by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2022 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 2.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 7, 2022.

... The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 39 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved higher once again during the first week of the fourth quarter of 2022, with the 30- year conforming rate reaching 6.81 percent, the highest level since 2006. Mortgage rates increased across all product types in MBA’s survey, with the largest, a 20-basis-point increase, for 5-year ARM loans. The ARM share of applications remained quite high at 11.7 percent – just below last week’s level,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Application volumes for both refinancing and home purchases declined and continue to fall further behind last year’s record levels. The news that job growth and wage growth continued in September is positive for the housing market, as higher incomes support housing demand. However, it also pushed off the possibility of any near-term pivot from the Federal Reserve on its plans for additional rate hikes.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 6.81 percent from 6.75 percent, with points increasing to 0.97 from 0.95 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year.

The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 39% year-over-year unadjusted.

The purchase index is 7% below the pandemic low and at the lowest level since 2015.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2022 08:10:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Escape Harsher Fate as Bonds Fight to Hold Ground

Treasury futures took a beating on Monday as the UK bond market once again traded in panic mode. The high rate implications were still in place as of Tuesday's overnight trading. 10yr Treasury yields broke above 4.0% yet again and continued struggling to move much lower until later in the trading day. ... The weaker opening levels resulted in mortgage rates remaining at long term highs, but they would have been higher highs had it not been for an admirable show of support in the bond market. In fact, by the afternoon hours, Treasuries and MBS were both very close to the same territory seen on Friday afternoon ... [30 year fixed 7.14%]
emphasis added

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of September 20-21, 2022

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2022 10:39:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Credit Availability was Never Excessive During the Recent Housing Boom

A brief excerpt:

Although mortgage credit availability decreased in September (the MBA headline below), the most important point is mortgage credit availability was never excessive during the boom. Here is the expanded series from the MBA of mortgage credit availability that includes the bubble years (2004 - 2006).
...
Look at that huge increase in mortgage credit availability back in the 2004 - 2006 period (remember “fog a mirror, get a loan”, NINJA loans: No Income, No Job or Assets?). In the recent boom, lending was reasonably solid, and most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes. Although I expect an increase in foreclosures from record low levels, there will not be a huge wave of foreclosures as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.

Here is the article from the MBA: Mortgage Credit Availability Decreased in September

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2022 08:15:00 AM

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying.

I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic.

This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through September 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

Note: The median price is distorted by the mix, but this is the available data.

Click on graph for larger image.

Following the housing bubble, prices declined for several years in South Lake Tahoe, with the median price falling about 50% from the bubble peak.

Currently inventory is still very low, but still up 4-fold from the record low set in February 2022, and up 38% year-over-year.  Prices are up 2.3% YoY (and the YoY change has been trending down).

It is possible that the YoY change will turn negative soon - even with inventory at historically fairly low levels.

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2022 03:08:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Rises In September

The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 5.7% (2000=100) in September to 183.2 from the revised August reading of 173.4. The DMI is a monthly measure of the initial report for nonresidential building projects in planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. In September, the commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 2.9%, while the institutional component also increased, seeing a double-digit gain of 11.7%.

After a solid performance in September, the DMI landed less than 5% below an all-time high. On the commercial side, the figure was primarily bolstered by an influx of data centers entering the planning queue. The institutional component saw a notable increase in research and development laboratory projects in the education sector, with solid contributions from healthcare and recreation projects entering the planning process. On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 26% higher than September in 2021; the commercial component was up 25%, and institutional planning was 28% higher.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 183.2 in September, up from 173.4 in August.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year".  This index suggests a solid pickup in commercial real estate construction at the end of this year and into 2023.

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2022 11:35:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Current State of the Housing Market

A brief excerpt:

Over the last month …

1. New listings have declined further year-over-year.

2. Mortgage rates have increased further pushing monthly payments up sharply.

3. House prices have started to decline month-over-month (MoM) as measured by the repeat sales indexes.
...
The following graph from MortgageNewsDaily.com shows mortgage rates over the last 12 months.

Currently mortgage rates are at a 20-year high. The payment on a $500,000 house with 20% last year, with 3.2% 30-year mortgage rates, would be around $1,730 for principal and interest. The payment for the same house, with prices up 15% and mortgage rates at 7.1%, would be $3,091 - an increase of 79%!
...
A week from Thursday, the NAR will release existing home sales for September. This report will likely show another sharp year-over-year decline in sales for September.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2022 08:45:00 AM

Inventory is now above the levels for the same week in 2020 (milestone 3 below).

