by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2011 12:47:00 AM

There will be a meeting of German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicholas Sarkozy on Tuesday. There were some more rumors of a Eurobond this weekend, but according to the Financial Times that has been ruled out for now: Germany and France rule out eurobonds. Another meeting is not a good sign ...

The NY Times discusses the slowing European economies: Setbacks May Push Europe Into a New Downturn

On Tuesday, economists expect a report on euro area economic activity to show that gross domestic product slowed to 0.3 percent in the second quarter, from 0.8 percent in the first three months of the year.

And the NY Times discusses the false rumor last week about funding problems at Société Générale: Source Sought for False Story on French Bank. Pretty amusing story - it seems the rumor might have started with a fictional story in Le Monde (that was clearly labeled fiction).

And from the WSJ: Japan's Economy Shrinks but Beats Expectations

... Japan's economy continues to rebound from the devastating March 11 earthquake and tsunami faster than anticipated. The government reported that real Gross Domestic Product shrank 1.3% in annualized, seasonally adjusted terms in the second quarter. The outcome beat a 2.7% contraction [forecast].

The Asian markets are green tonight with the Nikkei up over 1%. The Hang Seng is up over 2%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P 500 is up about 7 points, and Dow futures are up about 70 points.

Oil: WTI futures are up to $85 and Brent is up to $108.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending August 12th
• Schedule for Week of August 14th

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2011 05:32:00 PM

On Friday, Reuters and the University of Michigan released the preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. This showed a sharp decline in sentiment to 54.9, the lowest level in 30 years (see graph below).
My reaction was the decline in sentiment was related to the heavy coverage of the debt ceiling debate, and not due to the usual suspects: gasoline prices or a weakening labor market. Of course consumer sentiment was already low because of high gasoline prices and a weak labor market, but gasoline prices are now falling and initial weekly unemployment claims have declined recently (the key for sentiment is that neither appears to be getting worse rapidly).

I looked at some of the previous spikes down in sentiment due to fairly short term events: 1) the 1987 market crash, 2) the Gulf War, 3) 9/11, 4) the Iraq Invasion, and 5) Hurricane Katrina. These events are apparent on the following graph (along with plenty of noise):

Click on graph for larger image in graphic gallery.

There are other reasons for declines in sentiment, but I was looking for event driven declines. Note: It is more unusual to see sentiment spike up due to an event - perhaps the capture of Saddam Hussein in Dec 2003 led to an increase in sentiment in the January 2004 report.

Looking at these five events (table below), some of the declines were related to other factors (like an increase in oil prices) - and some lasted longer and had a direct impact on consumption.

My feeling is the debt ceiling decline - assuming the decline was due to the insanity in D.C. - is most similar to the 1987 stock market crash (that scared everyone, but had little impact on the economy) and to Hurricane Katrina (although Katrina led to higher oil prices and a direct impact on consumption in several gulf states).

If I'm correct, then sentiment should bounce back fairly quickly - but only to an already low level. And the impact on consumption should be minimal. Of course sentiment could have declined because of other factors (weak labor market, European financial crisis, etc), and then sentiment will probably not bounce back quickly.

Event Driven Declines in Consumer Sentiment
Event	Date	Bounce Back	Impact on Consumption	Other Factors
1987 Market Crash	Oct-87	2 Months	None	None
Gulf War	Aug-90	6 Months	PCE declined	Recession, Oil Prices Doubled
9/11	Sep-01	4 months	PCE declined 3 out of 4 months	Recession
Iraq Invasion	Mar-03	2 Months	None	Oil Prices increased 10%+
Hurricane Katrina	Aug-05	3 Months	PCE declined 2 months	Oil Prices increased 10%+
Debt Ceiling	Aug-11	---	---	European Crisis, Weak Recovery

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending August 12th
• Schedule for Week of August 14th

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2011 02:11:00 PM

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Economic consequences of recent oil price changes

Earlier this year, disruptions in Libya and the resurgence of demand from the emerging economies sent oil prices up sharply, a development that many economists believe contributed to the slow growth for 2011:H1. The chaotic markets of the last few weeks saw oil prices drop back down to where they had been in December. Will that be enough to revive the struggling U.S. economy? There is some evidence suggesting that it may be too late.

I recently completed a survey of a large number of academic studies that found a nonlinear economic response to oil price changes. One very well-established observation is that although oil price increases were often associated with economic recessions, oil price decreases did not bring about corresponding economic booms. ... An oil price increase that just reverses a recent price decrease does not seem to have the same economic effects as a price move that establishes new highs.
emphasis added

In his post, Hamilton notes that there is usually a lagged response to oil price increases, and the worst impact from the sharp increase earlier this year would usually be expected at the end of this year - even though prices have since declined.

However, Hamilton continues:

My reading of developments during 2011 has been that, because of the very high gasoline prices we saw in 2008, U.S. car-buying habits never went back to the earlier patterns, and we did not see the same shock to U.S. automakers as accompanied some of the other, more disruptive oil shocks.

So maybe the impact will be less than for previous price shocks. Lower oil and gasoline prices has to help a little, however as Hamilton concludes, the reasons for the recent oil price decline are not good news for the U.S. economy.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2011 10:02:00 AM

From Alana Semuels at the LA Times: Companies are afraid to hire, even if business is improving

Though South Coast Shingle Co. is in the black for the first time in a few years, [Ross Riddle, the president] is fearful of hiring more people in what he believes is a shaky economy.

"I hear politicians say that businesses have money and they should be hiring," said Riddle ... "But if you don't have the demand, you don't hire the people."

Surveys have been showing that lack of demand has been the number one small business problem for over three years.

And it seems like a vicious cycle:

The economy won't improve until businesses hire, but many won't hire without consumer demand, which is weak because of the current state of the job market and concerns about the future.
...
Riddle is also wary. Having ridden out the housing downturn, he seems as eager to pinch pennies as a grandmother who suffered through the Great Depression. He's decided to put off buying new trucks and forklifts this year, although he usually buys one of each annually.

"We're making money now, but we still have five months left in the year," he said. "Who knows what's going to happen?"

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending August 12th
• Schedule for Week of August 14th

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2011 10:46:00 PM

This is depressing ...from the NY Times: White House Debates Fight on Economy

Mr. Obama’s senior adviser, David Plouffe, and his chief of staff, William M. Daley, want him to maintain a pragmatic strategy of appealing to independent voters by advocating ideas that can pass Congress, even if they may not have much economic impact. These include free trade agreements and improved patent protections for inventors.

But others, including Gene Sperling, Mr. Obama’s chief economic adviser [argue] for bigger ideas like tax incentives for businesses that hire more workers ...

Tax incentives are the "bigger idea"? It sounds like the debate is between doing nothing and doing very little.

If I arrived on the scene today - with a 9.1% unemployment rate and about 4.6 million homes with seriously delinquent mortgages or REO - I'd be arguing for an aggressive policy response.