by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2022 10:33:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Declined in September; Down 2.6% since June

A brief excerpt:

Here is a graph of the Black Knight HPI. The index is still up 10.1% year-over-year but declined for the third straight month in September and is now 2.6% off the peak in June.

• Housing market watchers are split on whether we will see meaningful price declines in coming months – or even years – due to low affordability, or a more lateral correction moderated by historically low inventory

• September’s data brought fodder for both sides of the debate, with home prices slipping for a third consecutive month, but at 0.52%, less than half the monthly declines seen in July and August

• All in, prices have fallen 2.6% since June – the first 3-month decline since 30-year rates spiked to near 5% back in late 2018, and the worst 3-month stretch since early 2009.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2022 09:12:00 AM

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Smaller Decline in October

Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.2% in October from September. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 200.0 and is now down 10.6% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in October was a decline of 2.1% compared to September, moving the unadjusted average price down 9.3% year over year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices decreased in October and were down 10.6% year-over-year (YoY).  

This also suggests the consumer price index for used cars and trucks will be down again in October.

It is likely this index will be down more than 15% YoY in November.   

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2022 08:32:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of November 6th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

The 7-day average is 7.7% below the same week in 2019 (92.2% of 2019).  (Dashed line) 

Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently.

----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).  

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.  

The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through November 3rd.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.  

Movie ticket sales were at $91 million last week, down about 39% from the median for the week.

----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

This data is through Oct 29th. The occupancy rate was up 5.2% compared to the same week in 2019. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels.

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----

This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.

Blue is for 2020.  Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

As of October 28th, gasoline supplied was down 11.5% compared to the same week in 2019.

Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.  

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2022 06:14:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 6, 2022

• Solid Holiday Retail Sales Forecasts

Monday:
• At 2:00 PM ET, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 28 and DOW futures are down 208 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $92.61 per barrel and Brent at $98.57 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $82, and Brent was at $83 - so WTI oil prices are up 12% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.78 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.42 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.36 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2022 09:54:00 AM

Here are two holiday retail sales forecasts. One from the National Retail Federation (NRF), and another based on October seasonal retail hiring as described in Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales

First from the NRF: NRF Predicts Healthy Holiday Sales as Consumers Navigate Economic Headwinds

Holiday spending is expected to be healthy even with recent inflationary challenges, as the National Retail Federation today forecast that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow between 6% and 8% over 2021 to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. Last year’s holiday sales grew 13.5% over 2020 and totaled $889.3 billion, shattering previous records. Holiday retail sales have averaged an increase of 4.9% over the past 10 years, with pandemic spending in recent years accounting for considerable gains.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph from the NRF showing the year-over-year change in retail sales in November and December (ex-automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants). This is NOT seasonally adjusted, and just for November and December.

My approach below uses real retail sales for Q4 (October, November and December) adjusted with CPI.

Using real retail sales: Every year I track seasonal retail hiring for hints about holiday retail sales.  This is a "watch what they do, not what they say" approach!  Here is a graph of retail hiring based on the October BLS employment report:

This graph shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

Retailers hired 163 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October.  This was down from the previous two years and suggests lower increase in real retail sales this holiday season than the previous two years -but still solid.

Note that in the early '90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier - and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued.

The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2021 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4).  

In general October hiring is a pretty good indicator of seasonal sales. R-square is 0.82 for this small sample. Note: This uses retail sales in Q4, and excludes autos, gasoline and restaurants.

The vertical dashed line is the forecast with 163 thousand seasonal hires in October 2022.  October seasonal hiring suggests real retail sales will increase around 2.75% Q4/Q4 in 2022.

NOTE: The dot in the upper right - with real Retail sales up almost 10% YoY is for 2020 - when retail sales soared due to the pandemic spending on goods (service spending was soft).

The NRF graph shows retail sales increasing more in 2021 than in 2020, but those are nominal sales (Not seasonally adjusted).   In 2020, CPI increased 1.2% Q4-over-Q4 whereas CPI increased 6.7% Q4-over-Q4 in 2021.  So real sales (inflation adjusted) increased the most in 2020, whereas nominal sales increased the most in 2021. 

The NRF is forecasting nominal sales and retail seasonal hiring fits best with real retail sales.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2022 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• “Interest rates have put the brakes on the market.”

• First Look at 2023 Housing Forecasts

• How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Increase for 2023?

• Year-over-year Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow

• Realtor.com Weekly Inventory Up 40% Year-over-year; Now Above Same Week in 2020


This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Most content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key economic report this week is October CPI.

----- Monday, November 7th -----
2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices for October.

----- Tuesday, November 8th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

----- Wednesday, November 9th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, November 10th -----
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in CPI, and a 0.5% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 8.0% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 6.6% YoY.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 217 thousand last week.

