by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2022 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Question #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?

• Question #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?

• Question #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?

• Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in October And a look at "Affordability"

• Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October FHFA: "annual trends slowing over the last four consecutive months"

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November No Signs of Slowing; Inventory down Sharply

• Question #10 for 2022: Will inventory increase as the pandemic subsides, or will inventory decrease further in 2022?

This is usually published several times a week, and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The blog will continue as always!

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/  Most content is available for free, but please subscribe!.

by Calculated Risk on 1/01/2022 08:11:00 AM

Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2022.

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the December ISM manufacturing and services indexes, December vehicle sales, the November trade deficit, and November Job Openings.

----- Monday, January 3rd -----
8:00 AM ET: Corelogic House Price index for November.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, January 4th -----
10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for October from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in October to 11.033 million from 10.602 million in September.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 60.2, down from 61.1 in November.

All day: Light vehicle sales for December. Sales were at 12.86 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  Wards Auto is projecting sales of 12.7 million SAAR in December.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

----- Wednesday, January 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 413,000, down from 534,000 jobs added in November.

----- Thursday, January 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  Initial claims were 198 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $70.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $67.1 billion in October.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for December.

----- Friday, January 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   There were 120 thousand jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%.  The consensus is for 400 thousand jobs added in December, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.1%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 20 months after the onset, is now significantly better than the worst of the "Great Recession"

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2021 05:15:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Highest Rates in a Month, But Just Barely

Mortgage rates began the week in decent shape, but moved higher somewhat abruptly yesterday. Context is important though. The smallest increment of adjustment for mortgages is typically 0.125%, and we haven't seen a move that big since early November. In fact, the overall range in 30yr fixed rates hasn't even been 0.125% during that time!

In other words, we're only able to say "highest rates in a month" because they finally trickled to just slightly higher levels. On that note, we might as well prepare for the next technicality. Specifically, if things get just a bit worse, we'll soon be able to say "highest rates in 9 months," even though they won't be too terribly different from today's.

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) since 2010.  

The 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 3.27% yesterday, up from 3.26% on Wednesday.  This is still historically very low.

If rates rise to 3.30% that will be highest since March 2021.  And 3.46% would be the highest since rates spiked briefly at the beginning of the pandemic.

Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2021 12:23:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #7 for 2022: How much will Residential investment change in 2022? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2022?

A brief excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2022. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.
...
Most analysts are looking for new home sales to increase in 2022. For example, the NAHB expects new home sales to increase to 840 thousand in 2022, and Fannie Mae expects 897 thousand, and the MBA is forecasting 922 thousand in 2022.

And for housing starts, Fannie Mae is forecasting starts will be mostly unchanged at 1.6 million, and the NAHB is forecasting a decline to 1.55 million.

My guess is starts will be down low-to-mid single digits year-over-year in 2022. New home sales could pick up solidly if existing home inventory stays low, supply issues are resolved, and mortgage rates stay low, but my guess is new home sales will be mostly unchanged year-over-year.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/31/2021 08:33:00 AM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below is a table showing quarterly home sales based on CoreLogic’s property records database for “non-investors” and for “investors” based on size of investors. For fun I also included the YOY % change in the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index., As a reminder, here is how CoreLogic defines an investor purchase:

Using CoreLogic’s public records data, we define an investor as an entity (individual or corporate) who retained three or more properties simultaneously within the past 10 years or has a corporate or non-individual identifier on the deed. Examples include LLCs, CORPs, and INCs, to name a few.”

CoreLogic’s “size” categories fir investors are as follows: small 3-10 properties, mid-sized 11-99 properties, and large 100+ properties.

Click on table for larger image.

What is striking is that investor home purchases by investors in all three size categories exploded upward beginning in the second quarter.

Note that while total home purchases in the third quarter of this year were up 7.5% from the third quarter of 2019, non-investor home purchases were DOWN 5.2%.

I’ll have even more on this topic later. WRT the above chart, however, here are some questions to consider:

Did investor purchases surge BECAUSE home prices were accelerating? Or was the surge in investor purchases behind the surge in home prices? Or … was it a combination of both?

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2021 09:21:00 PM

There will be no COVID updates until January 3rd. Have a safe New Year.

The CDC is the source for all data.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	62.0%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	205.8	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	316,277	176,457	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	67,324	61,699	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,100	1,216	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of hospitalizations reported.

Hospitalizations have turned up sharply over the last few days.

