by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2012 02:19:00 PM

From Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register: O.C. builder Lyon Homes orders soar 89

Builder William Lyon Homes of Newport Beach says it's had a quick business revival as it exited bankruptcy.

Highlights for Lyon — building in California, Nevada and Arizona — for the three months ended March 31:

• New home orders: 321, up 89% vs. a year ago and first 300-plus orders since 2008′s 2nd quarter. (Southern California sales were up 20%.)

• Homes closed: 128, up 15% vs. a year ago.

• Cancellation rate: 9% vs. 15% vs. a year ago.

CEO Gen. William Lyon: "The spring selling season is off to a great start."

William Lyon Homes filed for bankruptcy last November, and emerged from bankruptcy in February.

Note that Lyon builds in California, Arizona and Nevada - all hard hit states.

We've been seeing similar comments from other home builders, but this hasn't shown up yet in the Census Bureau's monthly new home sales report.

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2012 10:47:00 AM

Note: This index is a leading indicator for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From AIA: Positive Conditions Persist for Architecture Billings Index

The commercial sector continues to lead the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) which has remained in positive territory for the fifth consecutive month. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the March ABI score was 50.4, following a mark of 51.0 in February. This score reflects a slight increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 56.6, down from mark of 63.4 the previous month.

“We are starting to hear more about improving conditions in the marketplace, with a greater sense of optimism that there will be greater demand for design services,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But that is not across the board and there are still a number of architecture firms struggling so progress is likely to be measured in inches rather than miles for the next few months.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 50.4 in March (slight expansion). Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. So this suggests further declines in CRE investment in early 2012, but perhaps stabilizing mid-year.

All current Commercial Real Estate graphs

by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2012 08:28:00 AM

Form the MBA: Refinance Applications Up, Purchase Applications Down in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 13.5 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 11.2 percent from one week earlier.
...
The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 75.2 percent of total applications from 70.5 percent the previous week.
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Renewed concerns about sovereign debt in Europe led to a drop in rates last week, with the 30-year rate tying our survey low, reached in early February. Refinance activity picked up in response, increasing 13.5 percent for the week. Participants in our survey indicated that about 32 percent of this refinance volume was for HARP loans," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's Chief Economist and SVP of Research and Education. "While purchase activity declined sharply for the week, this was mostly due to a 23 percent drop in applications for FHA purchase loans. This drop follows big increases in the demand for FHA loans over several weeks in anticipation of the FHA mortgage insurance premium increases that went into effect last week. This was the largest weekly drop in the government purchase index since the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit in May 2010. The demand for conventional purchase loans was down only slightly."

The average loan size of all loans for home purchase in the US was $233,381 in March 2012, up from $225,463 in February 2012.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.05 percent from 4.10 percent,with points increasing to 0.45 from 0.43 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2012 07:58:00 PM

This might speed up the short sale approval process, from Freddie Mac: Communication Time Lines for Short Sales

The new requirements introduce specific response time frames for certain activities in the short sale process ... Effective for new evaluations conducted on or after June 15, 2012, Servicers must comply with the following minimum communication time frames for all short sales. If feasible, Servicers are encouraged to implement these changes prior to the effective date of June 15, 2012.

Here is a key section:

Within five days of an evaluation decision, but no later than 30 days following receipt of a complete BRP [Borrower Response Package], the Servicer must provide to the Borrower an evaluation decision and send the appropriate Borrower Evaluation Notice in accordance with Section 64.6(d)(5).
...
There may be some situations in which a Servicer will be unable to provide a decision within 30 days following receipt of a complete BRP (e.g., extended negotiations with the MI). In such cases, the Servicer must notify the Borrower within the 30 day time limit that the BRP is still under review and each week thereafter provide the Borrower a status update indicating the reason(s) why a decision is pending. The weekly status updates may be communicated verbally or in writing. However, the Servicer must provide the Borrower with a decision and send the appropriate Borrower Evaluation Notice no later than 60 days after receipt of a complete BRP.

Fannie Mae is also implementing new timelines.

And on HARP from Mary Ellen Podmolik at the Chicago Tribune: Freddie Mac to ease refinancing program's guidelines for borrowers

Freddie Mac early this week will ease its mortgage underwriting formulas to boost the number of homeowners who qualify for the government's home loan refinancing program.
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In response to complaints from lenders, Freddie Mac this week will undertake a "fine-tuning" of its underwriting process, according to Freddie Mac spokesman Brad German. Specifics of how the automated underwriting models will be altered aren't being disclosed, even to lenders, but some homeowners who have been turned down for the program may now qualify, he said.

"It will be a noticeable, positive change for the homeowner," German said. "It will help increase the number of borrowers who can refinance under HARP and take advantage of today's rates."

Mortgage broker Soylent Green is People writes: "So many HARP eligible loans diagnosed as EA-I to EA-3 (EA = Expanded Approval, code for “unacceptable risk” to many lenders) the Agencies are feeling the heat from borrowers turned away and changing how their AU systems score loans."

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2012 04:38:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland Home Sales Up; Median Price Almost Back to Year-Ago Level

Southern California home sales shot up last month from February amid the usual surge in late-winter shopping, but the gain over a year earlier was modest.
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A total of 19,953 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 28.1 percent from 15,573 in February, and up 2.8 percent from 19,412 in March 2011, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

... On a year-over-year basis, Southland sales have increased for three consecutive months, and for seven out of the last eight months. However, last month’s Southland sales total was still 18.6 percent below the average for all the months of March since 1988.
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“The year is young and lots could still change, but the results from the first big sales month of 2012 suggest the market is stuck in low gear. This remains a very gradual – not to mention fragile – recovery. Last month's big gain in sales from February was seasonal. A lot more people get out and shop after the holidays and as spring approaches. More telling was the relatively small gain in sales activity compared with a year ago. It's a reminder that, for many potential buyers, lower prices and amazingly low mortgage rates still aren’t enough to get them over their hurdles: tight credit, home values below what they owe on their mortgages, and uncertainties over the economy and home prices,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

And on distressed sales:

Distressed sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and “short” sales – made up about half of last month’s resale market.

Foreclosure resales – properties foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 31.1 percent of the resale market last month, down from 32.1 percent in February and down from 36.0 percent a year earlier. Last month’s figure was the lowest since foreclosure resales were 28.6 percent of the resale market in January 2008. In the current cycle, the figure hit a high of 56.7 percent in February 2009.

Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 18.9 percent of Southland resales last month. That compares with 20.4 percent the month before and 18.5 percent a year earlier.

Distressed sales are very high at about 50% of the market, but the percentage is down from 54.5% a year ago. Cash purchasers accounted for 31.7% of all purchases (frequently investor buying).

The NAR will report March existing home sales on Thursday.

Note: I usually ignore the median prices because it is impacted by changes in the mix of homes sold.