----- Friday, November 11th -----
Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.


10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2022 09:03:00 PM

30-year mortgage rates are close to a 20 year high.

NOTE: COVID stats are updated on Fridays.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths).  Data has switched to weekly.

NOTE: Cases have declined by two-thirds from the recent peak, and deaths lag cases - so we might see weekly deaths below 2,000 soon (good news, but still too high).

Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Week2🚩	273,110	260,830	≤35,0001
Hospitalized2	21,001	21,219	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2	2,504	2,581	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2022 04:20:00 PM

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

October is usually a top month for carloads, and that’s the case in 2022. Total originated U.S. carloads averaged 238,019 per week in October 2022, the most since May 2021 and up 0.5% over October 2021. ... U.S. intermodal volume fell 1.4% ... its 14th decline in the past 15 months.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022:

Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads averaged 238,019 per week in October 2022, the most since May 2021 and up 0.5% over October 2021. Typically, October is the second highest month of the year for total carloads (behind August), although there is more variability for monthly rankings for total carloads than there is for intermodal.

The second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

Intermodal volume on U.S. railroads averaged 265,606 containers and trailers per week in October 2022, down 1.4% from October 2021. It’s the eighth straight monthly decline and the 14th decline in the past 15 months.

High inventories at many retailers; warehouses that are generally still clogged (related to high inventories); the fact that many retailers moved up orders to earlier in the year to ensure delivery before the holiday season; and lower port volumes are some of the reasons why intermodal volumes this year are not as high as they otherwise would be.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2022 02:11:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Realtor.com Weekly Inventory Up 40% Year-over-year; Now Above Same Week in 2020

A brief excerpt:

Here is a graph comparing the year-over-year change in the Realtor.com active monthly data to the inventory data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The dashed line is Realtor.com’s estimate of total inventory including pendings.

t appears the NAR includes some pending sales in their inventory data, and that accounts for the divergence in the year-over-year change over the last 2 years.

Housing economist Tom Lawler noted this in early 2021:

"As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for many of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more sharply than inventory measures including such listings, and this latter inventory measure understates the decline in the effective inventory of homes for sale over the last several months."

The divergence between the NAR and other measures will probably disappear as the housing market slows.

The bottom line is inventory is still low, increasing, and the pace of growth has picked up again in recent weeks.

There many more comments in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2022 12:26:00 PM

A wide range of Q4 estimates, from 0.7% to 3.6%. It looks like Q3 GDP will be revised up in the second release.

From BofA:

[1.0% in Q4] Overall, the data since our last weekly publication when the BEA’s advance estimate of US 3Q GDP growth was realeased, moved up our 3Q GDP tracking estimate from 2.6% q/q saar (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to 3.1% q/q saar [Nov 4th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Following today’s data, we lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +0.7% (qoq ar) but boosted our past-quarter tracking estimate for Q3 by the same amount to +3.1%, compared to +2.6% as originally reported. [Nov 3rd estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 3.6 percent on November 3, up from 2.6 percent on November 1. [Nov 3rd estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2022 09:24:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined.   The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.  

Leisure and hospitality gained 35 thousand jobs in October.  At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 1.1 million jobs since February 2020.  So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 87% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. 

Construction employment increased 1 thousand and is now 97 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. 

Manufacturing added 32 thousand jobs and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.

Earlier: October Employment Report: 261 thousand Jobs, 3.7% Unemployment Rate

In October, the year-over-year employment change was 5.30 million jobs.

Seasonal Retail Hiring

Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then, seasonal hiring had increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long-term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

Retailers hired 163 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October.  This was down from the previous two years and suggests lower increase in real retail sales this holiday season than the previous two years.

This was seasonally adjusted (SA) to a gain of 7 thousand jobs in October.

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 participation rate decreased in October to 82.5% from 82.7% in September, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio decreased to 79.8% from 80.2% the previous month.

Both are close to the pre-pandemic levels and indicate almost all of the prime age workers have returned to the labor force.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 3.7 million in October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in October to 3.577 million from 3.843 million in September. This is below pre-recession levels and the fewest part time workers (for economic reasons) in over 20 years.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 6.8% from 6.7% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 22.9%, and is close to the lowest level on record for this measure since 1994. This measure is below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.165 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.067 million the previous month.

This is back to pre-pandemic levels.

Summary:

The headline monthly jobs number was above expectations and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined.  

The headline unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

Overall, this was another solid employment report.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2022 08:40:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, and the change for September was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 29,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms.

However, as of August, all of the jobs had returned and are now 804 thousand above pre-pandemic levels. I'll post this graph through the January 2023 report (includes the annual revision).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 5.30 million jobs.  Employment was up significantly year-over-year.

