by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2022 08:42:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Hits Keep Coming For Mortgage Market (The Bad Kind)

The positive close on a volatile Fed day offered false hope for rates--a fact that was laid bare with Thursday's massive sell-off. Now on Friday, more false hope as another massive overnight sell-off gave way to a full recovery by 9:20am. Since then, however, it's been all sellers.

In other words, bond tanked again.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	53,376	62,577	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	24,764	27,762	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	356	428	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

NOTE: Cases have declined by more than half, and deaths lag cases - so we might see average daily deaths in the 200s soon (good news, but still too high).

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2022 04:09:00 PM

From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking to 5-Month High (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

"Despite the amount of pent-up demand waiting to be tapped, without an increase in incentives combined with dealers selling fewer vehicles above sticker price, waning availability of affordable offerings on dealer lots will cause sales gains to lag the expected growth in inventory."

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for September (Red).

The Wards forecast of 13.7 million SAAR, would be mostly up 4% from last month, and up 11% from a year ago (sales started to weaken in mid-2021, due to supply chain issues).

Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy (far behind housing).  However, this time, vehicle sales have been suppressed by supply chain issues, and will probably not be significantly impacted by higher interest rates. 

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2022 01:17:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different

A brief excerpt:

There is a significant difference between measures of inventory, and this is leading to some confusion.
...
Here is a graph comparing the year-over-year change in Realtor.com’s active inventory, the NAR’s inventory, and Realtor.com inventory including pending sales. Note that the blue line (NAR) and dashed black line (Realtor including pending sales) track.

As Lawler noted, including pending sales understated the decline in active inventory in 2020 and 2021, and is now understating the increase in active inventory.

But what about Redfin? Redfin takes a very different approach. Their active inventory number for any month includes homes that came on the market and sold quickly during the month, whereas the other measures are a snapshot at the end of the month (or week).

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2022 09:54:00 AM

From BofA:

On net, August data on housing starts and existing home sales boosted our tracking estimate for residential investment modestly. After rounding, however, our 3Q US GDP tracking remained unchanged at 0.8% qoq saar. [September 23rd estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.2% (qoq ar). [September 21st estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.3 percent on September 20, down from 0.5 percent on September 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter residential investment growth decreased from -20.8 percent to -24.5 percent.​ [September 20th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2022 08:11:00 AM

From Black Knight: Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquencies Near Record Low in August; Foreclosure Starts Up 15% from July, Still More Than 40% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

• The national delinquency rate fell 3.6% in August to 2.79%, just 4 basis points above May 2022’s record low

• Improvement was broad-based, with the number of borrowers a single payment past due falling by 4% and those 90 or more days delinquent down 4.5%

• After dropping steadily over recent months, cure activity also improved in August, with 62K seriously delinquent loans curing to current status, up from 58K in July

• The month’s 20.3K foreclosure starts represent a 15% jump in activity from July, but remain 44% below August 2019 levels

• Likewise, starts were initiated on 3.4% of serious delinquencies; up slightly from July but still less than half the rate seen in the years leading up to the pandemic

• Prepays (SMM) edged up 1.5% for the month, due to calendar-related effects, but are still down by 69% year-over-year as rising rates continue to put downward pressure on both purchase and refinance lending
emphasis added

According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 3.6% in August compared to July and decreased 30% year-over-year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 2.79% in August, down from 2.89% in July.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased in August to 0.35%, from 0.35% in July. 

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 633,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is up 43,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	August  2022	July 2022	August 2021	August 2020
Delinquent	2.79%	2.89%	4.00%	6.88%
In Foreclosure	0.35%	0.35%	0.27%	0.35%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,489,000	1,543,000	2,122,000	3,679,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	185,000	184,000	142,000	187,000
Total Properties	1,674,000	1,728,000	2,264,000	3,867,000

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 06:33:00 PM

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 1.0% in August compared to the rolling 12 months ending in July.   Outbound traffic increased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.

Imports were down 12% YoY in August, and exports were up 1% YoY.  

It is possible that exports have bottomed after declining for several years (even prior to pandemic).

