by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2022 08:37:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June:

Personal income increased $133.5 billion (0.6 percent) in June, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $120.4 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $181.1 billion (1.1 percent).

The PCE price index increased 1.0 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.6 percent. Real DPI decreased 0.3 percent in June and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods increased 0.1 percent and services increased 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

The June PCE price index increased 6.8 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 6.3 percent YoY in May.

The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 4.8 percent YoY, up from 4.7 percent in May.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through June 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and the increase in PCE were both above expectations.

Inflation was above expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2022 09:01:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, June 2022. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.9% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.5%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 6.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.7% YoY.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July). The consensus is for a reading of 51.1.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

Hospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	126,272	127,478	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2🚩	37,069	35,500	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	364	382	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2022 03:18:00 PM

Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions).

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

Las Vegas saw another strong month of visitation in June as the destination hosted over 3.3M visitors, about 12% ahead of last June but approx. 8% behind June 2019.

With room inventory reflecting the net impacts of the openings of the Virgin Hotel Las Vegas and Resorts World since the middle of last year, overall hotel occupancy reached 82.7%, 6.8 pts ahead of last June but down 9.0 pts vs. June 2019. Weekend occupancy welcomed a fourth consecutive month at or above 90% and Midweek occupancy reached 80% for the first time since February 2020 (up 9.1 pts YoY but down 9.7 pts vs. June 2019).

ADR approached $157, 22.7% ahead of last June and over 30% above June 2019 while RevPAR neared $130 for the month, +33.7% YoY and +17.5% over June 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red)

Visitor traffic was down 7.8% compared to the same month in 2019.

Visitor traffic was up 12% compared to last June.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was down 8.7% compared to June 2019.

Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2022 01:14:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Median vs Repeat Sales Index House Prices

Excerpt:

Perhaps the timeliest house price report for existing homes is the monthly existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). Each month the NAR reports the median prices for closed sales. Note: Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

But even the median price is lagged. For example, the recently released June report was mostly for contracts signed in April and May.

Here is a graph comparing the YoY change in the NAR median prices vs the Case-Shiller National Index:

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and slowed to 13.3% in June (still very strong increase in YoY prices). The median price is not seasonally adjusted, and typically declines in July, and I expect a larger than normal decline this July.

In general, the median price leads the Case-Shiller index, and I expect the Case-Shiller to show significantly slower YoY growth over the next several months.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2022 10:00:00 AM

Note: The second graph - residential investment as a percent of GDP - is useful in predicting a Fed induced recession. RI as a percent of GDP usually turns down well in advance of a recession. This will be something to watch.

Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. ...

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
emphasis added

The advance Q2 GDP report, at -0.9% annualized, was below expectations, primarily due to a negative impact from a decrease in inventories. 

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 1.0% annualized rate in Q2.

The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.

In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So, the usual pattern - both into and out of recessions is - red, green, blue.

Of course - with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 - the usual pattern didn't apply.

The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.

Click on graph for larger image.

Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 14.0% annual rate in Q2.  Equipment investment decreased at a 2.7% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.7% annual rate.

The contribution to Q2 GDP from investment in private inventories was -2.01 percentage points.

On a 3-quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is down, equipment (green) is up, and nonresidential structures (blue) is still down.

I'll post more on the components of non-residential investment once the supplemental data is released.

The second graph shows residential investment as a percent of GDP.

Residential Investment as a percent of GDP decreased in Q2.

I'll break down Residential Investment into components after the GDP details are released.

Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, broker's commissions, and a few minor categories.

The third graph shows non-residential investment in structures, equipment and "intellectual property products".  

Investment in non-residential structures decreased in Q2 as a percent GDP.

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2022 08:38:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. ...

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
emphasis added

PCE increased at a 1.0% rate, and residential investment decreased at a 14.0% rate. Change in private inventories was a huge drag in Q2, subtracting 2.01 percentage points. The advance Q2 GDP report, with 0.9% annualized decline, was below expectations.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2022 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 256,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 10,000 from 251,000 to 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 249,250, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 2,500 from 240,500 to 243,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 249,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2022 09:01:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 248 thousand down from 251 thousand last week.

• Also, at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter (advance estimate), and annual update. The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.4% annualized in Q2, up from -1.6% in Q1.

• At 11:00 AM, Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. This is the last of the regional surveys for July.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

Hospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2🚩	127,786	126,610	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2🚩	36,909	35,126	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	366	391	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2022 02:02:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Recent indicators of spending and production have softened. Nonetheless, job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2022 11:30:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in May

Excerpt:

It has been over 16 years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 16% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is about 7% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be almost $334,000 today adjusted for inflation (67% increase).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). ...

The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

In real terms, the National index is 16.0% above the bubble peak, and the Composite 20 index is 7.4% above the bubble peak in early 2006.In real terms, house prices are now above the previous peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been over 16 years since the previous peak, but real prices appear historically high (Of course interest rates had been very low).

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2022 10:07:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Fell 8.6% in June

Pending home sales decreased in June, following a slight increase in May, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions posted month-over-month and year-over-year pullbacks, the largest of which occurred in the West.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, dipped 8.6% to 91.0 in June. Year-over-year, transactions shrank 20.0%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

"Contract signings to buy a home will keep tumbling down as long as mortgage rates keep climbing, as has happened this year to date," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "There are indications that mortgage rates may be topping or very close to a cyclical high in July. If so, pending contracts should also begin to stabilize."

