by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2012 12:21:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Remains Positive for Fourth Straight Month

Led by the commercial sector, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has remained in positive territory four months in a row. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the February ABI score was 51.0, following a mark of 50.9 in January. This score reflects a slight increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 63.4, up from mark of 61.2 the previous month and its highest reading since July 2007.

“This is more good news for the design and construction industry that continues to see improving business conditions,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The factors that are preventing a more accelerated recovery are persistent caution from clients to move ahead with new projects, and a continued difficulty in accessing financing for projects that developers have decided to pursue.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 51.0 in February (slight expansion). Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. So this suggests further declines in CRE investment in early 2012, but perhaps stabilizing mid-year.

All current Commercial Real Estate graphs

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2012 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: February Existing-Home Sales Slip But Up Strongly From a Year Ago

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, slipped 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.59 million in February from an upwardly revised 4.63 million in January [revised up from 4.57], but are 8.8 percent higher than the 4.22 million-unit level in February 2011.
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Total housing inventory at the end of February rose 4.3 percent to 2.43 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 6.0-month supply in January. Even so, unsold listed inventory has trended down from a record 4.04 million in July 2007, and is 19.3 percent below a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in February 2012 (4.59 million SAAR) were 0.9% lower than last month, and were 8.8% above the February 2011 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.43 million in February from 2.33 million in January. Inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and usually inventory increases from the seasonal lows in December and January to the seasonal high in mid-summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory decreased 19.3% year-over-year in February from February 2011. This is the twelfth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory.

Months of supply increased to 6.4 months in February, up from 6.0 months in January.

This was close to expectations of sales of 4.61 million.

All current Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2012 09:00:00 AM

LPS released their First Look report for February today. LPS reported that the percent of loans delinquent declined in February from January. However the percent of loans in the foreclosure process only declined slightly.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) declined to 7.57% from 7.97% in January. This is the lowest delinquency rate since 2008; however the percent of delinquent loans is still way above the normal rate of around 4.5% to 5%. The percent of delinquent loans peaked at 10.97%, so delinquencies have fallen a little more than halfway back to normal.

The following table shows the LPS numbers for February 2012, and also for last month (Jan 2012) and one year ago (Feb 2012).

LPS: Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure
	Feb-12	Jan-12	Feb-11
Delinquent	7.57%	7.97%	8.80%
In Foreclosure	4.13%	4.15%	4.15%
Less than 90 days	2,059,000	2,226,000	2,495,000
More than 90 days	1,722,000	1,772,000	2,165,000
In foreclosure	2,065,000	2,084,000	2,196,000
Total	5,846,000	6,082,000	6,856,000

Note that the number of loans in the foreclosure process has only declined slightly year-over-year. This remains far above the "normal" level of around 0.5%.

by Calculated Risk on 3/21/2012 08:01:00 AM

From the MBA: Interest Rates Highest Since December, Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 9.3 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.0 percent from one week earlier.
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The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 73.4 percent of total applications, the lowest since July 2011, from 75.1 percent the previous week.
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"With the rate increase last week, refinances are obviously slowing, and the refinance share at 73% is down to its lowest level since last July. With rate/term refinances falling as we go forward, HARP will be a bigger percentage of refinances but will be more concentrated in certain states," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's Senior Vice President of Research and Education. Brinkmann continued, "Some of the largest institutions are reporting that the HARP share of their refinances remained at about 30% last week, but HARP volume is not equal across the country. The states that I started referring to years ago as the sand states that had the worst delinquencies we now should start calling the HARP states for mortgage refinances. We saw big state-level differences in refinance applications for February over January: Florida was up 49%, Arizona was up 61%, and Nevada was up 71%. Refinances in the rest of the country were generally flat or even down. For example, Texas had no change, Colorado was down 3%, Connecticut was up only 2%, and Virginia was up 1%. HARP clearly is a driving force in those states that saw the most defaults and the biggest drops in home equity."
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.19 percent from 4.06 percent,with points increasing to 0.47 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The purchase index was only off slightly - and this doesn't include the high percentage of cash buyers.

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2012 09:23:00 PM

No surprise ... from the WSJ: Greek Parliament Approves Second Bailout

Greece's Parliament approved a new international bailout deal ... setting the stage for a round of harsh measures that the country's international creditors have set as a precondition for the funds.

The approval came in the early hours of Wednesday, with 213 lawmakers supporting the loan deal, and with 79 deputies voting against it. Eight didn't cast a vote.

Next up is an election in late April or early May.

Earlier:
• Housing Starts decline slightly in February
• Starts and Completions: Multi-family and Single Family