by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 06:52:00 PM

On graphs: All graphs are free to use - all I ask is credit and a link for online sites, and a mention of http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ in printed material.

To obtain a large graph, use the Graph Gallery - select a graph (tabs at the top are for the various galleries) and click on "Print" in the lower left.

Data Sources: Enjoy!

I'm frequently asked for sources of data, so here is an updated list ranking economic data. For each indicator I've included a link to the source, and a link to the current graph gallery.

These lists are not exhaustive, and the rankings are not static. As an example, right now initial weekly unemployment claims is ‘B List’ data, but when (if) the expansion takes hold, weekly claims will move unceremoniously to the 'D List'.

I've marked several indicators with '***' indicating I think this data is currently more important than usual. This includes weekly claims and several real estate related releases (delinquency reports, negative equity, vacancy rates).

Some of the lower ranked data is useful as leading indicators. As an example, the Architecture Billings Index is a leading indicator for investment in commercial real estate. And the NMHC apartment survey leads changes in apartment rents and vacancy rates. Also some of the lower ranked data helps forecast some of the more important data.

Note: There has been some research (by Wall Street analysts) about how "surprises" for many of these indicators impact the stock market. In general the ranking is similar to this list, with the employment situation report being #1. Surprisingly (at least to me) investors tend to react more to "surprises" for existing home sales than new home sales, even though the later is far more important from an economic perspective.

A-List
• BLS: Employment Situation Report (Employment Graphs)
• BEA: GDP Report (quarterly) (GDP Graphs)

B-List
• Census: New Home Sales (New Home Graphs)
• Census: Housing Starts (Housing Graphs)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (ISM Graph)
• Census: Retail Sales (Retail Graphs)
• BEA: Personal Income and Outlays (graph)
• Fed: Industrial Production (graphs IP and Capacity Utilization)
• BLS: Core CPI (graph CPI)
• ***DOL: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims (graph weekly claims)

C-List
• Philly Fed Index (Graph Philly Fed)
• NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index (Graph Empire Index)
• Chicago ISM: Chicago PMI
• Census: Durable Goods
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Graphs)
• House Prices: Case-Shiller and CoreLogic (House Price Graphs)
• NAR: Existing Home Sales (Graphs Existing Home)
• NAHB: Housing Market Index (Graph NAHB HMI)
• Census: Trade Balance (Graph Trade Balance)
• ***MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Data (Quarterly) (Graph MBA delinquency)
• ***LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Data (Graphs LPS Delinquency)
• ***CoreLogic: Negative Equity Report (quarterly) (Graphs Negative Equity)
• ***AIA: Architecture Billings Index (Graph ABI)
• ***Reis: Office, Mall, Apartment Vacancy Rates (Quarterly) (Graphs REIS Vacancy Rate)
• ***NMHC Apartment Survey (Quarterly) (Graph NMHC Survey)

D-List
• Reuters / Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Graph Consumer Confidence)
• MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Index (Graph MBA Index)
• BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Graph JOLTS)
• Census: Construction Spending (Graph Construction Spending)
• ¹Census: Housing Vacancy Survey (Quarterly) (Graphs Homeownerhip, Vacancy Rates)
• Fed: Senior Loan Officer Survey (Quarterly)
• AAR: Rail Traffic (Graph Transportation)
• ATA: Trucking (Graph Transportation)
• Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel Index (Graph Transportation)
• NFIB: Small Business Survey (Graphs NFIB Survey)
• Fed: Flow of Funds (Quarterly) (Graph Household Net Worth)
• STR: Hotel Occupancy (Graph Hotel Occupancy)
• CRE Prices: CoStar, Moody’s (Graphs)
• Manufacturers: Light Vehicle Sales (Graph Vehicle Sales)
• NRA: Restaurant Performance Index (Graph)
• Fed: Consumer Credit
• DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven (Graph Miles Driven)
• LA Port Traffic (Graph Port Traffic)
• BLS: Producer Price Index
• ADP Employment Report
• Conference Board Confidence Index
• NAR: Pending Home Sales
• Census: State Unemployment Rates, (graph)

¹: There are questions about the accuracy of the HVS.

