by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings in September was 3.6 million, essentially unchanged from August.
...
The level of total nonfarm job openings in September was up from 2.4 million at the end of the recession in June 2009.
...
In September, the quits rate was little changed for total nonfarm, total private, and government. The number of quits was 2.0 million in September compared to 1.8 million at the end of the recession in June 2009.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for September, the most recent employment report was for August.

Click on graph for larger image.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 3.561 million, down slightly from 3.661 million in August. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are only up about 2% year-over-year compared to September 2011.

Quits decreased in September, and quits are down slightly year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

The trend suggests a gradually improving labor market.

All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2012 08:51:00 AM

From Masa Serdarevic at the Financial Times Alphaville: Athens grinds to a halt

The Greek parliament will vote late Wednesday on the structural reforms and budget cuts demanded by the Troika. Reports suggest that the government will be able to get a majority. But in a last minute attempt to derail the vote, the country’s two main labour unions called a 48 hour general strike that started today.

Alphaville has some photos of the strike - it looks like a complete mess. Live footage of the strike is here (or talking heads).

From the WSJ: Europe, Central Bank Spar Over Athens Aid

Europe's governments and the European Central Bank are at odds about who should shoulder the financial burden of giving Greece more time to repay its loans and remain part of the euro zone.

The search for a solution for Greece, whether by forgiving some of the money it owes or giving it yet more bailout loans, has come back to haunt the currency union ahead of the ECB's monthly policy meeting on Thursday.

Greece faces a key Treasury-bill repayment in less than two weeks, and the money isn't there unless governments provide additional aid or the ECB agrees to lend Greek banks the money to roll over the debt.

Still no way out.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2012 08:02:00 PM

The key event tomorrow is the US election.

Brad Plumer at the WaPo lists a number of projections: Pundit accountability: The official 2012 election prediction thread

Here are the electoral vote predictions from various modelers, political scientists and pundits from around the Internet. All predictions are as of Monday evening. And yes, this will be a fun thread to revisit the day after the election.

There is quite a range of predictions. As I've noted, my economic forecasts assume President Obama will be reelected.

Ezra Klein had a great piece today: Neither Obama nor Romney will turn America into a bleak hellscape

We’re at the end of a long and bitter election, and so perhaps it’s worth taking a deep breath and admitting something that typically doesn’t get said until one candidate or the other delivers his concession speech: America will survive either way. Which isn’t to say the policy differences between the candidates aren’t real, and large. They are. But it’s not the end-times showdown that the two sides often suggest.

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September will be released by the BLS. The number of job openings has generally been trending up, and openings were up about 13% year-over-year compared to August 2011.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2012 04:54:00 PM

On Sunday I noted that October seasonal retail hiring gives a pretty good hint about holiday retail sales, see Retail: Seasonal Hiring vs. Retail Sales

The WSJ reports today: U.S. Retailers Expect Best Holiday Season Since 2007

Leading U.S. retailers expect a 3.7% increase in holiday same-store sales, according to a new survey by BDO USA.

“While we haven’t returned to pre-recession levels of optimism, retailers are gearing up for what looks to be a promising holiday season,” said Doug Hart, partner in the retail and consumer product practice at BDO. “Still, consumers have more choices than ever, and retailers are looking to avoid showrooming by curating a mix of exclusive and top-selling products to get consumers in their door or on their site.”

BDO said despite uncertainty about how the presidential election will affect the economy and consumer spending, the expected increase marks the survey’s most optimistic forecast since 2007, when marketing heads projected a 5% increase in same-store sales.

However Hurricane Sandy might have a negative impact, from the NY Times: A Storm-Battered Supply Chain Threatens Holiday Shopping

In addition to shutting down shipping terminals and submerging warehouses, the storm also tangled up deliveries because of downed power lines, closed roads and scarce gasoline in parts of New York and New Jersey.

The supply chain is backing up at a crucial time, just as retailers normally bring their final shipments into stores for the holiday shopping season, which retailers depend on for annual profitability.

“Things are slowing down,” said Chris Merritt, vice president for retail supply chain solutions at the trucking company Ryder. “This whole part of the supply chain is clogged up.”

But overall I expect a decent holiday shopping season.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2012 02:22:00 PM

Here is another update using inventory numbers from HousingTracker / DeptofNumbers to track changes in listed inventory. Tom Lawler mentioned this last year.

According to the deptofnumbers.com for (54 metro areas), inventory is off 26.8% compared to the same week last year. However Hurricane Sandy clearly played a role; inventory in New York was off 55% week-over-week, Philadelphia off 66%, and Newark off 25%.

But even after adjusting for the areas impacted by Hurricane Sandy, overall inventory is down 22% year-over-year and probably at the lowest level since the early '00s.

This graph shows the NAR estimate of existing home inventory through September (left axis) and the HousingTracker data for the 54 metro areas through early November.

Click on graph for larger image.

Since the NAR released their revisions for sales and inventory last year, the NAR and HousingTracker inventory numbers have tracked pretty well.

On a seasonal basis, housing inventory usually bottoms in December and January and then increases through the summer. So inventory will probably decline for the next several months before increasing again next year.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in inventory for both the NAR and HousingTracker.

HousingTracker reported that the early November listings, for the 54 metro areas, declined 26.8% from the same period last year.

The year-over-year declines will probably start to get smaller since inventory is already pretty low. Barring a major disaster, it seems very unlikely we will see 20%+ year-over-year declines next summer!