by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2022 08:12:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start Holiday-Shortened Week

In specific terms today, the average lender is offering a conventional 30yr fixed rate that is roughly an eighth of a point higher than Friday afternoon. [30 year fixed 6.27%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM, 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for November. The consensus is for 1.400 million SAAR, down from 1.425 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2022 04:00:00 PM

Note: This is as of November 30th.

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 350,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance increased 1 basis point to 0.32%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased 5 basis points to 1.46%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 6 basis points to 0.97%.

“There were pockets of weakness in the November data, despite the forbearance rate remaining unchanged and the overall loan performance of serviced loans staying mostly flat,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The forbearance rate for Ginnie Mae loans increased for the fourth consecutive month, and the overall performance of the portfolio declined for the third consecutive month. Furthermore, the performance of government post-forbearance workouts also weakened.”

Added Walsh, “With many indicators pointing to a recession and higher unemployment in 2023, many of the most vulnerable homeowners will be those with FHA, VA, or other government loans. Loss mitigation options may help to ease the financial hardship for these homeowners.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.

The share of forbearance plans had been decreasing, although the percent in forbearance was unchanged in November. At the end of November, there were about 350,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2022 11:16:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November; California Sales off 48% YoY

A brief excerpt:

Here is a table comparing the year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) declines in sales this year from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) with the local markets I track. So far, these measures have tracked closely, and the preliminary data below suggests a sharp decline in sales in November.

NOTE: Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.16 million SAAR for November (the NAR reports this coming Wednesday). The consensus is for the NAR to report 4.20 million. (Lawler has an excellent track record).

Sales in some of the hottest markets are down around 40% YoY (all of California was down 47.7%), whereas in other markets, sales are only down in around 20% YoY.

In November, sales were down 36.3% in these markets. In October, these same markets were down 28.6% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in November 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in November 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline. And this suggests another significant step down in sales in November!
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2022 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 31, down from 33 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Reflecting a Weakening Housing Market, Builder Confidence Declined Every Month in 2022

High mortgage rates, elevated construction costs running well above the inflation rate and flagging consumer demand due to deteriorating affordability conditions have dragged builder sentiment down every month in 2022.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its 12th straight monthly decline in December, dropping two points to 31, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the lowest confidence reading since mid-2012, with the exception of the onset of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

“In this high inflation, high mortgage rate environment, builders are struggling to keep housing affordable for home buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga. “Our latest survey shows 62% of builders are using incentives to bolster sales, including providing mortgage rate buy-downs, paying points for buyers and offering price reductions. But with construction costs up more than 30% since inflation began to take off at the beginning of the year, there is little room for builders to cut prices. Only 35% of builders reduced homes prices in December, edging down from 36% in November. The average price reduction was 8%, up from 5% or 6% earlier in the year.”

“The silver lining in this HMI report is that it is the smallest drop in the index in the past six months, indicating that we are possibly nearing the bottom of the cycle for builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Mortgage rates are down from above 7% in recent weeks to about 6.3% today, and for the first time since April, builders registered an increase in future sales expectations.”

Dietz added that in this tenuous economic climate, builders still need to plan a year or more out when thinking about land and construction timelines.“NAHB is expecting weaker housing conditions to persist in 2023, and we forecast a recovery coming in 2024, given the existing nationwide housing deficit of 1.5 million units and future, lower mortgage rates anticipated with the Fed easing monetary policy in 2024.”
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell three points to 36 and traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 20. The component charting sales expectations in the next six months increased four points to 35.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell five points to 37, the Midwest dropped four points to 34, the South fell six points to 36 and the West posted a three-point decline to 26.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast, and the lowest level since 2012 (excluding the one month low at the beginning of the pandemic). 

The "traffic of prospective buyers" is now well below breakeven at 20 (below 50).

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2022 08:41:00 AM

Active inventory decreased last week.  Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter):

2022: -13.5K 

2021: -13.1K

2020: -14.4K

2019: -18.1K

Altos reports inventory is down 2.5% week-over-week and down 9.6% from the peak on October 28th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of December 16th, inventory was at 522 thousand (7-day average), compared to 535 thousand the prior week. 

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 60.2% from 326 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 15.0% from 454 thousand.  However, compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 35.0% from 804 thousand.

Here are the inventory milestones I’ve been watching for with the Altos data:

1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4, 2022, for Altos) ✅

2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 20, 2022, for Altos) ✅

3. Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅

4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 35.0%).

Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4).  The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.

A key will be if inventory declines slower than usual during the winter months.

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2022 08:29:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment.    It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of December 18th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

The 7-day average is 8.1% below the same week in 2019 (91.9% of 2019).  (Dashed line) 

Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - has picked up recently - but still below pre-pandemic levels.