Active inventory increased for the 4th consecutive week, increasing slightly last week, and hitting a new peak for the year.  Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory is declining at this time of year):

2022: +0.1K

2021: -2.2K

2020: -7.7K

2019: -8.4K

Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 133% since then.  Altos reports inventory is up 31.8% year-over-year. 

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 7th, inventory was at 561 thousand (7-day average), compared to 561 thousand the prior week. 

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 31.8% from 426 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 1.1% from 555 thousand.  Compared to 3 years ago, inventory is down 40.7% from 947 thousand.

Here are the inventory milestones I’m watching for with the Altos data:

1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4, 2022, for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 13, 2022, for Altos) ✅

3. Inventory up compared to two years ago (happened on October 9, 2022, for Altos) ✅

4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 40.7%).

Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4).

The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.

Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year.  Inventory is now up compared to the same week in 2020!

A key will be if inventory increases in the Fall this year.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2022 08:21:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of October 8th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

The 7-day average is down 9.1% from the same day in 2019 (90.9% of 2019).  (Dashed line) 

Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - had picked up towards the end of Summer, but is now, off about 10% from 2019 like earlier in the year.  

----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).  

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.  

The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 6th.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.  

Movie ticket sales were at $88 million last week, down about 35% from the median for the week.

----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

This data is through Oct 1st. The occupancy rate was down 2.4% compared to the same week in 2019. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----

This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.

Blue is for 2020.  Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

As of September 30th, gasoline supplied was up 3.6% compared to the same week in 2019.

Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.  This is only the 2nd week this year that gasoline supplied was above 2019 levels.

by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2022 06:55:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 9, 2022

Monday:
• Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open. No economic releases are scheduled.

• At 1:35 PM ET, Speech, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, Restoring Price Stability in an Uncertain Economic Environment, At the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Chicago, Ill.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 26 and DOW futures are down 174 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $92.64 per barrel and Brent at $97.92 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $80, and Brent was at $82 - so WTI oil prices are up 15% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.91 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.25 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.66 per gallon year-over-year. NOTE: Gasoline prices in Los Angeles have spiked to a near record $6.40 per gallon due to refinery issues.

by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2022 11:37:00 AM

On Friday, Fortune’s Lance Lambert and I discussed the US housing market.

Click here for audio

One of the key topics was household formation. Here is an excellent summary article by Katie McKellar at desert.com: The most ‘underreported’ factor influencing housing market, according to Calculated Risk

Bill McBride, author of the economics blog Calculated Risk, said there’s a key reason why both rent and home price growth is slowing amid the U.S. housing correction playing out today.

In a live Twitter Space hosted by Fortune Magazine on Friday, McBride called it the most “underreported” factor.

What is it? Household formation — both because of how much it accelerated amid the COVID-19 pandemic and how it’s slowing down now.

by Calculated Risk on 10/09/2022 08:11:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting on Friday: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Large Decline Again in September

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 3.0% in September from August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 204.5 and is now down 0.1% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in September was a decline of 2.1% compared to August, moving the unadjusted average price down 2.3% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in September and were down 0.1% year-over-year (YoY).  

This also suggests the consumer price index for used cars and trucks will be down again in September.

It is likely this index will be down more than 10% YoY in October.   

by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2022 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory

• Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Down Again in August ... Now 2% Off June Peak"

• "For many [home] sellers, it likely feels like the rug has been pulled out from underneath them"

• Apartments: Net Absorption Very Low in Q3, New Construction Deliveries Even Lower


This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Most content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!

by Calculated Risk on 10/08/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are September CPI and Retail Sales.

----- Monday, Oct 10th -----
Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open. No economic releases are scheduled.

1:35 PM: Speech, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, Restoring Price Stability in an Uncertain Economic Environment, At the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Chicago, Ill.

----- Tuesday, Oct 11th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September.

----- Wednesday, Oct 12th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of September 20-21, 2022

----- Thursday, Oct 13th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 219 thousand last week (likely impact from Hurricane Ian).

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in CPI, and a 0.5% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 8.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 6.5% YoY.

----- Friday, Oct 14th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2022 09:45:00 PM

NOTE: Starting this week, COVID stats will only be updated on Fridays.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

NOTE: Cases have declined by two-thirds from the recent peak, and deaths lag cases - so we might see average daily deaths in the 200s soon (good news, but still too high).

