RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2022 04:54:00 PM
Monday, June 27, 2022
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate decreased in May
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was 0.80%, down from 0.85% April. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 2.01% in May 2021.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Click on graph for larger image
Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.
This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble. Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed.
The serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - almost back.
Housing: Inventory will Tell the Tale; Altos Research Reports Inventory Above Peak in 2021
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2022 10:23:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing: Inventory will Tell the Tale
Brief excerpt:
The first question I’m always asked about housing is What will happen with house prices? and then When will House Price Growth Slow? The exact impact on prices is uncertain (although I tried to answer both questions in the above links), but I believe one thing is certain: inventory will tell the tale!You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/.
That is why I watch inventory closely. ...
This morning Altos Research released inventory data as of June 24th showing that current inventory is above the peak in 2021.
...
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4). The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.
Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year. Based on recent increases in inventory, my current estimate is inventory will be up compared to 2020 in Q3 of this year (in the next few months), and back to 2019 levels at the beginning of 2023.
Inventory will tell the tale!
NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 0.7% in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2022 10:04:00 AM
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Edge Higher 0.7% in May
Pending home sales crept higher in May, ending a six-month streak of declines, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Regionally, month-over-month results were mixed as the Northeast and South experienced increases while the Midwest and West posted decreases. Year-over-year contract activity slid in all four major regions.This was above expectations of a 2.0% decrease for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in June and July.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, inched up 0.7% to 99.9 in May. Year-over-year, transactions dropped 13.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
"Despite the small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates."
...
The Northeast PHSI jumped 15.4% compared to last month to 86.7, down 11.9% from May 2021. The Midwest index retreated 1.7% to 98.6 in May, a decline of 8.8% from a year ago.
The South PHSI increased 0.2% to 119.0 in May, a 13.8% drop from the previous year. The West index contracted 5.0% in May to 81.6, down 19.8% from May 2021.
emphasis added
Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
by Calculated Risk on 6/27/2022 08:16:00 AM
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. Apple has discontinued "Apple mobility", and restaurant traffic is mostly back to normal.
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.
This data is as of June 26th.
Click on graph for larger image.This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).
The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.
The 7-day average is down 10.8% from the same day in 2019 (89.2% of 2019). (Dashed line)
Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has been moving sideways over the last several months, off about 10% from 2019.
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.
The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through June 23rd.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $241 million last week, down about 6% from the median for the week.
Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.
Movie ticket sales were at $241 million last week, down about 6% from the median for the week.
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).
This data is through June 18th. The occupancy rate was down 4.8% compared to the same week in 2019.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is slightly above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
NOTE: This is last week's data due to system issues at the EIA.
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.
Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.
As of June 10th, gasoline supplied was down 7.9% compared to the same week in 2019.
Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels.
----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider.
Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.
As of June 10th, gasoline supplied was down 7.9% compared to the same week in 2019.
Recently gasoline supplied has been running somewhat below 2019 levels.
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).
This graph is from Todd W Schneider. This graph shows how much MTA traffic has recovered in each borough (Graph starts at first week in January 2020 and 100 = 2019 average).
Manhattan is at about 36% of normal.
This data is through Friday, June 24th.
He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings".
Sunday, June 26, 2022
Monday: Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, Dallas Fed Mfg
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2022 06:56:00 PM
Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of June 26, 2022
Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in durable goods orders.
• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 2.0% decrease in the index.
• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 12, and DOW futures are down 102 (fair value).
Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $107.62 per barrel and Brent at $113.12 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $73 and Brent was at $76 - so WTI oil prices are up 45% year-over-year.
Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $4.88 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $3.09 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.79 per gallon year-over-year.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 4.8% Compared to Same Week in 2019
by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2022 08:12:00 AM
U.S. hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) reached an all-time weekly high on a nominal basis and a pandemic-era high on an inflation-adjusted basis, according to STR‘s latest data through June 18.The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
June 12-18, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 71.8% (-4.8%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $155.02 (+14.9%)
• evenue per available room (RevPAR): $111.29 (+9.4%)
*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase over the summer.
Saturday, June 25, 2022
Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week
by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2022 02:11:00 PM
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:
• May New Home Sales Increase, Over 5 Months of Inventory Under Construction
• New Home Sales and Cancellations
• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May
• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.41 million SAAR in May
• Housing Completions will Increase Sharply in 2022
• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May
This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.
You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/
Most content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!
Schedule for Week of June 26, 2022
by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2022 08:11:00 AM
The key reports this week are the third estimate of Q1 GDP, and Personal Income and Outlays for May.