----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).  

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.  

The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through December 15th.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.  

Movie ticket sales were at $50 million last week, down about 59% from the median for the week.

----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

This data is through Dec 10th. The occupancy rate was down 1.2% compared to the same week in 2019. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels.

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

----- Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration -----

This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.

Blue is for 2020.  Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

As of December 9th, gasoline supplied was down 7.1% compared to the same week in 2019.

Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels - and sometimes below 2020.  

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2022 08:28:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 18, 2022

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, unchanged from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 8, and DOW futures are up 46 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $74.29 per barrel and Brent at $79.04 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $73 - so WTI oil prices are up 5% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.28 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.19 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2022 10:50:00 AM

Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for over 12 years.  And he has graciously allowed me to share his predictions with the readers of this blog.

The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer.

The NAR is scheduled to release Existing Home Sales for November on Wednesday at 10:00 AM, December 21st.  The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR in November. Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 4.16 million SAAR.

Over the last 12+ years, the consensus average miss was 145 thousand, and Lawler's average miss was 72 thousand.

So far in 2022, the consensus average miss was 107 thousand, and Lawler's average miss was 62 thousand.

Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR)
Month	Consensus	Lawler	NAR reported1
May-10	6.20	5.83	5.66
Jun-10	5.30	5.30	5.37
Jul-10	4.66	3.95	3.83
Aug-10	4.10	4.10	4.13
Sep-10	4.30	4.50	4.53
Oct-10	4.50	4.46	4.43
Nov-10	4.85	4.61	4.68
Dec-10	4.90	5.13	5.28
Jan-11	5.20	5.17	5.36
Feb-11	5.15	5.00	4.88
Mar-11	5.00	5.08	5.10
Apr-11	5.20	5.15	5.05
May-11	4.75	4.80	4.81
Jun-11	4.90	4.71	4.77
Jul-11	4.92	4.69	4.67
Aug-11	4.75	4.92	5.03
Sep-11	4.93	4.83	4.91
Oct-11	4.80	4.86	4.97
Nov-11	5.08	4.40	4.42
Dec-11	4.60	4.64	4.61
Jan-12	4.69	4.66	4.57
Feb-12	4.61	4.63	4.59
Mar-12	4.62	4.59	4.48
Apr-12	4.66	4.53	4.62
May-12	4.57	4.66	4.55
Jun-12	4.65	4.56	4.37
Jul-12	4.50	4.47	4.47
Aug-12	4.55	4.87	4.82
Sep-12	4.75	4.70	4.75
Oct-12	4.74	4.84	4.79
Nov-12	4.90	5.10	5.04
Dec-12	5.10	4.97	4.94
Jan-13	4.90	4.94	4.92
Feb-13	5.01	4.87	4.98
Mar-13	5.03	4.89	4.92
Apr-13	4.92	5.03	4.97
May-13	5.00	5.20	5.18
Jun-13	5.27	4.99	5.08
Jul-13	5.13	5.33	5.39
Aug-13	5.25	5.35	5.48
Sep-13	5.30	5.26	5.29
Oct-13	5.13	5.08	5.12
Nov-13	5.02	4.98	4.90
Dec-13	4.90	4.96	4.87
Jan-14	4.70	4.67	4.62
Feb-14	4.64	4.60	4.60
Mar-14	4.56	4.64	4.59
Apr-14	4.67	4.70	4.65
May-14	4.75	4.81	4.89
Jun-14	4.99	4.96	5.04
Jul-14	5.00	5.09	5.15
Aug-14	5.18	5.12	5.05
Sep-14	5.09	5.14	5.17
Oct-14	5.15	5.28	5.26
Nov-14	5.20	4.90	4.93
Dec-14	5.05	5.15	5.04
Jan-15	5.00	4.90	4.82
Feb-15	4.94	4.87	4.88
Mar-15	5.04	5.18	5.19
Apr-15	5.22	5.20	5.04
May-15	5.25	5.29	5.35
Jun-15	5.40	5.45	5.49
Jul-15	5.41	5.64	5.59
Aug-15	5.50	5.54	5.31
Sep-15	5.35	5.56	5.55
Oct-15	5.41	5.33	5.36
Nov-15	5.32	4.97	4.76
Dec-15	5.19	5.36	5.46
Jan-16	5.32	5.36	5.47
Feb-16	5.30	5.20	5.08
Mar-16	5.27	5.27	5.33
Apr-16	5.40	5.44	5.45
May-16	5.64	5.55	5.53
Jun-16	5.48	5.62	5.57
Jul-16	5.52	5.41	5.39
Aug-16	5.44	5.49	5.33
Sep-16	5.35	5.55	5.47
Oct-16	5.44	5.47	5.60
Nov-16	5.54	5.60	5.61
Dec-16	5.54	5.55	5.49
Jan-17	5.55	5.60	5.69
Feb-17	5.55	5.41	5.48
Mar-17	5.61	5.74	5.71
Apr-17	5.67	5.56	5.57
May-17	5.55	5.65	5.62
Jun-17	5.58	5.59	5.52
Jul-17	5.57	5.38	5.44
Aug-17	5.48	5.39	5.35
Sep-17	5.30	5.38	5.39
Oct-17	5.30	5.60	5.48
Nov-17	5.52	5.77	5.81
Dec-17	5.75	5.66	5.57
Jan-18	5.65	5.48	5.38
Feb-18	5.42	5.44	5.54
Mar-18	5.28	5.51	5.60
Apr-18	5.60	5.48	5.46
May-18	5.56	5.47	5.43
Jun-18	5.45	5.35	5.38
Jul-18	5.43	5.40	5.34
Aug-18	5.36	5.36	5.34
Sep-18	5.30	5.20	5.15
Oct-18	5.20	5.31	5.22
Nov-18	5.19	5.23	5.32
Dec-18	5.24	4.97	4.99
Jan-19	5.05	4.92	4.94
Feb-19	5.08	5.46	5.51
Mar-19	5.30	5.40	5.21
Apr-19	5.36	5.31	5.19
May-19	5.29	5.40	5.34
Jun-19	5.34	5.25	5.27
Jul-19	5.39	5.40	5.42
Aug-19	5.38	5.42	5.49
Sep-19	5.45	5.36	5.38
Oct-19	5.49	5.36	5.46
Nov-19	5.45	5.43	5.35
Dec-19	5.43	5.40	5.54
Jan-20	5.45	5.42	5.46
Feb-20	5.50	5.58	5.77
Mar-20	5.30	5.25	5.27
Apr-20	4.30	4.17	4.33
May-20	4.38	3.80	3.91
Jun-20	4.86	4.65	4.72
Jul-20	5.39	5.85	5.86
Aug-20	6.00	5.92	6.00
Sep-20	6.25	6.38	6.54
Oct-20	6.45	6.63	6.85
Nov-20	6.70	6.50	6.69
Dec-20	6.55	6.62	6.76
Jan-21	6.60	6.48	6.69
Feb-21	6.51	6.29	6.22
Mar-21	6.17	6.02	6.01
Apr-21	6.09	5.96	5.85
May-21	5.74	5.78	5.80
Jun-21	5.90	5.79	5.86
Jul-21	5.84	5.86	5.99
Aug-21	5.88	5.90	5.88
Sep-21	6.06	6.20	6.29
Oct-21	6.20	6.34	6.34
Nov-21	6.20	6.45	6.46
Dec-21	6.45	6.33	6.18
Jan-22	6.12	6.36	6.50
Feb-22	6.16	5.97	6.02
Mar-22	5.80	5.74	5.77
Apr-22	5.62	5.57	5.61
May-22	5.41	5.35	5.41
Jun-22	5.40	5.12	5.12
Jul-22	4.88	4.90	4.81
Aug-22	4.70	4.84	4.80
Sep-22	4.69	4.82	4.71
Oct-22	4.39	4.49	4.43
Nov-22	4.20	4.16	NA
1NAR initially reported before revisions.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2022 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

• Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December

• Housing, Inflation and Why the Fed Should Consider a Pause

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Most content is available for free (and no Ads), but please subscribe!

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2022 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays.

----- Monday, December 19th -----
10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, unchanged from 33. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, December 20th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for November.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.400 million SAAR, down from 1.425 million SAAR.

----- Wednesday, December 21st -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.20 million SAAR, down from 4.43 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.16 million SAAR for November.

----- Thursday, December 22nd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 225 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2022 (Third estimate). The consensus is for real GDP at 2.9% annualized, unchanged from the second estimate of 2.9%.

8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

----- Friday, December 23rd -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.1% increase..

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for a 0.3% increase in the PCE prices index, and the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 5.7% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.7% YoY.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 595 thousand SAAR, down from 632 thousand in October.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2022

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2022 09:41:00 PM

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths).  Data is now weekly.

Weekly deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 1,666.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Week2	455,466	469,240	≤35,0001
Hospitalized2🚩	31,599	30,000	≤3,0001
Deaths per Week2	3,115	2,703	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 2Weekly for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2022 03:59:00 PM

From the California Association of Realtors®: Rapid interest rate increases continue to depress California home sales and prices in November, C.A.R. reports

• Existing, single-family home sales totaled 237,740 in November on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 13.2 percent from October and down 47.7 percent from November 2021.