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 02:17:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale and Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Sep 17, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

• Active inventory continued to grow, and improved 28% above one year ago. . The number of homes for sale has grown as buyers and sellers navigate a rebalancing housing market with shifting advantages and challenges.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 10% from one year ago.. This week marks the eleventh straight week of year over year declines in the number of new listings coming up for sale, and this week the data continues to maintain at double-digit territory.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.

However, the Realtor.com data has been stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 12 weeks in a row.  This is due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales have fallen sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 12:32:00 PM

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Performance Improves; Occupancy Nears 70% Nationwide

U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week and showed improved comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Sept. 17.

Sept. 11-17, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 69.6% (-2.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $155.58 (+15.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $108.25 (+12.9%)

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will increase during the Fall business travel period, and then decline into the Winter.

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 09:32:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in August

A brief excerpt:

The big story for August existing home sales was the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story was that new listings were down YoY in August as the sellers’ strike continued. And active listings were up. Also, median prices are falling nationally (more than normal seasonally).

This is the final look at local markets in August. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
...
And a table of August sales. In August, sales in these markets were down 18.7% YoY. The NAR reported sales were down 17.4% NSA YoY. Contracts for sales in August were mostly signed in June and July, and we are seeing the impact of higher mortgage rates on August closings.
...
Looking ahead: In September 2022, there were the same number of working days as in September 2021, so the SA and NSA declines in sales will be similar.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 9/22/2022 08:32:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 213,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,250 from 224,000 to 222,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 216,750.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 08:44:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for an increase to 218 thousand from 213 thousand last week.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	55,332	60,783	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	25,406	28,571	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	356	381	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

NOTE: Cases have declined by more than half, and deaths lag cases - so we might see average daily deaths in the 200s soon (good news, but still too high).

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 02:18:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections. In June, most participants expected thirteen 25bp rate hikes in 2022. The FOMC raised rates 25 bp in March, 50 bp in May, 75 bp in June, 75 bp in July and 75 bp in September. That is twelve 25 bp increases so far, and the Fed expects rates to rise another 150 bp.  So, it now appears the FOMC is expecting eighteen 25bp rate hikes this year.

Wall Street forecasts have been revised down further since June due to the ongoing negative impacts from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and financial tightening.  The FOMC also lowered their 2022 and 2023 projections down significantly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2022	2023	2024
Sept 2022	0.1 to 0.3	0.5 to 1.5	1.4 to 2.0
June 2022	1.5 to 1.9	1.3 to 2.0	1.5 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in August. The FOMC increased their projections for the unemployment rate for Q4 2022.  And are now projecting an employment recession in 2023.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2022	2023	2024
Sept 2022	3.8 to 3.9	4.1 to 4.5	4.0 to 4.6
June 2022	3.6 to 3.8	3.8 to 4.1	3.9 to 4.1

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.3% from July 2021. The FOMC revised up their inflation projections for 2022.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2022	2023	2024
Sept 2022	5.3 to 5.7	2.6 to 3.5	2.1 to 2.6
June 2022	5.0 to 5.3	2.4 to 3.0	2.0 to 2.5

PCE core inflation was up 4.6% in July year-over-year.  And the FOMC revised up their projections. 

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2022	2023	2024
Sept 2022	4.4 to 4.6	3.0 to 3.4	2.2 to 2.5
June 2022	4.2 to 4.5	2.5 to 3.2	2.1 to 2.5

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 02:02:00 PM

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia's war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The war and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3 to 3-1/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Esther L. George; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 10:51:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased Slightly to 4.80 million SAAR in August

Excerpt:

On prices, the NAR reported:

The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $389,500, a 7.7% jump from August 2021 ($361,500), as prices ascended in all regions. This marks 126 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record. However, it was the second month in a row that the median sales price retracted after reaching a record high of $413,800 in June, the usual seasonal trend of prices declining after peaking in the early summer.

Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).