Sources (Government):
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Census: Census Bureau
DOL: Dept of Labor
DOT: Dept. of Transportation
Fed: Federal Reserve

Sources (Industry):
AAR: Association of American Railroads
AIA: American Institute of Architects
ISM: Institute for Supply Management
LPS: Lender Processing Services
MBA: Mortgage Bankers Association
NAHB: National Association of Homebuilders
NAR: National Association of Realtors
NFIB: National Federation of Independent Business
NRA: National Restaurant Association
STR: Smith Travel Research

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 03:14:00 PM

Here is a depressing report from the National Employment Law Project: States Made Unprecedented Cuts to Unemployment Insurance in 2011

NELP’s new analysis shows that in 2011, six states cut the maximum number of weeks that jobless workers can receive unemployment insurance to less than 26 weeks—a threshold that had served as a standard for all 50 states for more than half a century, until this year. Michigan, Missouri, and South Carolina cut their available weeks down to 20; Arkansas and Illinois cut down to 25; and Florida cut to between 12 and 23 weeks, depending on the state’s unemployment rate. Double-digit unemployment in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida did not discourage lawmakers there from making the cuts.

... Indiana changed the formula it uses to calculate weekly benefit amounts so that the average unemployment check will drop from $283 to $220 a week.

Ouch.

More from the report:

Throughout the recession, states with inadequate unemployment insurance trust fund reserves have relied on loans from the federal government to pay state unemployment insurance benefits. This September, states will begin paying interest on these loans, and starting in 2012, the federal government will raise taxes on employers in borrowing states until loans are paid in full, as required by the law.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 11:43:00 AM

Notes: Case-Shiller is the most followed house price index, but CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average of April, May and June (June weighted the most) and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Shows Third Consecutive Month-Over-Month Increase

CoreLogic ... today released its June Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. increased by 0.7 percent in June 2011 compared to May 2011, the third consecutive month-over-month increase. According to CoreLogic, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 6.8 percent in June 2011 compared to June 2010 after declining by 6.7 percent* in May 2011 compared to May 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 1.1 percent in June 2011 compared to June 2010 and by 2.1* percent in May 2011 compared to May 2010. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

“While there is a consistent and sustained seasonal improvement in prices over the last three months, prices are lower than a year ago due to the decline in prices after the expiration of the tax credit last year. The difference between the overall HPI and our index excluding distressed sales indicates that the price declines are more concentrated in the distressed sales market,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 0.7% in June, and is down 6.8% over the last year, and off 31.7% from the peak.

Some of this increase is seasonal (the CoreLogic index is NSA) and the index is still off 6.8% from last June. This is also the eleventh consecutive month showing a year-over-year decline.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 10:00:00 AM

The July ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 52.7%, down from 53.3% in June. The employment index decreased in July to 52.5%, down from 54.1% in June. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2011 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in July for the 20th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI registered 52.7 percent in July, 0.6 percentage point lower than the 53.3 percent registered in June, and indicating continued growth at a slower rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 2.7 percentage points to 56.1 percent, reflecting growth for the 24th consecutive month and at a faster rate than in June. The New Orders Index decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 51.7 percent. The Employment Index decreased 1.6 percentage points to 52.5 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 11th consecutive month, but at a slower rate than in June. The Prices Index decreased 4.3 percentage points to 56.6 percent, indicating that prices increased at a slower rate in July when compared to June. According to the NMI, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in July. Respondents' comments remain mixed; however, for the most part they indicate that business conditions are flattening out."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

This was below the consensus forecast of 54.0%.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2011 08:15:00 AM

ADP reports:

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector rose 114,000 from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated advance in employment from May to June was revised down modestly to 145,000, from the initially reported 157,000.
...
Employment in the service-providing sector rose by 121,000 in July, marking 19 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector fell by 7,000 in July, the second decline in three months. Manufacturing employment decreased 1,000 in July, which has seen growth in seven of the past nine months.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

This was above the consensus forecast of an increase of 100,000 private sector jobs in July. The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 75,000 payroll jobs in July, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis.

The ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.

Yesterday:
• Recession Measures (Graphs showing how little the economy has recovered).
• FHA sells record number of REO in June
• U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 12.23 million Annual Rate in July