent increases slowing seasonally

• Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in September And a look at "Affordability"

• Conforming Loan Limit Increases to $647,200 High-Cost Areas increase to $970,800

• Case-Shiller National Index up 19.5% Year-over-year in September Index for Conforming Loan Limit Increases 18.04% YoY

• 2022 Housing Forecasts: Second Look Optimism on New Home Sales in 2022

This is usually published several times a week, and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The blog will continue as always!

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/  Currently all content is available for free - and some will always be free - but please subscribe!.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are November CPI and the October trade deficit.

----- Monday, December 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, December 7th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $67.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $80.9 billion in September.

8:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for October.

----- Wednesday, December 8th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 10.438 million from 10.629 million in August.

----- Thursday, December 9th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 228 thousand initial claims, up from 222 thousand last week.

12:00 PM: Q3 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, December 10th -----
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in CPI, and a 0.5% increase in core CPI.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for December).

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2021 04:00:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 466,348,132.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	59.7%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	198.2	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	96,425	87,986	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	48,610	44,689	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	975	893	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  Note: COVID will probably stay endemic (at least for some time).

KUDOS to the residents of the 5 states that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 73.2%, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maine, and Massachusetts at 71.6%.

KUDOS also to the residents of the 16 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: New York at 68.8%, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, Virginia, New Hampshire, Oregon, District of Columbia, New Mexico, Colorado, California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Delaware, Florida, and Hawaii at 61.4%.

The following 19 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Wisconsin at 59.8%, Nebraska, Iowa, Utah, Michigan, Texas, Kansas, Arizona, Nevada, South Dakota, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, Kentucky, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri and Indiana at 50.8%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Georgia at 49.8%, Tennessee at 49.7%, Arkansas at 49.6%, Louisiana at 49.0% and North Dakota at 49.0%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2021 01:20:00 PM

This data is as of November 30th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearance Plan Total Drops Below the Million Mark

Daily tracking data through December 1 shows the number of active forbearance plan totals dropping below 1 million for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, the number of active forbearance plans fell by 23,000 (-2.3%) this week, led by a 14,000 (-3.9%) drop in FHA/VA loans. Both GSE (-7K/-2%) and PLS/portfolio (-2K/-.6%) plan volumes also improved.

As of November 30, 994,000 mortgage holders (1.9%) remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, including 1.1% of GSE, 2.9% of FHA/VA and 2.5% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

Overall, the number of forbearance plans is down by 215,000 (-18%) from the same time last month, with the potential for additional improvements as we progress through December. After seeing starts jump before Thanksgiving, they fell to a pandemic low this week. This week’s low was likely due to the shorter holiday week.
emphasis added