by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2012 05:05:00 PM

From Margo Beller at CNBC: Improving Housing Market Driving Economy: Jamie Dimon

"I believe we’re very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green," [CEO Jamie Dimon] said during a job fair in New York for hiring veterans.

... "the shadow inventory everyone talks about is lower today than it was 12 months ago. It will be a lot lower 12 months from now," he said.

Distressed inventory "is actually coming down, not going up. Homes for sale are about half what they were four years ago. You could come up with a pretty bullish case. If the economy grows, housing gets better, quicker."

The comment on inventory declining in half is a bit of an exaggeration - actually listed inventory peaked at just over 4 million in July 2007, and is down about 40% - and inventory will increase seasonally over the next 6 months.

However I agree with Dimon on his key points. The first "bottom" for housing (new home sales, housing starts and residential investment) has already happened, and the second bottom (for prices) is close to an "inflection point".

See my posts from early February: The Housing Bottom is Here and Housing: The Two Bottoms

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2012 02:09:00 PM

This is a depressing, but important post from Binyamin Appelbaum at the NY Times Economix: The Enduring Consequences of Unemployment

Our economic malaise has spurred a wave of research about the impact of unemployment on individuals and the broader economy. The findings are disheartening. The consequences are both devastating and enduring.

People who lose jobs, even if they eventually find new ones, suffer lasting damage to their earnings potential, their health and the prospects of their children. And the longer it takes to find a new job, the deeper the damage appears to be.
...
A 2009 study, to cite one recent example, found that workers who lost jobs during the recession of the early 1980s were making 20 percent less than their peers two decades later. The study focused on mass layoffs to limit the possibility that the results reflected the selective firings of inferior workers.

Losing a job also is literally bad for your health. A 2009 study found life expectancy was reduced for Pennsylvania workers who lost jobs during that same period. A worker laid off at age 40 could expect to die at least a year sooner than his peers.

And a particularly depressing paper, published in 2008, reported that children also suffer permanent damage when parents lose jobs.

As Appelbaum notes, much of this research was related to earlier recessions and does not address the issue of duration of unemployment.

Here is a repeat of a graph of duration of unemployment based on the most recent employment report:

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

One of the defining characteristics of the 2007 recession is the large number of workers unemployed for an extended period (the red line on the graph). The consequences of long term unemployment are probably worse than the studies Appelbaum mentioned.

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2012 10:28:00 AM

The Financial Times is reporting: US, France and UK consider oil release

Asked by reporters ... whether France would join a US-UK move to release strategic stocks, [French energy minister] Eric Besson replied: “It is the US that has asked for it. France is favourable to the suggestion.”

The minister added: “We are waiting now for the conclusions of the International Energy Agency”.
excerpt with permission

The article notes that the head of the IEA has recently said that a release is not warranted because there is no disruption in supply.

More from Reuters: France discussing strategic oil release with UK, US

France's Energy Minister Eric Besson told journalists after the weekly ministers' meeting that the United States had asked France to join it in a possible emergency inventory release.

Such a release could happen "in a matter of weeks", Le Monde daily said on Wednesday, citing presidential sources.

According to Bloomberg, Brent Crude futures are at $123.99 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at $105.37 per barrel.

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2012 08:38:00 AM

From the MBA: Refinance Applications Drop for Sixth Consecutive Week

Mortgage applications decreased 2.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 23, 2012. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 4.6 percent from the previous week. The Refinance Index has decreased for six consecutive weeks, falling to its lowest level since December, and is 24.2 percent lower than its 2012 peak observed in February. The decline in the Refinance Index this week was driven largely by a 12.0 percent drop in government refinance activity, while conventional refinance applications fell by less, decreasing 3.4 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.3 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.23 percent, the highest rate since November 2011, from 4.19 percent

Now that the automated systems are available, we will probably see an increase in HARP refinance activity going forward.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2012 11:12:00 PM

From the WSJ: Greece's Fringe Parties Surge Amid Bailout Ire

The election, not yet scheduled but expected in April or May, is shaping up as a public revolt against Greece's political establishment, which has backed the austerity policies that are the price of financial life support from Europe and the International Monetary Fund. Mainstream politicians are increasingly painted as leading Greece into a debt trap, then impoverishing it in trying to escape.

As a result, Greece's major parties, which have promised Europe they will enact yet another round of deep public-spending cuts by summer, are struggling for support.

Half the electorate plans to vote for radical opposition groups, ranging from Soviet-style Communists to anti-immigrant neo-Nazis ...

This sounds like a "just vote no" election.

Earlier on House Prices:
• Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in January
• Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline to late '90s Levels
• All current house price graphs