Other key reports include the June ISM Manufacturing survey, June Vehicle Sales, and April Case-Shiller house prices.
For manufacturing, the June Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in durable goods orders.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 2.0% decrease in the index.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April.This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 21.0% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for April.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April 2021. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2022 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP decreased 1.5% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the second estimate of a 1.5% decrease.
Early: Census Bureau to Release Vintage 2021 Population Estimates
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 230 thousand up from 229 thousand last week.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2022. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.4%. PCE prices are expected to be up 6.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.7% YoY.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 55.0, down from 56.1 in May.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.
Late in the day: Light vehicle sales for June.The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 13.6 million SAAR in June, up from 12.7 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.
Wards Auto is forecasting sales of 13.3 million SAAR in June.
Friday, June 24, 2022
COVID June 24, 2022, Update on Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2022 09:01:00 PM
On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 66.9% | --- | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 222.1 | --- | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3 | 97,548 | 102,042 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 24,950 | 24,513 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3 | 283 | 291 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. | ||||
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.
Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Fairly Wide Range
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2022 01:32:00 PM
From BofA:
We continue to track 1.5% qoq saar growth for 2Q, unchanged from last week. We continue to forecast 2.3% GDP growth for 2022 and expect growth to slow to 1.4% and 0.8% in 2023 and 2024, respectively as the lagged effects of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions cool the economy. [June 24 estimate]From Goldman:
emphasis added
Following today’s data, we boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.9% (qoq ar) [June 24 estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.0 percent on June 16, unchanged from June 15 after rounding. [June 16 estimate]
May New Home Sales Increase, Over 5 Months of Inventory Under Construction
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2022 11:23:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: May New Home Sales Increase, Over 5 Months of Inventory Under Construction
Brief excerpt:
The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate.You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/.
There are just over 0.68 months of completed supply (red line). This is about half the normal level.
The inventory of new homes under construction is at 5.0 months (blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. This is close to the record set in 1980.
And a record 115 thousand homes have not been started - about 2.0 months of supply (grey line) - almost double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand.
New Home Sales Increase to 696,000 Annual Rate in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2022 10:09:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 696 thousand.
The previous three months were revised up, combined.
Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.7 percent above the revised April rate of 629,000, but is 5.9 percent below the May 2021 estimate of 740,000.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales are now at pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply decreased in May to 7.7 months from 8.3 months in April. The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 444,000. This represents a supply of 7.7 months at the current sales rate."
The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).In May 2022 (red column), 63 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 65 thousand homes were sold in May.
The all-time high for May was 120 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for May was 26 thousand in 2010.
This was above expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined. I'll have more later today.
Black Knight: "Past-Due Mortgages Fall to Third Consecutive Record Low in May"
by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2022 08:30:00 AM
From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Past-Due Mortgages Fall to Third Consecutive Record Low in May; Serious Delinquencies, Foreclosure Starts See Continued Improvement
• The national delinquency rate fell five basis points from April to 2.75% in May, continuing the downward trend in overall delinquencies of the prior two months and marking yet another new lowAccording to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 1.9% in May compared to April and decreased 42% year-over-year.
• Following typical seasonal patterns, early-stage delinquencies – borrowers who have missed a single mortgage payment – edged marginally higher (+0.2%) month over month
• While serious delinquencies saw strong improvement, falling 7% from April, the population of such loans (those 90 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure) remains 45% above pre-pandemic levels
• Despite elevated serious delinquency levels, foreclosure starts dropped 12% from April and continue to hold well below pre-pandemic levels while active foreclosures edged slightly higher
• Prepayment activity fell by 11.1% from the prior month and is now down 59.1% year over year on sharply higher interest rates
emphasis added
Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.75% in May, down from 2.80% in April.
The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in May to 0.33%, from 0.32% in April. This is increasing from very low levels due to the foreclosure moratoriums.
The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 1,050,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 26,000 properties year-over-year.
| Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2022 | Apr 2022 | May 2021 | May 2020 | |
| Delinquent | 2.75% | 2.80% | 4.73% | 7.76% |
| In Foreclosure | 0.33% | 0.32% | 0.28% | 0.38% |
| Number of properties: | ||||
| Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure: | 1,461,000 | 1,496,000 | 2,511,000 | 4,123,000 |
| Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: | 174,000 | 173,000 | 148,000 | 200,000 |
| Total Properties | 1,635,000 | 1,669,000 | 2,659,000 | 4,323,000 |
Thursday, June 23, 2022
Friday: New Home Sales
by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2022 08:42:00 PM
Mortgage rates have fallen from 6.28% just over one week ago to 5.75% today.
Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 580 thousand SAAR, down from 591 thousand in April.
• Also, at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 50.2.
On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 66.8% | --- | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 221.9 | --- | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3 | 97,430 | 103,175 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 24,831 | 24,358 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3 | 255 | 285 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. | ||||
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.
Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.
Fed: Banks Pass Annual Stress Test
by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2022 04:40:00 PM
From the Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve Board releases results of annual bank stress test, which show that banks continue to have strong capital levels, allowing them to continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession
The Federal Reserve Board on Thursday released the results of its annual bank stress test, which showed that banks continue to have strong capital levels, allowing them to continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession.Test results here.
All banks tested remained above their minimum capital requirements, despite total projected losses of $612 billion. Under stress, the aggregate common equity capital ratio—which provides a cushion against losses—is projected to decline by 2.7 percentage points to a minimum of 9.7 percent, which is still more than double the minimum requirement.
Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 21% Year-over-year
by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2022 03:01:00 PM
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending June 18, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up 6% above one year ago. Home sellers in many markets across the country continue to benefit from rising home prices and fast-selling homes. That’s prompted a growing number of homeowners to sell homes this year compared to last, giving home shoppers much needed options. We’ve seen more homes come up for sale this year compared to last year in 11 of the last 12 weeks.
• Active inventory continued to grow, rising 21% above one year ago. Inventory was roughly even with last year’s levels at the beginning of May and the gains have mounted each week. Still, our May Housing Trends Report showed that the active listings count remained nearly 50 percent below its level at the beginning of the pandemic. In other words, we’re starting to add more options, but the market needs even more before home shoppers have a selection that’s roughly equivalent to the pre-pandemic housing market.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Note the rapid increase in the YoY change, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 21% YoY now. It will be important to watch if that trend continues.
Also note the possible pickup in new listings. This is something I highlighted in Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May
New Home Sales and Cancellations
by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2022 12:02:00 PM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales and Cancellations
Brief excerpt:
Here is a table of selected public builders and the currently reported cancellation rate (I’m still gathering data). There is some seasonality to cancellation rates. The only builder that reported a sharp increase recently was KB Home comparing the three months ended May 31, 2022, with the three months ended May 31, 2021.There is much more in the newsletter.“The cancellation rate as a percentage of gross orders was 17%, compared to 9%.”However, as KB Home noted on their conference call yesterday, a large portion of the increase in cancellations were on “unstarted homes”.
...
Currently cancellation rates are below normal for the home builders. As an example, Toll Brothers recently announced a cancellation rate of 3.8%, down from 4.3% the previous quarter, and well below their historical rate of 7%. During the housing bust, Toll Brothers cancellation rates peaked close to 40%.
You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/.
June Vehicle Sales Forecast: Increase to 13.3 million SAAR
by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2022 10:11:00 AM
From WardsAuto: June U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Improve on May; Stay Softer than January-April (pay content). Brief excerpt:
"If the June forecast holds firm, volume will rise in Q2 from Q1, but the quarter will end at a 13.5-million-unit annualized rate, a drop from January-March’s 14.1 million ..."
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for June (Red).
The Wards forecast of 13.4 million SAAR, would be up about 5% from last month, and down 14% from a year ago (sales were starting to weaken in June 2021, due to supply chain issues).
Vehicle sales is usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy (far behind housing). However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 229,000
by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2022 08:36:00 AM
The DOL reported:
In the week ending June 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 229,000 to 231,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,500, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 218,500 to 219,000.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 223,500.
The previous week was revised up.
Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.
Wednesday, June 22, 2022
Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Bank Stress Tests
by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2022 08:13:00 PM
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 thousand down from 229 thousand last week.
• At 10:00 AM, Testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives
• At 4:30 PM, The Fed will release the annual Bank Stress Tests results.
On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
| COVID Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | Week Ago | Goal | ||
| Percent fully Vaccinated | 66.8% | --- | ≥70.0%1 | |
| Fully Vaccinated (millions) | 221.9 | --- | ≥2321 | |
| New Cases per Day3 | 99,365 | 103,646 | ≤5,0002 | |
| Hospitalized3🚩 | 24,470 | 24,213 | ≤3,0002 | |
| Deaths per Day3 | 248 | 295 | ≤502 | |
| 1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met. | ||||
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.
Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.