Total payrolls increased by 261 thousand in October.  Private payrolls increased by 233 thousand, and public payrolls increased 28 thousand.

Payrolls for August and September were revised up 29 thousand, combined.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.2% in October, from 62.3% in September. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.0% from 60.1% (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate increased in October to 3.7% from 3.5% in September.

This was above consensus expectations; and August and September payrolls were revised up by 29,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2022 09:09:00 PM

My October Employment Preview

Goldman October Payrolls Preview

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for October.   The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2022 05:01:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 225k in October (mom sa) ... Labor demand remains elevated despite declining this year, and Big Data indicators generally point to above-consensus payroll gains. ... We estimate the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5% in Octobe ... We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.35% month-over-month and 4.7% year-on-year.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2022 03:35:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 29, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

• Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 40% above one year ago. This is the third week of a more notable step up in inventory gains after rough stability since July.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, dropping 13% from one year ago. This marks the seventeenth week of year over year declines in the number of new listings coming up for sale.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.

Then the Realtor.com data was stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row.  This was due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales had fallen sharply.

Now YoY inventory is increasing again with even higher mortgage rates, suggesting sales are off more than new listings.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2022 12:07:00 PM

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus is for 200,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 263,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

Click on graph for larger image.

• First, as of September there are 514 thousand more jobs than in February 2020 (the month before the pandemic).

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.  As of August 2022, all of the jobs have returned.

This doesn't include the preliminary benchmark revision that showed there were 462 thousand more jobs than originally reported in March 2022.

• ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 239,000 private sector jobs were added in October.  This is the third release of ADP's new methodology, and this suggests job gains somewhat above consensus expectations.

• ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased in October to 50.0%, down from 48.7% last month.   This would suggest 20,000 jobs lost in manufacturing.

The ISM® services employment index decreased in October to 49.1%, down from 53.0% last month.   This would suggest service employment increased 40,000 in October.

Combined, the ISM surveys suggest 20,000 jobs added in October (way below the consensus forecast).

• Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed a slight increase in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 209,000 in September to 214,000 in October. This would usually suggest above the same number of layoffs in October as in September. In general, weekly claims were lower than expectations in October.

•  COVID: As far as the pandemic, the number of weekly cases during the reference week in October was around 264,000, down from 472,000 in September.  

• IMPORTANT: Seasonal retail hiring is important in October.  In the last two Octobers, seasonal retail hiring was strong, and retailers hired about 235 thousand seasonal workers.  That added about 50 thousand jobs to the seasonally adjusted headline number.  This will be a key number to watch (and also provides a hint about what retailers expect this holiday season).

• Conclusion: The consensus is for job growth to slow to 200,000 jobs added in October.  The ADP report was slightly above expectations, and weekly claims were positive.  However, the ISM employment surveys were disappointing, and seasonal retail hiring will probably be down this year compared to the previous two years.  My guess is the report will be close or below consensus.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2022 10:14:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, down from 56.7% last month. The employment index decreased to 49.1%, from 53.0%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4% October 2022 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the services sector grew in October for the 29th month in a row — with the Services PMI® registering 54.4 percent — say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In October, the Services PMI® registered 54.4 percent, 2.3 percentage points lower than September’s reading of 56.7 percent. This is the lowest reading since May 2020, when the index registered 45.2 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.7 percent, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 59.1 percent in September. The New Orders Index figure of 56.5 percent is 4.1 percentage points lower than the September reading of 60.6 percent.
emphasis added

This was lower than expected and the employment index was below 50.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2022 09:19:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: “Interest rates have put the brakes on the market.”

A brief excerpt:

Here are some interesting real estate agent comments from around the country courtesy of Eric Finnigan, VP at John Burns Real Estate Consulting:

#Sarasota, FL: “I've had numerous buyers looking but the prices are much higher than they want to spend. Many pulled back waiting for the market to go down.” ...
#NewYork: “Open house attendance is weaker than usual, and sales take longer.”

#OrangeCounty, CA: “Interest rates have put the brakes on the market.”

And here is some info on bidding wars from the survey:

If you are an agent, you can participate in this monthly survey … Burns Real Estate Agent Survey

There many more comments in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2022 08:46:00 AM

From the Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $73.3 billion in September, up $7.6 billion from $65.7 billion in August, revised.

September exports were $258.0 billion, $2.8 billion less than August exports. September imports were $331.3 billion, $4.8 billion more than August imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports decreased and imports increased in September.

Exports are up 22% year-over-year; imports are up 14% year-over-year.

Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and have now bounced back.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are slightly positive.

The trade deficit with China increased to $37.3 billion in September, from $36.4 billion a year ago.

The trade deficit was slightly higher than the consensus forecast.