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	41,855	46,767	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	21,607	23,378	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	345	352	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2022 02:34:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

Total carloads on U.S. railroads were down 1.1% in September 2022 from September 2021. Since 1988, when our carload data begin, only 2020 had fewer total carloads in September than 2022 did. ... Intermodal was down 4.8% in September, its seventh straight decline and 14th decline in the past 15 months. So far this year, only January had lower intermodal volumes than September. That’s unusual. On average, September is the third highest intermodal month of the year (behind October and August). Intermodal volumes are being constrained by a shift in consumer spending away from goods and towards services, as well as by high inflation that means the same amount of money spent means a smaller quantity of goods purchased.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022:

Total carloads on U.S. railroads averaged 232,148 per week in September 2022. That’s down 1.1% from September 2021, up 4.6% from September 2020, and down 6.5% from September 2019. Since 1988, when our carload data begin, only 2020 had fewer total carloads in September than 2022 did.

The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

Intermodal averaged 252,826 containers and trailers per week in September 2022. That’s down 4.8% from last September, the seventh straight decline, and the biggest percentage decline in five months.

So far this year, only January had lower intermodal volumes than September

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2022 12:50:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale and Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 1, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

• Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 30% above one year ago. Highlighting the roller coaster ride that the housing market and its participants have been on in the last few years, one’s take on the current number of homes for sale depends very much on the comparison point. After a period of unusually hot activity, financial conditions are cooling demand in the housing market and there are substantially more homes for-sale compared to one year ago. However, the market still falls short of pre-pandemic inventory levels by an even greater amount.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 17% from one year ago. This week marks the thirteenth straight week of year over year declines in the number of new listings coming up for sale. As mortgage rates near 7 percent, which is a level not seen in more than two decades, sellers who are also trying to buy a home, nearly 3 of every 4 potential sellers, have had to alter their trade-up plans.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.

However, the Realtor.com data has been stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row.  This is due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales have fallen sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2022 12:49:00 PM

From BofA:

The narrowing of the August trade deficit to $67.4bn was slightly more than expected. After rounding, the data since our last weekly publication caused our 3Q US GDP tracking estimate to remain at 1.5% q/q saar. [October 7th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.9% (qoq ar). [October 7th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.9 percent on October 7, up from 2.7 percent on October 5. After this morning's employment situation report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.1 percent and -3.6 percent, respectively, to 1.3 percent and -3.4 percent, respectively. [October 7th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2022 09:40:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 11,000, combined.   The participation rate decreased, pushing down the unemployment rate to 3.5% - equaling the lowest unemployment rate since 1969!  And the employment-population ratio was unchanged. 

Leisure and hospitality gained 83 thousand jobs in September.  At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.20 million jobs, and are now down 1.14 million jobs since February 2020.  So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 86% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. 

Construction employment increased 19 thousand and is now 95 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. 

Manufacturing added 22 thousand jobs and is now 163 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

Education: As expected, fewer educators than usual were hired in September, and this resulted in a seasonally adjusted loss of 29 thousand jobs education jobs.

Earlier: September Employment Report: 263 thousand Jobs, 3.5% Unemployment Rate

In September, the year-over-year employment change was 5.69 million jobs.

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate has declined due to cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in September to 82.7% from 82.8% in August, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 80.2% from 80.3% the previous month.

Both are close to the pre-pandemic levels and indicate almost all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 306,000 to 3.8 million in September. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 3.843 million from 4.149 million in August. This is below pre-recession levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 6.7% from 7.0% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9%, and matches the lowest level on record for this measure since 1994. This measure is below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.067 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.137 million the previous month.

This is back to pre-pandemic levels.

Summary:

The headline monthly jobs number was slightly above expectations and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 11,000, combined.  

The headline unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%.

Overall, this was another solid employment report.

by Calculated Risk on 10/07/2022 08:44:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 11,000, from +526,000 to +537,000, and the change for August remained at +315,000. After revision, employment gains in July and August combined were 11,000 higher than previously reported
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.

However, as of August, all of the jobs have returned and are now 514 thousand above pre-pandemic levels. I'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 5.69 million jobs.  Employment was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 263 thousand in September.  Private payrolls increased by 288 thousand, and public payrolls decreased 25 thousand.

Payrolls for July and August were revised up 11 thousand, combined.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.3% in September, from 62.4% in August. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.1% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was decreased in September to 3.5% from 3.7% in August.

This was slightly above consensus expectations; and July and August payrolls were revised up by 11,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2022 08:29:00 PM

My September Employment Preview

Goldman September Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 250,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.7%.