by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2012 09:59:00 AM

Case-Shiller reported the fourth consecutive year-over-year (YoY) gain in their house price indexes since 2010 - and the increase back in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit. Excluding the tax credit, the previous YoY increase was back in 2006. The YoY increase in September suggests that house prices probably bottomed earlier this year (the YoY change lags the turning point for prices).

The following table shows the year-over-year increase for each month this year.

Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index
Month	YoY Change
Jan-12	-3.9%
Feb-12	-3.5%
Mar-12	-2.5%
Apr-12	-1.7%
May-12	-0.5%
Jun-12	0.6%
Jul-12	1.1%
Aug-12	1.9%
Sep-12	3.0%
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13

On a not seasonally adjusted basis (NSA), Case-Shiller house prices will probably start to decline month-to-month in October. But I think prices will remain above the post-bubble lows set earlier this year.

Note: S&P reports the NSA, the following graphs use the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 31.4% from the peak, and up 0.3% in September (SA). The Composite 10 is up 4.2% from the post bubble low set in January 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 30.7% from the peak, and up 0.4% (SA) in September. The Composite 20 is up 4.7% from the post-bubble low set in January 2012 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 2.1% compared to September 2011.

The Composite 20 SA is up 3.0% compared to September 2011. This was the fourth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain since 2010 (when the tax credit boosted prices temporarily).

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Prices increased (SA) in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in September seasonally adjusted (15 of 20 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 59.1% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 4.8% from the peak. Note that the red column (cumulative decline through September 2012) is above previous declines for all cities.

I'll have more on house prices later.

by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2012 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September (a 3 month average of July, August and September).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities), and the quarterly National Index.

From S&P: Home Prices Rise for the Sixth Straight Month According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through September 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... showed that home prices continued to rise in the third quarter of 2012. The national composite was up 3.6% in the third quarter of 2012 versus the third quarter of 2011, and was up 2.2% versus the second quarter of 2012. In September 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites showed annual returns of +2.1% and +3.0%. Average home prices in the 10- and 20-City Composites were each up by 0.3% in September versus August 2012. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in September versus August 2012; Detroit and Washington D.C. recorded a slight deceleration in their annual rates, and New York saw no change.

“Home prices rose in the third quarter, marking the sixth consecutive month of increasing prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In September’s report all three headline composites and 17 of the 20 cities gained over their levels of a year ago. Month-over-month, 13 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains.

“The National Composite increased by 3.6% from the same quarter in 2011 and by 2.2% from the second quarter of 2012. The 10- and 20-City Composites have posted positive annual returns for four consecutive months with a +2.1% and +3.0% annual change in September, respectively. Month-over-month, both Composites have recorded increases for six consecutive months, with the most recent monthly gain being +0.3% for each Composite.

“We are entering the seasonally weak part of the year. The headline figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed five cities with lower prices in September versus only one in August; in the seasonally adjusted data the pattern was reversed: one city fell in September versus two in August. Despite the seasons, housing continues to improve.

This was about at the consensus forecast and the recent change to a year-over-year increase is a significant story. I'll have graphs and more on prices later (S&P's website is having a problem).

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2012 09:01:00 PM

First, on Greece, here is the Eurogroup statement on Greece.  Excerpt:

The Eurogroup was informed that Greece is considering certain debt reduction measures in the near future, which may involve public debt tender purchases of the various categories of sovereign obligations. If this is the route chosen, any tender or exchange prices are expected to be no higher than those at the close on Friday, 23 November 2012.

This buy-back lacks details such as the source of money for the buy-backs and how much debt will be bought. The IMF will wait to disburse funds until the results of the buy-backs are known (that was my understanding from the press conference).

From the WSJ: Greece's Creditors Reach Deal on New Aid

From the NY Times: European Finance Ministers Agree on Greek Bailout Terms

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.8% decrease in durable goods orders.

• At 9:00 AM, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September will be released. Although this is the September report, it is really a 3 month average of July, August and September. The consensus is for a 2.9% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for September. This release also includes the Q3 Case-Shiller National index.

• At 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to -8 for this survey from -7 in October (below zero is contraction).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the FHFA House Price Index for September 2012 will be released. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic). The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in house prices.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November. The consensus is for an increase to 72.8 from 72.2 last month.

• At 3:00 PM: the New York Fed will release the Q3 Report on Household Debt and Credit.



Another question for the November economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2012 07:38:00 PM

Press conference here.

From Reuters: Euro zone, IMF reach deal on long-term Greek debt

Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund clinched agreement on a new debt target for Greece on Monday in a breakthrough towards releasing an urgently needed tranche of loans to the near-bankrupt economy, officials said.

After nearly 10 hours of talks at their third meeting on the issue in as many weeks, Greece's international lenders agreed to reduce Greek debt by 40 billion euros, cutting it to 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, via a package of steps.

From AlphaVille: A mere three weeks later, a Greek debt deal (?)

UPDATE: Press release here: Eurogroup statement on Greece.

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2012 07:10:00 PM

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, LPS, Zillow, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. LPS uses September closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From LPS: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 3.6 Percent Year-Over-Year

Lender Processing Services ... today released its latest LPS Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on September 2012 residential real estate transactions. The LPS HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 15,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The LPS HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The LPS HPI is off 22.8% from the peak in June 2006. Note: The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs. LPS shows prices off 54.4% from the peak in Las Vegas, 46% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire), and barely off in Austin and Houston.

Looking at the year-over-year price change, in May, the LPS HPI was up 0.4% year-over-year, in June the index was up 0.9% year-over-year, 1.8% in July, 2.6% in August, and now 3.6% in September. This is steady improvement on a year-over-year basis. Note: Case-Shiller for September will be released tomorrow morning.