• November’s statewide median home price was $777,500, down 3.0 percent from October and down 0.6 percent from November 2021.
...
Housing demand in California continued to fall as rising interest rates further dampened the state’s housing market in November as home sales registered the lowest annualized pace since October 2007 and the largest year-over-year sales drop in at least the past four decades, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 237,740 in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2022 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. November’s sales pace was down 13.2 percent on a monthly basis from 274,040 in October and down 47.7 percent from a year ago, when 454,450 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The year-to-year sales decline was the biggest since 1980.

Home sales have been on a downward trend for 17 straight months on a year-over-year basis. It was the fourth time in the last five months that sales dropped more than 30 percent from the year-ago level. The monthly 13.2 percent sales decline was worse than the long-run average of -0.5 percent change recorded between an October and a November in the past 43 years. Sales in all price segments dropped more than 40 percent year-over-year, with the $2 million plus price segment falling the most at 47.7percent. The most affordable market (sub-$300,000) experienced the smallest sales drop at 41.4 percent.
...
California’s median home price declined for the third straight month, dropping 3.0 percent in November to $777,500 from the $801,190 recorded in October. November’s price was 0.6 percent lower than the $782,480 recorded last November and marked the first year-over-year price decline in 30 months. The November 2022 price was also the lowest since February 2022.
...
• Housing inventory in California continued to rise both month-to-month and year-to-year as the market entered its holiday season and home sellers remained on the sideline. The statewide unsold inventory index (UII) was unchanged from the prior month at 3.3 months in November, but it was more than doubled the level of 1.6 months recorded in the same month of last year.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2022 11:38:00 AM

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 2.1% in November compared to the rolling 12 months ending in October.   Outbound traffic increased 0.9% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.

Imports were down 26% YoY in November, and exports were up 12% YoY.  

It is possible that exports have bottomed after declining for several years (even prior to the pandemic).

by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2022 09:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.16 million in November, down 6.1% from October’s preliminary pace and down 34.3%% from last November’s seasonally adjusted pace.  On an unadjusted basis the YOY % decline in sales was largest in the West, and smallest in the Northeast and Midwest.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2022 04:22:00 PM

From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Nears 60% as Industry Continues To Drive Rate

U.S. hotel performance came in higher than the previous week and showed improved comparisons to 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Dec. 10.

Dec. 4-10, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 59.6% (-1.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $144.79 (+15.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $86.29 (+14.0%)

*Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021.  Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue) and close to 2019 levels.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will decline through the New Year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2022 02:24:00 PM

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Dec 10, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

• Active inventory growth held steady with for-sale homes up 55% above one year ago. Inventory growth climbed higher this week after last week’s first pause in eight weeks.
...
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were again down, this week by 16% from one year ago. This marks the twenty-third consecutive week of year-over-year declines in homeowners listing their home for sale, and the decline was much bigger than last week’s smallest decline since July.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Note the rapid increase in the YoY change earlier this year, from down 30% at the beginning of the year, to up 29% YoY at the beginning of July.

Then the Realtor.com data was stuck at up around 26% to 30% YoY for 14 weeks in a row.  This was due to the slowdown in new listings, even as sales had fallen sharply.

Then the YoY change started increasing sharply again (inventory is likely falling seasonally week-to-week now, but the comparison is YoY).  

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2022 11:50:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

First, a few excerpts from the Austin Board of Realtors® November release:

For the first time since February 2019, median home prices in the Austin-Round Rock MSA experienced a 0% year over year increase, according to the Austin Board of REALTORS® November 2022 Central Texas Housing Market Report.

… housing inventory almost quadrupled to 3.1 months of inventory year over year for the Austin-Round Rock MSA
emphasis added

...
In November, sales were down 37.9%. In October, these same markets were down 29.3% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Note that in November 2022, there were the same number of selling days as in November 2021, so the SA decline will be similar to the NSA decline. And this suggests another significant step down in sales in November!
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2022 09:12:00 AM

Note: The Cleveland Fed release was delayed this month. The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in November. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 7.0%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 6.7%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.0%. Core PCE is for October and increased 5.0% year-over-year.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Used Cars" decreased at a 30% annualized rate in November.

Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up between 5.2% annualized in the Northeast and 10.4% in the South with an average of close to 8% annualized. This data is lagged, and actually rent growth has slowed sharply in recent months.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2022 08:45:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from October to November (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.5 percent from November 2021.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 billion, down 0.6 percent from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent above November 2021. ... The September 2022 to October 2022 percent change was unrevised from up 1.3 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.6% in November.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 5.6% on a YoY basis.

Sales in November were below expectations, and sales in September and October were revised down, combined.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2022 08:33:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 230,000 to 231,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 227,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.