The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 7.7%. The YoY increase in August was smaller than in July (9.5%) and suggests the Case-Shiller index will slow sharply soon. Note that the median price usually starts falling seasonally in July, so the 2.4% decline from July to August in the median price was partially seasonal (but the decline over the last two months has been much larger than the usual decline).

There is much more in the article.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 10:13:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slipped 0.4% in August

Existing-home sales experienced a slight dip in August, marking the seventh consecutive month of declines, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Month-over-month sales varied across the four major U.S. regions as two regions recorded increases, one was unchanged and the other posted a drop. On a year-over-year basis, however, sales fell in all regions.

Total existing-home sales, completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, notched a minor contraction of 0.4% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.80 million in August. Year-over-year, sales faded by 19.9% (5.99 million in August 2021).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of August was 1,280,000 units, a decrease of 1.5% from July and unchanged from the previous year. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace – identical to July and up from 2.6 months in August 2021.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in August (4.80 million SAAR) were down 0.4% from the previous month and were 19.9% below the August 2021 sales rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.28 million in August from 1.30 million in July.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was unchanged year-over-year (blue) in August compared to August 2021.

Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 3.2 months in August from 3.2 months in July.

This was above the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 08:59:00 AM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Demand for design services accelerates

Demand for design services from U.S. architecture firms grew at an accelerated pace in August, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for August rose to 53.3 compared to 51.0 in July (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). During August, the score for new project inquiries rose to 57.9 from 56.1 the previous month, while the design contracts score softened slightly with a score of 52.3, down from 52.9 in July.

“While a strengthening billings score is encouraging, the flat scoring across regions and sectors is indicative of a nationwide deceleration over the next several months, said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “A variety of economic storm clouds continue to gather, but since design activity continues to increase, we can expect at least another 9–12-month runway before building construction activity is negatively affected.”
...
• Regional averages: South (52.9); Midwest (51.4); West (50.2); Northeast (49.8)

• Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (52.0); institutional (52.0); commercial/industrial (51.2); mixed practice (51.2)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 53.3 in August, up from 51.0 in July. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index has been positive for 19 consecutive months.   This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a pickup in CRE investment into 2023.

by Calculated Risk on 9/21/2022 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 16, 2022. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

... The Refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Treasury yields continued to climb higher last week in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, where it is expected that they will announce – in their efforts to slow inflation – another sizable short-term rate hike. Mortgage rates followed suit last week, increasing across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate jumping 24 basis points to 6.25 percent – the highest since October 2008,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “As with the swings in rates and other uncertainties around the housing market and broader economy, mortgage applications increased for the first time in six weeks but remained well below last year’s levels, with purchase applications 30 percent lower and refinance activity down 83 percent. The weekly gain in applications, despite higher rates, underscores the overall volatility right now as well as Labor Day-adjusted results the prior week.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 6.25 percent from 6.01 percent, with points decreasing to 0.71 from 0.76 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year.

The refinance index is just above the lowest level since the year 2000.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 30% year-over-year unadjusted.

The purchase index is only 10% above the pandemic low.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2022 09:00:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.70 million SAAR, down from 4.81 million in July.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 75bp at this meeting.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	54,152	69,550	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	25,644	28,773	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	355	374	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2022 01:30:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

A brief excerpt:

The big story for August existing home sales is the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story is that new listings are down YoY in August as the sellers’ strike continues. Of course, active listings are up sharply YoY, but inventory growth has stalled. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand, likely because of higher mortgage rates.
...
Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in August.

Note that in August 2022, there was one more selling day than in August 2021, so the SA decline in August sales will be larger than the NSA decline. The opposite was true in July (one more selling day in July 2021 than in July 2022). So, seasonally adjusted, this is probably close to the same YoY decline as in July.
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 9/20/2022 09:14:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: August Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

Red is single family units. Currently there are 812 thousand single family units under construction (SA). This is below the previous four months, and 16 thousand below the peak in April and May. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints.

Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 890 thousand multi-family units under construction.  This is the highest level since February 1974! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.

Combined, there are 1.702 million units under construction. This is the all-time record number of units under construction.

There is much more in the post.  You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).