According to NAR, buying a home in June was about 80% more expensive than in June 2019. Nearly a quarter of buyers who purchased a home three years ago would be unable to do so now because they no longer earn the qualifying income to buy a median-priced home today.
...
The Northeast PHSI slid 6.7% compared to last month to 80.9, down 17.6% from June 2021. The Midwest index dropped 3.8% to 93.7 in June, a 13.4% decline from a year ago.

The South PHSI slipped 8.9% to 108.3 in June, a decrease of 19.2% from the previous year. The West index slumped 15.9% in June to 68.7, down 30.9% from June 2021.
emphasis added

This was well below expectations for this index. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in July and August.

by Calculated Risk on 7/27/2022 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 22, 2022.

... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 18 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage applications declined for the fourth consecutive week to the lowest level of activity since February 2000. Increased economic uncertainty and prevalent affordability challenges are dissuading households from entering the market, leading to declining purchase activity that is close to lows last seen at the onset of the pandemic,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Weakening purchase applications trends in recent months have been consistent with data showing a slowdown in sales for newly constructed homes and existing homes. A potential silver lining for the housing market is that stabilizing mortgage rates and increases in for-sale inventory may bring some buyers back to the market during the second half of the year.”

Added Kan, “With mortgage rates remaining well over 5 percent, refinance applications are now 83 percent below last year’s pace.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) decreased to 5.74 percent from 5.82 percent, with points decreasing to 0.61 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply over the last several months.

The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 18% year-over-year unadjusted.

The purchase index is now only 13% above the pandemic low.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 09:02:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in durable goods orders.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 3.7% decrease in the index.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to raise rates 75 bps, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate to 2‑1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

Hospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	124,549	127,314	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2🚩	36,312	34,737	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	367	384	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 04:42:00 PM

From WardsAuto: Not a Surge but July U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking Above Past Two Months (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

"Wards Intelligence partner LMC Automotive is pegging the entire year at 14.3 million units, meaning the second-half SAAR will have to total 14.8 million units, up from first-half 2022’s 13.7 million ..."

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for July (Red).

The Wards forecast of 13.3 million SAAR, would be up about 2% from last month, and down 9% from a year ago (sales were starting to weaken in mid-2021, due to supply chain issues).

Vehicle sales is usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy (far behind housing).  However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates. 

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 02:59:00 PM

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.76%, down from 0.80% May. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.86% in June 2021.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Click on graph for larger image

Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus.

This is very different from the increase in delinquencies following the housing bubble.   Lending standards have been fairly solid over the last decade, and most of these homeowners have equity in their homes - and they will be able to restructure their loans once (if) they are employed.

The serious delinquency rate was at 0.60% just prior to the pandemic - almost back.

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 11:48:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease Sharply, Record Months of Unsold Inventory Under Construction

Brief excerpt:

The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate.

There are just over 0.83 months of completed supply (red line). This is about two-thirds of the normal level.

The inventory of new homes under construction is at 6.22 months (blue line) - well above the normal level. This elevated level of homes under construction is due to supply chain constraints. This is the all-time record; above the previous record set in 1980.

And a record 110 thousand homes have not been started - about 2.24 months of supply (grey line) - more than double the normal level. Homebuilders are probably waiting to start some homes until they have a firmer grasp on prices and demand.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/.

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 10:09:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down significantly.

Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.1 percent below the revised May rate of 642,000 and is 17.4 percent below the June 2021 estimate of 714,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in June to 9.3 months from 8.4 months in May.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 457,000. This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate."

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In June 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 61 thousand homes were sold in June.

The all-time high for June was 115 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for June was 28 thousand in 2010 and in 2011.

This was well below expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised down significantly. I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 09:41:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 19.7% Year-over-year in May

Excerpt:

Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for May were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “May” is a 3-month average of March, April and May closing prices. May closing prices include some contracts signed in January, so there is a significant lag to this data.

The MoM increase in Case-Shiller was at 1.04%. This was the smallest MoM increase since July 2020, and since this includes closings in March and April, this suggests price growth has slowed sharply.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 7/26/2022 09:10:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% In May

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 19.7% annual gain in May, down from 20.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.0%, down from 19.6% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 20.5% year-over-year gain, down from 21.2% in the previous month.

Tampa, Miami, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in May. Tampa led the way with a 36.1% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami with a 34.0% increase, and Dallas with a 30.8% increase. Four of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending May 2022 versus the year ending April 2022.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 1.5% month-over-month increase in May, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.0%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3%.

In May, all 20 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.

“Housing data for May 2022 continued strong, as price gains decelerated slightly from very high levels,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose by 19.7% for the 12 months ended May, down from April’s 20.6% year-over-year gain. We see a similar pattern in the 10-City Composite (up 19.0% in May vs. 19.6% in April) and in the 20-City Composite (+20.5% vs. +21.2%). Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at or above the 98th percentile historically
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 1.3% in May (SA).

The Composite 20 index is up 1.3% (SA) in May.

The National index is 60% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 1.0% (SA) in May.  The National index is up 119% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 19.0% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 20.5% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 19.7% year-over-year.

Price increases were slightly lower than expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 7/25/2022 08:55:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May. The consensus is for a 21.0% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 666 thousand SAAR, down from 696 thousand in May.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

Hospitalizations have almost quadrupled from the lows in April 2022.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	120,032	129,355	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	33,226	34,347	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	365	380	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.