The second graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of new cases reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2021 04:18:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 1.46% in November, from 1.33% in October. The serious delinquency rate is down from 2.96% in November 2020.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Click on graph for larger image

By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 3.61% are seriously delinquent (down from 4.02% in October). 

For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (2% of portfolio), 6.05% are seriously delinquent (down from 6.90%), 

 For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (97% of portfolio), 1.08% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.17%). So, Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years.

Mortgages in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this monthly report, but they will not be reported to the credit bureaus.

This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.   Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once they are employed.

Freddie Mac reported earlier.

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2021 03:12:00 PM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2022: Housing Credit: Will we see easier mortgage lending in 2022?

A brief excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2022. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.
...
For Q3 2021, the Net Equity Extraction was $147 billion, or 3.24% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI).   The last two quarters have shown a sharp increase in equity extraction compared to recent years, but the level is nothing like the amount of equity extraction during the housing bubble as a percent of DPI. During the housing bubble we saw several quarters with MEW above 8% of DPI.
...
Mortgage equity withdrawal will probably decline in 2022, since fewer homeowners will refinance their mortgages. However, there is some concern about banks easing lending standards, and the rapid increase in non-QM loans.

This will be something to watch in 2022, but overall lending is still solid (unlike during the housing bubble).

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2021 10:16:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #9 for 2022: What will happen with house prices in 2022?

A brief excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2022. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing credit, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.
...
If inventory doesn’t increase in 2022, house prices will continue to increase at a double-digit pace. There are several possible reasons for an increase in inventory in 2022. Here are a few:

1. A sharp increase in mortgage rates.

2. Economic problems overseas that spillover into the US.

3. Unregulated areas of finance causing economic problems.

4.Affordability (a combination of higher mortgage rates and higher prices).

A sharp increase in mortgage rates is possible, especially if inflation stays elevated and the pandemic subsides (each wave of the pandemic has pushed down interest rates). And at some point, affordability will start to matter, but in general - with low mortgage rates - houses are still somewhat affordable (see the bottom of this post on affordability).

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2021 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 199,250, a decrease of 7,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since October 25, 1969 when it was 199,250. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 206,250 to 206,500.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 206,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 1,716,000 (SA) from 1,856,000 (SA) the previous week.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2021 08:18:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  Initial claims were 205 thousand last week.

• At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.

And on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	61.9%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	205.6	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	277,241	162,133	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	64,756	61,570	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,085	1,227	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2021 02:16:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: November 2021 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With traditional seasonal decreases after seeing annual peaks in October, November visitation exceeded 3.1M visitors (down ‐8.2% MoM and down ‐11.3% vs. Nov 2019.)

Overall hotel occupancy reached 77.6% for the month (‐4.0 pts MoM) as weekends saw continued strong levels at 90.7% (+0.3 pts MoM) while midweek occupancy ebbed MoM to 71.9% from 77.5% in October.

November room rates approached $156, surpassing Nov 2019 levels by 15.5%, while RevPAR reached $121, up 1.7% vs. Nov 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Thist graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (blue), 2020 (orange) and 2021 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 11.3% compared to the same month in 2019.

There was no convention traffic from March 2020 until June 2021 (data still N/A).

I'll add a graph of convention traffic once convention data is available.

by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2021 11:36:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Real House Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio and Price-to-Median Income in October

Excerpt:

I’ve put together my own affordability index - since 1976 - that is similar to the FirstAm approach (more of a house price index adjusted by mortgage rates and the median household income).

I used median income from the Census Bureau (estimated 2021), assumed a 15% down payment, and used a 2% estimate for property taxes, insurance and maintenance. This is probably low for high property tax states like New Jersey and Texas, and too high for lower property tax states. If we were including condos, we’d also include HOA fees too (this is excluded).

For house prices, I used the Case-Shiller National Index, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Also, for the down payment - there wasn’t a significant difference between 15% and 20%. For mortgage rates, I used the Freddie Mac PMMS (30-year fixed rates).


So here is what the index looks like (lower is more affordable like the FirstAm index)
...
In general, this would suggest houses are somewhat affordable right now (due to low mortgage rates). But this says nothing about if “now is a good time to buy” (see the bottom of my post Housing: A Look at "Affordability" Indexes).

Also, in October, the average 30-year mortgage rates were around 3.1%, and currently mortgage rates are close to 3.27% - so we already know the “Affordability Price Index” will increase over the next couple of months (meaning houses are less affordable).
emphasis added

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by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2021 10:03:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Subside 2.2% in November

Pending home sales slipped in November, receding slightly after a previous month of gains, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed contract transactions decline month-over-month. Year-over-year activity mostly retreated too, as three regions reported drops and only the Midwest saw an increase.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.2.% to 122.4 in November. Year-over-year, signings slid 2.7%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
...
Month-over-month, the Northeast PHSI declined 0.1% to 99.4 in November, an 8.5% drop from a year ago. In the Midwest, the index fell 6.3% to 116.8 last month, up 0.2% from November 2020.

Pending home sales transactions in the South ticked down 0.7% to an index of 148.2 in November, down 1.3% from November 2020. The index in the West slipped 2.2% in November to 105.5, down 4.6% from a year prior.
emphasis added

This was well below expectations of a 0.6% increase for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2021 08:20:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in the index.

And on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	61.8%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	205.2	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	240,408	150,575	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	63,106	61,471	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,096	1,181	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2021 03:19:00 PM

A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now closer to normal (second graph below).
4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.

For in depth description of these issues, see Jed Kolko's article from 2014 (currently Chief Economist at Indeed) "Let’s Improve, Not Ignore, Seasonal Adjustment of Housing Data"

Note: I was one of several people to question the change in the seasonal factor (here is a post in 2009) - and this led to S&P Case-Shiller questioning the seasonal factor too (from April 2010).  I still use the seasonal factor (I think it is better than using the NSA data).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through October 2021). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bubble, however the recent price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust.   

The swings in the seasonal factors have decreased, and the seasonal factors has been moving back towards more normal levels.

Note that the recent price surge hasn't distorted the seasonal factors.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2021 10:39:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.1% Year-over-year in October

Excerpt:

Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in Case-Shiller was at 1.03%; still historically high, but lower than the previous 14 months. House prices started increasing sharply in the Case-Shiller index in August 2020, so the last 15 months have all been historically very strong, but the peak MoM growth is behind us - and the year-over-price growth is starting to decelerate.
...

We are seeing the expected deceleration in house price growth, and this trend will probably continue for at least a few more months (more on this tomorrow). My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.99% in August was probably the peak YoY growth rate, however, since the normal level of inventory is probably in the 4 to 6 months range - we’d have to see a significant increase in inventory to sharply slow price increases, and that is why I’m focused on inventory!
emphasis added

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by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2021 09:11:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("October" is a 3-month average of August, September and October prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.1% Annual Home Price Gain in October

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.1% annual gain in October, down from 19.7% in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at 17.1%, down from 17.9% in the previous month. The 20- City Composite posted an 18.4% year-over-year gain, down from 19.1% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. Phoenix led the way with a 32.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 28.1% increase and Miami with a 25.7% increase. Six of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending October 2021 versus the year ending September 2021.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.8% month-over-month increase in October, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 0.8%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively.

In October, 18 of the 20 cities reported increases before seasonal adjustments while all 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustments

““In October 2021, U.S. home prices moved substantially higher, but at a decelerating rate,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 19.1% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 17.1% and 18.4%, respectively. In all three cases, October’s gains were below September’s, and September’s gains were below August’s. That said, October’s 19.1% gain in the National Composite is the fourth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data. (The top three were the three months immediately preceding October.)”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 0.8% in October (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 0.9% (SA) in October.

The National index is 48% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in October.  The National index is up 100% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 17.1% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 18.4% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 19.1% year-over-year.

Price increases were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2021 07:25:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: MBS RECAP: Bonds Sticking to Uneventful Script

Domestic traders were slightly better buyers despite another run to record highs in stocks. 10yr yields hit the 3pm close down just over 1bp (1.482). MBS were sideways at modestly stronger levels as well. [30 year fixed 3.27%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for October. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. 

• At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. The consensus is for a 18.5% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for October.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for December.

And on COVID:

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	60.9%	---	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	202.2	---	≥2321
New Cases per Day3🚩	206,577	136,450	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	56,466	61,362	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,041	1,164	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2021 12:00:00 PM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November

Excerpt:

This update adds Charlotte, Columbus, Miami, New York, and Phoenix.
...
Here is a summary of active listings for these housing markets in November. Inventory was down 13.5% in November month-over-month (MoM) from October, and down 28.5% year-over-year (YoY).

Inventory almost always declines seasonally in November, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 25.5% YoY, so the YoY decline in November is larger than in October. This isn’t indicating a slowing market and suggests we will see new record low inventory levels this Winter.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Currently all content is available for free, but please subscribe).